Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 31 to Nov 04,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10734
R2 10333
R1 10125
Avg 9724
S1 9516
S2 9115
S3 8907

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10564     Trgt 2
H5 10408     Trgt 1
H4 10251     Long breakout
H3 10084     Go Short
H2 10028
H1  9972
L1  9861
L2  9805
L3  9749    Long
L4  9582   Short Breakout
L5  9425    Trgt 1
L6  9269   Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(28-10-2011)

Blasting global cues,huge gap up and whole day trading above 05-08-2011 gap highest(5323) are the main features of today. Nifty is closing above 200-Day EMA and Long term trend is turning up as well as today intra day charts are also suggesting consolidations patterns therefore new phase of up moves is expected from coming sessions.

As minor selling indications at higher levels between 5350-5265 therefore on confirmation is required through sustaining above 5365.

Mid-session Outlook-2(28-10-2011)

As sentiment is most heated today therefore Indian markets slipped from higher levels after minor profit booking but until nifty will not sustain below 5323 till then any type of down moves will not be considered and outlook will remain bullish.

US futures are in Red and European markets are trading with minor gains because these markets have rallied strong in last couple of sessions but Indian markets have to react on last 2 sessions global markets rally therefore only minor intraday correction will be seen and finally sustaining above 5323 is expected.

Although market slipped from higher levels but today intraday patterns are showing consolidation formation therefore up moves outlook is maintained after 54 sessions range forceful break out  today.

Mid-session Outlook(28-10-2011)

Nifty is trading with intraday consolidation patterns between 5336-5354 after huge gap up opening therefore expected that Nifty will sustain above 5338 and long term trend will be up. As 54 sessions break out confirmation also today therefore high possibility of strong rally in the coming sessions and months.

Indian markets Outlook after Eurozone Debt Agreement

Technical Analysis and Research For 28-10-2011

US and all the European markets are 1.60% to 5.2% up today after eurozone debt agreement came early on 27-10-2011 and Global markets are celebrating Indian Diwali through blasting rally.


Nifty had been range bound between 4720-5229 for the last 54 Sessions after 94 Points gap down opening on 05-08-2011(5323-5229) and Expected that Indian markets will also react in the same manner and huge gap up opening will be seen on 28-10-2011.

Nifty closed at 5202 on Diwali Muhurat sessions and minimum 2% gap up opening expected tomorrow in Indian markets. Finally filling of 05-08-2011 gap and sustaining above 5323 will be confirmation of one year old correction completion. 200-Day EMA is at 5338 and sustaining above will mean all trends turning up as well.

New phase of up moves will begin from 28-10-2011 after huge gap up opening and up ward break out of 54 Sessions range. Expected that Nifty will firstly sustain above 5323 and all trends will be up through sustaining above 5338. Although resistances at higher levels but continuous higher levels consolidation and strong rally will be seen in the coming sessions,weeks and months.

Eurozone debt problems resolved and strong indication of one year correction completion confirmation on 28-10-2011. Sustaining above 5323 will also be 5th wave begining confirmation and that will also mean high possibility of new all time high formation in 2012.

Nifty-EOD Chart with projected up moves(26-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Detailed analysis have already been posted in following topic therefore not being repeated. Just click following link and go through:-

Indian markets Correction from Diwali-2010 to Diwali-2011

Indian markets Correction from Diwali-2010 to Diwali-2011

Diwali Muhurat trading Outlook(26-10-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(25-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Firstly 9 months Correction from Muhurat Trading on 05-11-2010 at 6338.50
2- 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011(5323-5229)
3- After that 54 sessions range bound market between 4720-5229.
4- Closing at the top of 54 sessions on 25-10-2011

Conclusions

Correction commenced from Muhurat Trading on 05-11-2010 at 6338.50 and after 9 months correction Indian markets are range bound between 4720-5229 for the last 54 sessions. It is the character of financial markets that sometimes they are used to turn range bound and prepare for  decisive strong move. Indian markets remained range bound 5 months after 2008 crashing like correction and after that more than 3800 Nifty points rally was seen from March 2009.

Nifty closed at the top of 54 sessions range after strong rally yesterday and correction completion possibilities have also emerged. Muhurat Trading-2011 will be seen in the strong sentiment and also in expectation of strong rally after 54 sessions correction completion.

Last 54 sessions trading range high is at 5229 and expected that finally Indian markets will cross and sustain above it but confirmation is must and that will be after the filling of 94 points gap 05-08-2011 and crossing of gap high at 5323.

As sentiment is heated therefore very short term correction is expected and if Nifty does not sustain below 5160 in expected correction and cross as well as sustain above 5229 then 54 sessions range bound market break out confirmation will be after filling of 5th Aug 2011 gap and crossing 5323.

Indian markets will trade in most heated sentiment during Muhurat Trading today therefore profit booking may be seen and should wait for correction completion before investment. Sentiment is celebrating Diwali after yesterday blasting up moves therefore next moves confirmation should be drawn from following 2 ranges:-

1- 5180-5220(First indication)
2- 5160-5240(Confirmation)

Happy Deepawali

Markets will be open from 4:30 p.m.(pre-open inclusive) to 6:00 p.m for Muhurat Trading on October 26th, 2011

Muhurat Trading Outlook(Diwali-2011) will be updated within 4 hours

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Nov-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long white Candle.
2- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
3- All the Indices closed near day's highs and in Green but Banking Index,Small Cap and CD closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.90
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Nov-2011): 18.39

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1331
BSE DECLINES : 1442
NSE ADVANCES :  655
NSE DECLINES :  760

