Long Term Trend Deciding 25 Sessions Range(4720-5229)

Technical Analysis and Research

Nifty-EOD Chart(13-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 10 Months Bearish market
2- 94 Points Gap  on 05-08-2011
3- 25 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229

Conclusions

All trends are down and Indian markets are slipping for the last 10 months. Nifty opened 94 points gap down on 05-08-2011 and since then 25 sessions range bound markets between 4720-5229.

Markets always require completion consolidation for any rally after such big fall. Big rally started in March 2009 after lower level 5 monthe range bound consolidations. As range bound markets signals are emerging between 4720-5229 therefore this range break out will decide that 10 months long long term correction is over or not.Investment decisions,long term positions and Portfolio management should be done according to break out of mentioned range.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 14-09-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(13-Sep-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling between 5020-5028
2- Minor buying between 4912-4936
3- Whole day trading between 4912-5028

Conclusions

All intraday positions are minor and closing is also with minor loss today. Crucial support range of 4948-5000 has been broken down but support also seen at yesterday support range(4913-4928). All trends are down and sustaining below 4912 will mean sharp fall and high possibility of 4720 retesting but freh selling rerequired for sustaining below 4912.

As both support and resistance between today trading range therefore Nifty will first trade between today range tomorrow and prepare for next moves. Follow up buying/selling will give indication that Nifty is moving up or down and sustaining beyond today range(4912-5028) will be confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-Sep-2011 1281.69 1750.1 -468.41

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-Sep-2011 877.27 756.08 121.19

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(13-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing with minor loss.
2- All the Indices closed with with minor loss/gains.
3- Sharp intraday declines.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.14
Nifty P/E Ratio(13-Sep-2011): 17.84

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1395
BSE DECLINES : 1422
NSE ADVANCES :  720
NSE DECLINES :  712

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- +60550(+1.58%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +94400(+1.63%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +1373300(+26.45%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- +179100(+3.22%)

Nifty- 5100 CE(Sep)- +702750(+15.21%)
Nifty- 5100 PE(Sep)- -21050(-0.73%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,940.95(-5.85 Points & -0.12%)
Sensex- closed at 16,467.44(-34.30 Points & -0.21% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,240.50(+4.90 Points & +0.07%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,169.07(+1.01 Points & +0.01%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5053
R2 5019
R1 4979
Avg 4945
S1 4905
S2 4871
S3 4831

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5014     Trgt 2
H5 4997     Trgt 1
H4 4980     Long breakout
H3 4960     Go Short
H2 4953
H1 4946
L1 4933
L2 4926
L3 4919     Long
L4 4899     Short Breakout
L5 4882     Trgt 1
L6 4865     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5156
R2 5098
R1 5019
Avg 4961
S1 4882
S2 4824
S3 4745

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5079     Trgt 2
H5 5047     Trgt 1
H4 5016     Long breakout
H3 4978     Go Short
H2 4966
H1 4953
L1 4928
L2 4915
L3 4903     Long
L4 4865     Short Breakout
L5 4834     Trgt 1
L6 4802     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9838
R2 9702
R1 9522
Avg 9386
S1 9206
S2 9070
S3 8890

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9661     Trgt 2
H5 9588     Trgt 1
H4 9515     Long breakout
H3 9428     Go Short
H2 9399
H1 9370
L1 9313
L2 9284
L3 9255     Long
L4 9168     Short Breakout
L5 9095     Trgt 1
L6 9022     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(13-09-2011)

Sharp slipping after intraday selling between 5020-5028 but support at lower level also between 4912-4936 after yesterday intraday buying between 4913-4928.

All trends are down and Higher levels selling today but lower levels support also at 4912 for the last 2 sessions also therefore I shall repeat following conclusive lines of yesterday Pre-Closing Outlook:-

1- Nifty will first trade between today range in the coming sessions and prepare for next moves.


2- As today sessions is showing lower levels buying and higher levels therefore tommorrow follow up buying/selling will give indication that Nifty is moving up or down.

Market Outlook-2(13-09-2011)

As soon as selling seen and resistance developed between 5020-5028 then it was immediately updated in today Market Outlook when Nifty was trading above 5010. All trends are down,Indian markets are bearish and such down moves are very much possible after resistance formations therefore it was told well before the beginning of down moves.


