Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Aug 29 to Sep 02,2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5148
R2 5057
R1 4902
Avg 4811
S1 4656
S2 4565
S3 4410

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 4994     Trgt 2
H5 4938     Trgt 1
H4 4882     Long breakout
H3 4814     Go Short
H2 4792
H1 4769
L1 4724
L2 4701
L3 4679     Long
L4 4611     Short Breakout
L5 4555     Trgt 1
L6 4499     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(26-08-2011)

When Nifty was trading near 4800 then following lines were told in Mid-session Outlook today:-

As intraday selling also seen at higher levels today therefore slipping and sustaining below 4800 possibility is high now.

Nifty slipped and formed bottom at 4720 today and Nifty is trading at 4750 st this moment but Pull Back rally temination confirmation below 4800 therefore more lower levels are expected now.

Mid-session Outlook(26-08-2011)

Indian markets tumbled after the weak opening of European markets. European markets present trading positions are as follows:-

 Germany 30 5464.00 -2.15%
 UK 100 5093.00 5131.10 -0.74%
 France 40 3090.50 -0.91%

Nifty is trading near 4800 for the last 45 minutes. As intraday selling also seen at higher levels today therefore slipping and sustaining below 4800 possibility is high now.

Post-open Outlook-2(26-08-2011)

Although Indian markets closed 1% down yesterday but bearish views were not posted and following lines were told yesterday in Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 26-08-2011

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels and trading at lower levels but intraday trading patterns are not suggesting pure selling today and consolidation patterns are also seen in today intraday chart.

consolidation patterns were told for yesterday and Nifty is 25 points up and Sensex was 90 points up within first 45 minutes today.

Only following line was told again and again for watching:-

watch last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850)

Nifty is trading above 4850 and sustaining above it today will be confirmation of beginning of pull back rally after higher bottom formation therefore just watch it first of all.

Post-open Outlook(26-08-2011)

Indian markets completely ignored Global cues today and firstly traded positive. Today market will reply this question that 5 sessions before started rally is surviving or not. As yesterday intra day patterns did not suggesting selling despite 1% down market and today today outperforming global markets are suggesting to watch last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850) and its survival will decide that:-

1- Deep down below 4798 or
2- Continuation of rally after formation of higher(or double) bottom above 4850.

Hopes of Pull Back Rally survival are completely alive after watching today opening and and first 25 minutes trading.

Pre-open Outlook(26-08-2011)

Although US markets closed more than 1.5% down yesterday but Asian markets are trading with marginal loss and are from .10% to.75% down. Sentiment is moderately weak and Indian markets will open little down and will trade between last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850)

Nifty traded last half hour between last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850) yesterday and coming session will decide that this support is surviving or not. Breaking out of 4798-4850 should be watched first of all for next moves and survival of Pull Back Rally confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Aug-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Aug-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 25-Aug-2011 3102.79 4543.34 -1440.55

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 25-Aug-2011 1271.59 886.58 385.01

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 26-08-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(25-Aug-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Falling Channel
2- Up moves in Rising Channel
3- Mixed Patterns between 5850-5870
4- Whole day trading between 4826-4911

Conclusions

As good selling between 4898-4960 yesterday therefore down moves were seen today despite strong global cues. Today down movs possibility was told in all the outlooks which were updated for today trading.

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels and trading at lower levels but intraday trading patterns are not suggesting pure selling today and consolidation patterns are also seen in today intraday chart.

Nifty traded last half hour between last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850) and coming session will decide that this support is surviving or not. Breaking out of 4798-4850 should be watched first of all for next moves and survival of Pull Back Rally confirmations.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Aug-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long Back Candle.
2- Weak Indian markets despite strong global cues.
3- All the Indices closed in Red except Reality and HC.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Aug-2011): 17.47

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1074
BSE DECLINES : 1712
NSE ADVANCES : 475
NSE DECLINES : 940

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 4800 CE(Aug)- +275750(+20.56%)
Nifty- 4800 PE(Aug)- +675150(+15.52%)

Nifty- 4900 CE(Aug)- +670400(+32.08%)
Nifty- 4900 PE(Aug)- -2107950(-50.90%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 4,839.60(-49.30 Points & -1.01%)
Sensex- closed at 16,146.33(-138.65 Points & -0.85% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,193.15(-73.15 Points & -1.01%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 7,099.61(-59.03 Points & -0.82%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-08-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 4984
R2 4949
R1 4894
Avg 4859
S1 4804
S2 4769
S3 4714