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Nov)- -37950(-3.10%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Nov)- +1419900(+45.63%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Nov)- +199400(+10.33%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Nov)- +1564200(+95.60%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Nov)- +601650(+23.98%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Nov)- +876200(+163.61%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Nov)- +1122400(+54.97%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Nov)- +94000(+32.41%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,191.60(+93.25 Points & +1.83%)
Sensex- closed at 17,254.86(+315.58 Points & +1.86% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,010.15(+27.95 Points & +0.40%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,800.68(-5.00 Points & -0.07%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Oct-2011 3678.07 3233.31 444.76

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Oct-2011 1341.45 2220.91 -879.46

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-10-2011

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 5418
R2 5333
R1 5281
Avg 5196
S1 5144
S2 5059
S3 5007

Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5369     Trgt 2
H5 5336     Trgt 1
H4 5304     Long breakout
H3 5266     Go Short
H2 5254
H1 5241
L1 5216
L2 5203
L3 5191     Long
L4 5153     Short Breakout
L5 5121     Trgt 1
L6 5088     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Levels

R3 10359
R2 10117
R1 9844
Avg 9602
S1 9329
S2 9087
S3 8814

Bank Nifty(Nov Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10097     Trgt 2
H5  9975     Trgt 1
H4  9854     Long breakout
H3  9712     Go Short
H2  9665
H1  9618
L1  9523
L2  9476
L3  9429    Long
L4  9287    Short Breakout
L5  9166    Trgt 1
L6  9044    Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5365
R2 5288
R1 5239
Avg 5162
S1 5113
S2 5036
S3 4987

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5319     Trgt 2
H5 5289     Trgt 1
H4 5260     Long breakout
H3 5225     Go Short
H2 5214
H1 5202
L1 5179
L2 5167
L3 5156     Long
L4 5121     Short Breakout
L5 5092     Trgt 1
L6 5062     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-10-2011)

Firstly RBI credit policy led high volatility and then crossing 5145 are main features of today trading. Sustaining above 5145 in the coming couple of sessions will be strong indication of 53 sessions range upward break out and confirmation will be sustaining above 5229.

On going correction begun on deepawali-2010 and Muhurat trading of Deepawali-2011 trading will be celebreated on the expectation of correction completion. Finally sustaining above 5229 will be Deepawali-2011 gift to Indian Stock Markets and it is expected also in the coming sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(25-10-2011)

Following line was told in Pre-open Outlook today

Indian markets will discount all the good/bad news between 5085-5145 and break out of this range will give confirmation of next medium term trend in the coming couple of sessions.

Today trading range amid high volatility is 5085.55-5154.60

Let market preapre for next moves between 5085-5145 and next big moves confirmation will be either force ful breaking out or sustaining beyond mentioned range. Market is stabilising now and conclusions from intraday charts formation will be updated in the coming outlooks after next moves confirmations.

High volatility after credit policy today.

We told for high volatility and stop losses triggering in today outlooks and it is visible in following today intraday chart of 11;17am today.

Sustaining beyond 5085-5145 will be next moves confirmation in such volatile markets therefore should be watched today for confirmations today.

Post-open Outlook(25-10-2011)

Indian markets are quiet today morning but today RBI rates hike uncertainties and high volatility is possible after RBI credit policy announcemet today. As Global news and cues based markets also nowadays therefore first of all 5110-5145 break out and sustaining beyond should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Cautious approach is required today because high volatility is possible just before or after Credit policy announcement and stop losses may be triggered. 

NIFTY-Oct F&O-1st Shorting of 24-10-2011-Covering

NIFTY-Oct F&O-Shorted on 24-10-2011-Credit policy today and market will be volatile.Cover immediately-CMP-5120

Pre-open Outlook(25-10-2011)

RBI presented Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments - Second Quarter Review 2011-12 after trading hours yesterday and after this review it is also possible that RBI may pause may rates hike today. uncertainties may remain high before RBI credit policy and resultant Indian markets may also be highly volatile. Indian markets will discount all the good/bad news between 5085-5145 and break out of this range will give confirmation of next medium term trend in the coming couple of sessions.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 25-10-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(24-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 5125-5145
2- Down moves in falling channel.
3- Last 45 minutes mixed patterns between 5086-5103
3- Whole day trading between 5086-5145.

Conclusions

Strong Global cues led gap up opening and 4 hours trading between trading 5125-5145 with selling formations near day's highs today. Old Resistance within 5145-5220 was told in Post-open Outlook today and in Technical Analysis and Research For 24-10-2011 and selling seen today exactly below this range therefore this resistance has strengthened.

Indian Markets are range bound for the last 53 sessions reacting sharply global cues therefore all the patterns should be watched carefully. As good higher levels selling therefore more down moves are expected tomorrow but last 45 minutes mixed patterns between 5086-5103 therefore first of all sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next moves confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-10-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Green Closing
2- Black Candle.
3- All the indices closed near the lows of the day.
4- Benchmark Indices closed with good gains but MIDCAP and SMALL CAP closed in Red.
5- Higher levels good selling therefore more down moves can not be ruled out.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.02
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-10-2011): 18.10

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1264
BSE DECLINES : 1551
NSE ADVANCES :  619
NSE DECLINES :  801

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -959150(-25.04%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- -83550(-1.37%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- -1081700(-19.11%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +217900(+5.98%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Oct)- -31400(-0.37%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Oct)- +821150(+70.64%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,098.35(+48.40 Points & +0.96%)
Sensex- closed at 16,939.28(+153.64 Points & +0.92%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 6,982.20(-25.85 Points & -0.37%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,802.57(-3.11 Points & -0.05%)