Rally triggering by Strong Global Markets

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(20-07-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(19-Jul-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Rally(Sub-Wave-1) begun on 20-06-2011 from 5195
2- Correction of this rally started on 08-07-2011 from 5740 after good selling between 5700-5740 and Sub-Wave-2 started.
3- Nifty is trading between 5497-5653 for the last 6 sessions with intraday consolidation at lower levels between 5505-5577 and selling between 5600-5650.
4- Sustaining above 5653 will be confirmation of correction(Sub-Wave-2) completion at 5497 and beginning of Sub-Wave-3

Conclusions

Good consolidations at lower levels and strong global cues today mean that Nifty will trade at or above last 6 sessions range(5497-5653). As global cues finally turned strong therefore expected that Nifty will consolidate near or above 5653 today and will test next resistance range 5700-5740 in the coming sessions.

As sustaining above 5653 will be confirmation of correction(Sub-Wave-2) completion at 5497 and beginning of Sub-Wave-3 therefore rally above 5740 will also be expected after fresh consolidations between 5700-5740.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 19-Jul-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 19-Jul-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 19-Jul-2011 1922.8 1629.51 293.29

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 19-Jul-2011 802.67 1029.59 -226.92

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 20-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(19-Jul-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Buying between-5558-5577
2- Last 2 hours mixed Patterns between-5615-5627.

Conclusions

Rally after lower levels intraday consolidation and today up moves are the result of strong global cues also therefore crossing and sustaining above 5640 will be confirmation of next rally for testing of resistance range between 5700-5740.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(01-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- White Candle.
2- Upmoves after lower levels consolidations.
3- Strong global cues led rally.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.91
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Jul-2011): 20.57

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1656
BSE DECLINES : 1226
NSE ADVANCES :  883
NSE DECLINES :  530

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- -397700(-9.21%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +935200(+8.75%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- -669150(-8.44%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +1110750(+16.64%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jul)- +84050(+0.91%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jul)- +712150(+24.01%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,613.55(+46.50 Points & +0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,653.87(+146.83 Points & +0.79% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,208.20(+15.60 Points & +0.19%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,462.92(+68.97 Points & +0.82%)

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11566
R2 11472
R1 11408
Avg  11314
S1 11250
S2 11156
S3 11092

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11503     Trgt 2
H5 11467     Trgt 1
H4 11430     Long breakout
H3 11387     Go Short
H2 11372
H1 11358
L1 11329
L2 11315
L3 11300     Long
L4 11257     Short Breakout
L5 11220     Trgt 1
L6 11184     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5771
R2 5716
R1 5670
Avg  5615
S1 5569
S2 5514
S3 5468

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5726     Trgt 2
H5 5702     Trgt 1
H4 5679     Long breakout
H3 5651     Go Short
H2 5642
H1 5633
L1 5614
L2 5605
L3 5596     Long
L4 5568     Short Breakout
L5 5545     Trgt 1
L6 5521     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 20-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5711
R2 5669
R1 5641
Avg  5599
S1 5571
S2 5529
S3 5501

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5683     Trgt 2
H5 5667     Trgt 1
H4 5651     Long breakout
H3 5632     Go Short
H2 5625
H1 5619
L1 5606
L2 5600
L3 5593     Long
L4 5574     Short Breakout
L5 5558     Trgt 1
L6 5542     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(19-07-2011)

Indian markets were subdued since opening today and started to move after strong opening of European markets and strong US Futures trading.(Dow futures is +90 at this moment). Volatile moves are being seen due to fast changing global news flow and sentiments. Nifty crossed last 3 days range of 5595. Lower levels buying seen between 5558-5577 and mised patterns between 5605-5620 in last 2 hours of trading between resistance range of 5605-5740.

Strong up moves with lower levels intraday consolidation seen today.As these moves are the result of global cues also therefore crossing and sustaining above 5640 will be confirmation of next rally for testing of resistance range between 5700-5740.

Mid-session Outlook-3(19-07-2011)

Dow's futures is trading 63 points up and European markets are strong today therefore sharp break out and strong global markets led rally is being seen in Indian markets. 5595 broken out and sustaining above will be correction completion confirmation for next rally toward 5700.

Mid-session Outlook-2(19-07-2011)

Only 5573 was given was given for watching and Nifty is dancing around it since opening today. Last 3 days range is 5555-5595 and both selling and buying seen within this range. Today buying seen at lower levels also and follow up buying within 5573-5595 will mean break out of 5595.

Voltality betwen 5555-5595 in last 3 sessions and its break out will be next strong move confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook(19-07-2011)

Only 5573 was given in Post-open Outlook today but Nifty is not ready to leave it and again hovering around after one hour moves above it. Selling indications at higher levels today and sustaining below it will mean down moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(19-07-2011)

Sentiment improved because Dow's futures is trading 38 points up and Asian markets also recovered from levels today morning therefore Nifty is trading yesterday selling range of 5573-5595. Any upmove confirmation will be sustaining above 5595 and that will be possible after complete consolidations. Fristly sustaining between 5573-5595 will be watched,as selling between this range therefore sustaining below it today will be down moves strong indication.

