Pre-open Outlook(18-10-2011)

All the Asian markets are showing crashing character after US markets more than 1.5% down closing yesterday and Indian markets will also react Global weakness through gap down opening today. Sustaining below 5080 will mean breaking down of last 3 days range and confirmation of 7 days old pull back rally termination as well as beginning of down moves within 48 sessions range bound markets(4720-5229) and next support of 4960-4980 may be tested.

Blog may not be updated in next 2/3 hours.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(18-10-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(17-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 5135-5155
2- Selling between 5121-5133
3- Last 3 hours mixed patterns between 5108-5125
4- Whole day trading between 5086-5155

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(Oct 13 to Oct 17,2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in last 3 sessions intraday charts

1- Last 3 days trading between 5070-5155
2- Buying,Selling and Mixed intraday patterns in last 3 days. 

Conclusions

Lower levels buying,higher levels selling and also mixed intraday patterns in last 3 days. When all the global markets were blasting then we did not posted bullish views because strong resistance at higher levels between 5145-5220. 

US markets are more than 1.75% down at this moment then also we are not bearish because pure selling patterns not seen in last 3 days and it has also been shown in above charts.

Expected that sentiment will be depressed today morning and weak opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Nifty traded between 5080-5155 in last 3 days and sustaining below 5080 is must for the confirmation of 7 days old pull back rally termination.

Violent volatility in Global markets nowadays. US markets were more than 1.5% up last Friday and today down in same pct terms. Indian markets did not responded strong Global cues yesterday and closed with minor loss. Let Indian markets react Global weakness then Indian markets reaction will be understood and will be updated in the Blog as lesser strength was told within first 2 minutes yesterday.

Only watch that Nifty is sustaining below 5080 or not after weak opening today. Something cooked between 5080-5155 in last 3 days and sustaining beyond this range will be next strong moves confirmation therefore will be watched firstly today.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 17-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 17-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 17-Oct-2011 1857.5 1478.79 378.71

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 17-Oct-2011 634.39 955.8 -321.41

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(17-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- Black Candle.
3- No clear trend and most Indices closed with minor gains/loss

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.12
Nifty P/E Ratio(17-Oct-2011): 18.50

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1314
BSE DECLINES : 1453
NSE ADVANCES :  669
NSE DECLINES :  761

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -36500(-1.29%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- -28300(-0.43%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- +1269500(+30.21%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +121650(+2.89%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Oct)- +1069150(+16.90%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Oct)- +74450(+5.25%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,118.25(-14.05 Points & -0.27%)
Sensex- closed at 17,025.09(-57.60 Points & -0.34% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,139.55(+3.60 Points & +0.05%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,922.97(+15.01 Points & +0.22%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5233
R2 5196
R1 5157
Avg 5120
S1 5081
S2 5044
S3 5005

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5194     Trgt 2
H5 5177     Trgt 1
H4 5159     Long breakout
H3 5138     Go Short
H2 5131
H1 5124
L1 5111
L2 5104
L3 5097     Long
L4 5076     Short Breakout
L5 5058     Trgt 1
L6 5041     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5238
R2 5200
R1 5157
Avg 5119
S1 5076
S2 5038
S3 4995

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5196     Trgt 2
H5 5178     Trgt 1
H4 5159     Long breakout
H3 5137     Go Short
H2 5129
H1 5122
L1 5107
L2 5100
L3 5092     Long
L4 5070     Short Breakout
L5 5051     Trgt 1
L6 5033     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 18-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9906
R2 9847
R1 9774
Avg 9715
S1 9642
S2 9583
S3 9510

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9834     Trgt 2
H5 9804     Trgt 1
H4 9774     Long breakout
H3 9738     Go Short
H2 9726
H1 9714
L1 9689
L2 9677
L3 9665     Long
L4 9629     Short Breakout
L5 9599     Trgt 1
L6 9569     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(17-10-2011)

Following lines were told in Pre-Closing Outlook(14-10-2011)

last 90 minutes intraday patterns are also showing mixed formations therefore sustaining beyond 5112-5140 will be firstly watched for confirmation on next Monday.

Today intraday charts are showing that Nifty traded most of the time between last Friday range(5112-5140) and again traded with mixed intraday patterns in last 3 hours between 5108-5125.

It is clear that next strong moves have been cooked between 5108-5140 in last 2 days and this range break out will give following decisive moves:-

1- Termination of 6 days old pull back rally below 5108/5085 or
2- Continuation of rally above 5125/5160 but strong resistances at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required.

Mixed intraday patterns therefore will be safer to get confirmation through break out of above mentioned ranges for next strong trend.

Mid-session Outlook(17-10-2011)

Although gap up opening but was not strong therefore it was updated within  first 2 minutes after opening in Post-open Outlook today and Nifty slipped also more than 30 points after our above message.

Minor intraday selling seen at higher levels today and until Nifty will not cross 5155 till then next up move will not be considered but market require complete formations for any side decisive moves and will prepare in the coming hpurs for that.

Intraday selling after lesser strength opening is weakness signal and sustaining below 5112 will be down moves confirmation. Indian markets are trading within mentioned range(5112-5172) since opening today and its break out will be next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(17-10-2011)

Gap up opening today but not strong.

Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions

Technical Analysis and Research For 17-10-2011

Nifty-EOD Chart(14-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions range bound market
2- Falling Trend line break out last Friday

Conclusions

Correction begun on Deepawali-2010 from 6339 and range bound market within 4720-5229 in last 47 sessions. Many times Market take pause,become range bound and prepare for next moves. Indian markets remained range boud 5 months after 2008 crash and then strong rally begun in March 2009 and same possibility can not be ruled out this time also.

Bullish'W' Pattern in last 47 sessions range bound market,falling trend line break out last Friday and gap up opening will be seen today after strong global cues today morning. Nifty will trade between strong resistance range(5145-5220) today and follow up consolidation is must in the coming sessions for crossing and sustaining above 5229.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves within 5112-5172. As heated sentiment therefore profit booking possibility will also be kept in mind. Mentioned range will be watched first and break out of this range will be result of next moves today preparation as well as confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5112-5220.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook(17-10-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(14-Oct-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 5073-5100
2- Last 90 minutes mixed patterns 5112-5140
3- Whole day trading between 5073-5141

Conclusions

Good lower levels consolidations last friday but next strong resistances are between 5145-5220 and mixed trading patterns also seen last Friday between 5073-5141 therefore Indian markets require complete consolidation firstly to cross 5141 and then finally to sustain above 5229.

Expected that sentiment will be strong Monday morning due to following reasons;-

1- Good RIL results last Saturday.
2- US market strong rally last Friday.
3- Indian markets benchmark Indices closing more than 1% up last Friday. 

Coming couple of sessions will be crucial for deciding the net conclusion of last 47 sessions range bound market(4720-5229). It is confirm that market require complete consolidation to clear next strong resistances(5145-5220) therefore Follow up buying/selling intraday patterns will be firstly watched for first indication of next big moves and will be updated in the Mid-session Outlooks in the Blog as being done for the last one year.

All the possibilities are very much open at this moment and Indian markets are not prepared for any side trending market therefore no guessing and let market prepare for a decisive market after(or without) break out then final conclusions will be drawn accrding to markets positions and intraday charts formations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(14-Oct-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White candle.
2- All the Indices closed in Green except metals.
3- Whole day up moves and trading between last resistance range of last 47 trading sessions.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.17 
Nifty P/E Ratio(14-Oct-2011): 18.55

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1419
BSE DECLINES : 1361
NSE ADVANCES :  735
NSE DECLINES :  687

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5000 CE(Oct)- -416850(-12.74%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Oct)- +1284150(+23.00%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Oct)- -626550(-12.59%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Oct)- +1507700(+53.94%)

Nifty- 5200 CE(Oct)- +71100(+1.11%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Oct)- +478200(+48.90%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,131.35(+54.45 Points & +1.07%)
Sensex- closed at 17,082.69(+198.77 Points & +1.18% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,133.45(+29.55 Points & +0.42%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 6,907.96(+21.69 Points & +0.31%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5247
R2 5194
R1 5162
Avg 5109
S1 5077
S2 5024
S3 4992

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5217     Trgt 2
H5 5197     Trgt 1
H4 5177     Long breakout
H3 5154     Go Short
H2 5146
H1 5138
L1 5123
L2 5115
L3 5107     Long
L4 5084     Short Breakout
L5 5064     Trgt 1
L6 5044     Trgt 2

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 5275
R2 5214
R1 5178
Avg 5117
S1 5081
S2 5020
S3 4984

Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5241     Trgt 2
H5 5219     Trgt 1
H4 5196     Long breakout
H3 5169     Go Short
H2 5160
H1 5151
L1 5134
L2 5125
L3 5116     Long
L4 5089     Short Breakout
L5 5066     Trgt 1
L6 5044     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-10-2011

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Levels

R3 9967
R2 9833
R1 9753
Avg 9619
S1 9539
S2 9405
S3 9325

Bank Nifty(Oct Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9892     Trgt 2
H5 9841     Trgt 1
H4 9791     Long breakout
H3 9732     Go Short
H2 9713
H1 9693
L1 9654
L2 9634
L3 9615     Long
L4 9556     Short Breakout
L5 9506     Trgt 1
L6 9455     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5479
R2 5310
R1 5220
Avg 5051
S1 4961
S2 4792
S3 4702

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5403     Trgt 2
H5 5338     Trgt 1
H4 5273     Long breakout
H3 5202     Go Short
H2 5178
H1 5154
L1 5107
L2 5083
L3 5059     Long
L4 4988     Short Breakout
L5 4923     Trgt 1
L6 4858     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Oct 17 to Oct 21,2011)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 10616
R2 10154
R1 9907
Avg 9445
S1 9198
S2 8736
S3 8489

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 10422     Trgt 2
H5 10236     Trgt 1
H4 10049     Long breakout
H3 9854      Go Short
H2 9789
H1 9724
L1 9595
L2 9530
L3 9465     Long
L4 9270     Short Breakout
L5 9083     Trgt 1
L6 8897     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 14-Oct-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 14-Oct-2011 1921.6 2015.64 -94.04

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 14-Oct-2011 894.46 1132.31 -237.85