Tomorrow(17-05-2011) Market Outlook & Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis and Research For 17-05-2011

Range bound quiet market between 5490-5530 today and no material chage in EOD charts and indicators positions therefore no need to update today and just click following link for detailed analysis of EOD Charts:-

Weekly Outlook(16-05-2011 to 20-05-2011)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(16-05-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- Range bound quiet market between 5490-5530
2- Selling indications between 5515-5530
3- Buying indications between 5490-5508

Conclusions

Market was whole day quiet and range bound after gap down opening. Market slipped but without force and above mentioned minor selling and buying indications only. Patterns are mixed and not suggesting clear indications today.

Tomorrow(17-05-2011) Outlook

As higher levels selling indicatons and lower levels buying indications therefore expected that market will take fresh positions within today range first and then today range break out will give direction to Indian markets in the coming sessions.

Last 8 days range(5444-5605) maintained today and not broken out and expected that it will be decided tomorrow that 5444 is surviving or not. Tomorrow intraday selling will mean testing of 5444 and slipping below possibility also. Follow up buying and sustaining above 5530 will mean testing possibility of next resistance range(5590-5605)

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(16-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows:-

1- Red closing
2- Mixed patterns between 5490-5530
3- Last 8 days range(5444-5605) maintained and not broken out

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(16-05-2011): 20.39

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1031
BSE DECLINES : 1758
NSE ADVANCES :  412
NSE DECLINES : 1001

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5400 CE(26-05-2011)- +730150(+53.52%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(26-05-2011)- +704950(+9.31%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(26-05-2011)- +2908750(+72.62%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(26-05-2011)- +182100(+2.82%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(26-05-2011)- +1661450(+29.42%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(26-05-2011)- -905350(-19.49%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,499.00(-45.75 Points & -0.83%)
Sensex- closed at 18,345.03(-186.25 Points & -1.01% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,977.70(-57.20 Points & -0.71%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,306.55(-61.67 Points & -0.74%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5585
R2 5563
R1 5531
Avg 5509
S1 5477
S2 5455
S3 5423

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5553     Trgt 2
H5 5540     Trgt 1
H4 5528     Long breakout
H3 5513     Go Short
H2 5508
H1 5503
L1 5494
L2 5489
L3 5484    Long
L4 5469     Short Breakout
L5 5457     Trgt 1
L6 5444     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5584
R2 5560
R1 5524
Avg 5500
S1 5464
S2 5440
S3 5404

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5548     Trgt 2
H5 5534    Trgt 1
H4 5521    Long breakout
H3 5504     Go Short
H2 5499
H1 5493
L1 5482
L2 5477
L3 5471     Long
L4 5455     Short Breakout
L5 5441     Trgt 1
L6 5427     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 17-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11092
R2 11035
R1 10953
Avg 10896
S1 10814
S2 10757
S3 10675

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11010     Trgt 2
H5 10978     Trgt 1
H4 10947     Long breakout
H3 10909     Go Short
H2 10896
H1 10883
L1 10858
L2 10845
L3 10832     Long
L4 10794     Short Breakout
L5 10763     Trgt 1
L6 10731     Trgt 2

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 16-May-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 16-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 16-May-2011 1854.03 1806.96 47.07

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 16-May-2011 752.71 749.3 3.41

Pre-closing Outlook(16-05-2011)

Nifty traded first 4 hours between 5510-5550 and last 2 hours below 5510. Although markets slipeed from day's highs and trading near today lows but intraday patterns are mixed today and showing consolidations indications also despite Red closing. It will be better to wait for tomorrow market and sustaining beyond 5500 for next moves first indication.

Mid-session Outlook(16-05-2011)

Nifty again slipped below 5510 and if sustains then will be down moves confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(16-05-2011)

Following 2 proections were given in Pre-open Outlook for today market,as applicable after 4 hours trading also therefore repeating:-

1- "first trading range will be 5510-5550 and expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves within this range"

2- "sustaining beyond this range will be first indication of next Indian markets direction"

Although Nifty slipped but did not sustained and immediately backed into mentioned trading range. Intraday support indications at lower levels and more preparation is required for up moves. Sustaining above 5540 will be next upmoves confirmation.

Post-open Outlook(16-05-2011)

Following lines was told today in Pre-open Outlook

"negative opening and first trading range will be 5510-5550 and expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves within this range and sustaining beyond this range will be first indication of next Indian markets direction"

Today first hour trading range is 5509.60-5541.80 and sustaining beyond this range will be result of preperation for next moves within this range. Resistances above this range and supports below this range as well. Let market prepare within this range and then confirmation will be from break out and sustaining beyond today 1st hour mentioned range.

Pre-open Outlook(16-05-2011)

Global cues are weak and sentiment is depressed therefore negative opening and first trading range will be 5510-5550 and expected that Nifty will prepare for next moves within this range and sustaining beyond this range will be first indication  of next Indian markets direction.