Nifty is hovering around 5573 today and sustaining beyond will be watched first for next moves confirmations.

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(19-07-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart(18-Jul-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Resistance at falling trend line
2- Lower top formation(Bearish pattern)
3- Support(5343)
4- Support(5178)

Conclusions

Nifty faced resistance and after that lower top formation(Bearish pattern) seen in last 3 seesions,as these two bearish confirmation on EOD chart therefore it is coorection confirmation and next supports are as follows:-

1- 5500-5550(Good consolidation)
2- 5320-5343(Gap)
3- 5250-5320(Good Consolidation)

Strong rally was seen in June 2011 between 5195-5740. Fibonacci retracement levels of this rally are as follows;-

13.0%-5669
23.6%-5611
27.0%-5592
38.2%-5531
50.0%-5467
61.8%-5403
70.7%-5354
76.4%-5323
78.6%-5311
88.6%-5257

Resistances

1- 5573-5595
2- 5605-5740
3- 5710-5740

Global markets are melting and bearish formations got confirmations after higher levels selling yesterday therefore more down moves possibility can not be ruled out. Indian markets are trapped between strong supports and resistances and today fresh selling will mean deeper correction and confirmation will be slipping below 5500.

Nifty will first trade between 5500-5573,Red closing and weaker market expected today.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 19-07-2011

Nifty-Intra Day Chart(18-Jul-2011):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts:-

1- Selling between 5573-5595
2- Mixed Patterns between 5561-5567


Conclusions

Nifty traded last 2 days between 5561-5595 with intraday selling at higher levels between 5573-5595 and lower levels buying between 5566-5580 last Friday. Mixed patterns between 5561-5567 today. Higher levels selling today and tanking all the global markets today therefore possibility of Indian markets slipping turned higher now and expected that last 2 days range(5561-5595) will be broken down tomorrow.

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(18-Jul-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red closing.
2- Higher levels selling.
3- Most Indices closed in Red.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 20.40
Nifty P/E Ratio(18-Jul-2011): 0.88

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1565
BSE DECLINES : 1326
NSE ADVANCES : 745
NSE DECLINES : 663

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5500 CE(Jul)- +4350(+0.10%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Jul)- +503100(+4.94%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(Jul)- +134500(+1.73%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(Jul)- +281100(+4.40%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,567.05(- 14.05 Points & -0.25%)
Sensex- closed at 18,507.04(-54.88 Points & -0.30% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,197.30(+22.10 Points & +0.27%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,393.95(+ 30.73 Points & +0.37%)

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 11403
R2 11353
R1 11301
PIVOT 11251
S1 11199
S2 11149
S3 11097

Bank Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11351     Trgt 2
H5 11328     Trgt 1
H4 11305     Long breakout
H3 11277     Go Short
H2 11267
H1 11258
L1 11239
L2 11230
L3 11220     Long
L4 11192     Short Breakout
L5 11192     Trgt 1
L6 11146     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Levels

R3 5649
R2 5629
R1 5600
PIVOT 5580
S1 5551
S2 5531
S3 5502

Nifty(Jul Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5621     Trgt 2
H5 5610     Trgt 1
H4 5598     Long breakout
H3 5585     Go Short
H2 5580
H1 5576
L1 5567
L2 5563
L3 5558     Long
L4 5545     Short Breakout
L5 5533     Trgt 1
L6 5522     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 19-07-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5638
R2 5617
R1 5592
PIVOT 5571
S1 5546
S2 5525
S3 5500

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5613     Trgt 2
H5 5602     Trgt 1
H4 5592     Long breakout
H3 5579     Go Short
H2 5575
H1 5571
L1 5562
L2 5558
L3 5554     Long
L4 5541     Short Breakout
L5 5531     Trgt 1
L6 5520     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(18-07-2011)

Nifty traded most of the time between 5561-5595 with higher levels selling indications and lower levels buying signals. In fact market is not prepared for any side move therefore did not tanked despite deep Red European markets opening.

Global sentiment is bearish therefore slipping possibility can not be ruled out after higher levels selling indications today. and next strong moves confirmation will be sustaining beyond last 2 sessions trading range(5561-5595).

Although last 2 sessions Red closing but view is not bearish because lower levels consolidation signals in last 2 sessions.

Mid-session Outlook(18-07-2011)

Trading range of 5566-5595 was given in all the Pre-open and Post-open Outlooks today and Nifty is trading within this range for the last 3 hours.

Intraday patterns are mixed today therefore repeating same which has already told in all 3 previous looks;-

Watch sustaining beyond 5566-5595 for next moves confirmations.