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 4929     Trgt 2
H5 4908     Trgt 1
H4 4888     Long breakout
H3 4863     Go Short
H2 4855
H1 4847
L1 4830
L2 4822
L3 4814     Long
L4 4789     Short Breakout
L5 4769     Trgt 1
L6 4748     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-08-2011

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 4975
R2 4946
R1 4905
Avg 4876
S1 4835
S2 4806
S3 4765

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 4934     Trgt 2
H5 4918     Trgt 1
H4 4902     Long breakout
H3 4883     Go Short
H2 4876
H1 4870
L1 4857
L2 4851
L3 4844     Long
L4 4825     Short Breakout
L5 4809     Trgt 1
L6 4793     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 26-08-2011

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 9579
R2 9488
R1 9346
Avg 9255
S1 9113
S2 9022
S3 8880

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 9437     Trgt 2
H5 9385     Trgt 1
H4 9332     Long breakout
H3 9268     Go Short
H2 9246
H1 9225
L1 9182
L2 9161
L3 9139     Long
L4 9075     Short Breakout
L5 9022     Trgt 1
L6 8970     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(25-08-2011)

Detailed analysis of today market has already been explained in Mid-session Outlook today. Weakness in Indian markets was told in all the outlooks of yesterday and today(anyone may verify) and it was seen also. Nifty is trading between last 5 seesions support range(4798-4850) and coming couple of sessions will decide that this support is surviving or not.

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels and trading at lower levels but intraday trading patterns are not suggesting pure selling today and consolidation patterns are also seen in today intraday chart.

It will be better to get next market first confirmation through sustaining beyond present support range(4798-4850)

Mid-session Outlook(25-08-2011)

As genuine selling patterns between 4898-4960 yesterday therefore weak market was told in all the outlooks. Indian markets completely ignored strong global cues and trading in Red as well as Nifty was 50 points down also at one time.

Following technical positions of last 4 sessions was updated in Pre-open Outlook today and Nifty traded most time today between that zone where no buying or selling told(4850-4898):-

1- Selling between 4898-4960
2- Buying between 4798-4850

Higher levels selling and lower levels buying is well proved and Nifty will prepare for next moves between today range of at this moment today(4839-4915).Just watch folowing ranges dfor deciding next moves:-

1- For next moves first indication 4839-4915
2- For survival or termination of Pull Back rally 4798-4960.

Today and coming sessions intraday charts formation within this range will decide that previous week started rally will survive or not. As Indian markets could cot sustained at higher levels and slipped sharply threfore down moves possibilities turned higher and confirmation will be dipping below 4898.

Post-open Outlook(25-08-2011)

As all the global markets are strong therefore indian markets opened and traded in Green immdiately after opening. Although good selling between 4898-4960 yesterday but sharp surges and voltality may be seen on the back of strong global cues.As good selling yesterday therefore Indian markets are under performing global markets and traded in Red also today.

Good selling between 4898-4960 yesterday therefore if Nifty sustains above 4960 on the back of strong Global cues then next up moves will be considered.Follow up selling and slipping possibility can not be ruled out today also.

NIFTY-Aug F&O-1st Shorting of 24-08-2011-Covering

NIFTY Aug F & O(Shorted on 24-08-2011)-All the Global markets are strong,Cover immediately-4897

Pre-open Outlook(25-08-2011)

Pull Back rally started on 19-08-2011 from 4796 after lower levels consolidations and halted on 24-08-2011 at 4962 after higher levels selling.Technical positions of last 4 sessions are as follows:-

1- Selling between 4898-4960
2- Buying between 4798-4850

Asian markets are strong today after US markets Green closing therefore Indian markets will open positive. As good selling between 4898-4960 yesterday therefore if Nifty sustains above 4960 on the back of strong Global cues then next up moves will be considered.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 24-Aug-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Aug-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 24-Aug-2011 1853.82 2737.3 -883.48

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 24-Aug-2011 1161.68 600.58 561.1

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 25-08-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(24-Aug-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged vie

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 4952-4960
2- Selling between 4898-4925
3- Whole day trading between 4876-4961

Conclusions

Finally whole day selling proved and it is strong indication of Pull Back rally failure. More down moves will be seen tomorrow. Cofirm selling between 4898-4960 and it is immediate resistance now. Until Nifty will not sustain above 4960 till then any upmove will not be considered.