Weekly Outlook(16-05-2011 to 20-05-2011)

6 Months correction and Pennant pattern Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

All trends are down and Nifty is trading below 200 Day EMA for the last 8 sessions between 5444-5605. As nifty sustained below 200 Day EMA therefore Long term trend also turned down but it has to be decided that Indian markets have moved into bearish phase or not and following points have to be considered also for the confirmation of bearish phase:-

1- Wave-4 has completed'ABC' correction.
2- Continuation Pattern Pennant Formations in last 6 months. As Pennant is continuation pattern and on going trend is upward therefore it should remain continued according to the impact of continuation pattern formations.
3- Wave-5 is on and Rising Trend Line of Pennant is Wave-5 Trend line.
4- Nifty is trading exactly at Rising Trend Line of Pennant/Wave-5 Trend line for the last 8 sessions between 5442-5605.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(13-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty traded and covered almost whole of the last 8 sessions trading range and traded between 5472-5605 on 13-05-2011,Main features of are as follows:-

1- Support exists between 5450-5475 exactly below the trading range of 13-05-2011
2- Intraday Support between 5475-5495 on 13-05-2011
3- Intraday Support between 5542-5562 on 13-05-2011
4- Intraday Resistance between 5590-5605 on 13-05-2011
5- Intraday Support between 5530-5545 on 13-05-2011

Next Trend Deciding 8 Sessions Range(04-05-2011-13-05-2011) Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Nifty traded between 5444-5605 in last 8 sessions,this range break out and sustaining beyond will decide that Indian markets have moved into Bearish phase or Bullish markets hopes are alive. Sustining below 5444 will be confirmation of Bear phase and deeper lower levels possibility. Sustaining above 5605 will mean revival of Bullish markets hopes,its confirmation points will be discussed after sustaining above 5605.

As Petroleum rates hike and weak US markets last Friday therefore weak weekly opening and firstly trading between 5444-5605 expected and above mentioned supports may be tested but final weekly view should be formed from sustaining beyond 5444-5605. Weak sentiment and negative zone trading expected in the begining of week but supports also at lower levels therefore fresh selling patterns are must for any move below 5444. As 5th wave trend line and Rising Trend Line of Pennant are still intact therefore up moves hopes are alive and next views will be formed from coming couple of sessions intraday charts patterns and 8 days range break out.

Until Nifty is Range bound till then Stop Loss should remain beyond range with targets within range and directional trades should be initiated after range break out confirmations.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 13-May-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 13-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 13-May-2011 2315.61 2476.96 -161.35

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 13-May-2011 870.44 881.97 -11.53

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5741
R2 5673
R1 5608
Avg 5540
S1 5475
S2 5407
S3 5342

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5678     Trgt 2
H5 5647     Trgt 1
H4 5617     Long breakout
H3 5580     Go Short
H2 5568
H1 5556
L1 5531
L2 5519
L3 5507     Long
L4 5470     Short Breakout
L5 5440     Trgt 1
L6 5409     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5788
R2 5705
R1 5631
Avg 5548
S1 5474
S2 5391
S3 5317

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5717     Trgt 2
H5 5681     Trgt 1
H4 5644     Long breakout
H3 5601     Go Short
H2 5586
H1 5572
L1 5543
L2 5529
L3 5514     Long
L4 5471     Short Breakout
L5 5434     Trgt 1
L6 5398     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 16-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11610
R2 11406
R1 11219
Avg 11015
S1 10828
S2 10624
S3 10437

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11430     Trgt 2
H5 11339     Trgt 1
H4 11247     Long breakout
H3 11139     Go Short
H2 11103
H1 11067
L1 10996
L2 10960
L3 10924     Long
L4 10816     Short Breakout
L5 10725     Trgt 1
L6 10633     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(16-05 to 20-05-2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 5741
R2 5673
R1 5608
Avg 5540
S1 5475
S2 5407
S3 5342

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 5678     Trgt 2
H5 5647     Trgt 1
H4 5617     Long breakout
H3 5580     Go Short
H2 5568
H1 5556
L1 5531
L2 5519
L3 5507     Long
L4 5470     Short Breakout
L5 5440     Trgt 1
L6 5409     Trgt 2

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Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(12-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows:-

1- Weaker glbal cues led weak markets.
2- All the main Indices closed 1% down
3- Long Black Candle
4- Nifty closed below psychological level of 5500
5- Good IIP days but  market slipped after its announcement.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.85
Nifty P/E Ratio(12-05-2011): 20.40

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES :  909
BSE DECLINES : 1893
NSE ADVANCES :  394
NSE DECLINES : 1016

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5400 CE(26-05-2011)- +160750(+9.71%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(26-05-2011)- +889750(+13.63%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(26-05-2011)- +1932550(+48.46%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(26-05-2011)- +83450(+1.40%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(26-05-20111)- 1033950(+16.24%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(26-05-2011)- -509250(-12.75%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,486.15(-78.90 Points & -1.42%)
Sensex- closed at 18,335.79(-249.17 Points & -1.34% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,941.05(-76.35 Points & -0.95%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,335.43(-89.48 Points & -1.06%)