Higher levels selling today and Nifty is trading between yesterday range 4912-4985. Nifty got support between 4913-4928 yesterday and slipping below 4912 will mean sharp fall.

Market Outlook(13-09-2011)

Sustained above 5000 and traded also 2 hours above but intraday resistance also seen between 5020-5028

Post-open Outlook-2(13--09-2011)

Nifty has given  sustaining above 5000 confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(13-09-2011)

Following conclusive line was told in today Technical Analysis & Market Outlook

Upside break out possibilities are high 

As was concluded same happened within first 5 minutes today and moved above 5000. Nifty sustaining above 5000 will be confirmations.

Technical Analysis & Market Outlook(13-09-2011)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(12-Sep-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in intraday chart

1- Selling between 4965-4980
2- Buying between 4913-4928
3- Mixed Patterns between 4937-4963
4- Whole day trading between 4912-4985

Conclusions

All trends are down and Pull Back rally is on from 4720 which retraced from 5169. Crucial support range and Pull Back rally saviour is between 4948-5000 and it was broken down also yesterday on the back of disappointing IIP data and crashing Global markets.

Indian markets are not mature for any side decisive moves today because higher levels selling and lower levels buying yesterday and follow up buying/selling will decide next direction today. Indian markets will prepare for next moves between yesterday range and its break out as well as sustaining beyond will be next moves confirmations.

Global cues are more or less positive today morning and Indian markets also recovered from yesterday lower levels yesterday therefore Nifty will firstly trade between 4930-4980 after positive opening and its break out will be next moves first indication as well as sustaining beyond 4912-4985 will be next decisive move confirmation. Upside break out possibilities are high because Global cues are improving today.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(12-Sep-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- All the Indices closed in Red.
3- Weak global cues led big fall.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.09
Nifty P/E Ratio(12-Sep-2011): 17.86

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 806
BSE DECLINES : 2010
NSE ADVANCES : 285
NSE DECLINES : 1160

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4900 CE(Sep)- +988100(+34.61%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Sep)- +418850(+7.78%)

Nifty- 5000 CE(Sep)- +302050(+5.83%)
Nifty- 5000 PE(Sep)- -1031800(-15.42%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,946.80(-112.65 Points & -2.23%)
Sensex- closed at 16,501.74(-365.23 Points & -2.17% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,235.60(-177.90 Points & -2.40%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,168.06(-135.96 Points & -1.86%)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 12-Sep-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 12-Sep-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 12-Sep-2011 1582.64 2517.38 -934.74

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 12-Sep-2011 1150.9 722.97 427.93

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-09-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5057
R2 5021
R1 4983
Avg 4947
S1 4909
S2 4873
S3 4835

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5020     Trgt 2
H5 5003     Trgt 1
H4 4986     Long breakout
H3 4966     Go Short
H2 4959
H1 4952
L1 4939
L2 4932
L3 4925     Long
L4 4905     Short Breakout
L5 4888     Trgt 1
L6 4871     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-09-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5058
R2 5018
R1 4980
Avg 4940
S1 4902
S2 4862
S3 4824

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5020     Trgt 2
H5 5002     Trgt 1
H4 4984     Long breakout
H3 4963     Go Short
H2 4956
H1 4949
L1 4934
L2 4927
L3 4920     Long
L4 4899     Short Breakout
L5 4881     Trgt 1
L6 4863     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 13-09-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9708
R2 9624
R1 9504
Avg 9420
S1 9300
S2 9216
S3 9096

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9590     Trgt 2
H5 9543     Trgt 1
H4 9497     Long breakout
H3 9441     Go Short
H2 9422
H1 9403
L1 9366
L2 9347
L3 9328     Long
L4 9272     Short Breakout
L5 9226     Trgt 1
L6 9179     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(12--09-2011)

Following line was told today in Just watch Support Range(4948-5000) in Crashing Global Markets

market may be volatile also today.

Nifty slipped below 4948,traded below it more than 2 hours but surged 50 points fast and again moved below 4948. As retail selling develops after disappointing news like today IIP data news therefore intraday support also seen between 4912-4925.

Nifty traded between 4912-4981 today with lower levels buying and higher levels selling therefore Nifty will first trade between today range in the coming sessions and prepare for next moves.

As today sessions is showing lower levels buying and higher levels therefore tommorrow follow up buying/selling will give indication that Nifty is moving up or down.