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Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11308
R2 11199
R1 11119
Avg 11010
S1 10930
S2 10821
S3 10741

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11230     Trgt 2
H5 11186     Trgt 1
H4 11142     Long breakout
H3 11090     Go Short
H2 11073
H1 11056
L1 11021
L2 11004
L3 10987     Long
L4 10935     Short Breakout
L5 10891     Trgt 1
L6 10847     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(11-05-2011)


Intraday consolidation between 5525-5550 today and expected that nifty will consolidate betwen 5550-5590 tomorrow and moves above 5590 will be seen in the coming sessions.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 11-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5524-TGT-5634-CMP-5560

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5524-TGT-5634-S.P.FOR CALL-5500,5600(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5560

Sandwich Nifty Today












Mid-session Outlook-2(11-05-2011)

Upper Slice- (5560-5590 yesterday Resistance)
Lower Slice- (5515-5532 yesterday Support)
Fried Tomato & Potato between- (5525-5565 Today Predicted Trading Range in Mid-Night today)
Fried Tomato & Potato between- (5525-5561.90 Today Trading Range at 12:15 PM today)

Only breakfast(intraday trading/Options selling) should be enjoyed from Sandwich Nifty and Wait for Lunch/Dinner(Positional trading/Options buying) because it is being cooked between in 5 Star Hotels(5450-5590).

Following lines were told for today markets

in  Market Outlook(11-05-2011)

Supports at lower levels and resistances at higher levels therefore market will not move any side and first trade between 5525-5565 tomorrow,much movements not expected and also closing expected within this range. Firstly market will prepare then next moves will be decided according to intraday charts formation in the coming sessions.

Minor support at lower levels and minor resistance also seen at higher levels today.Next moves confirmation levels are as follows;-

1- 5525-5565
2- 5500-5590
3- 5450-5590

Mid-session Outlook(11-05-2011)

Following lines were told in mid-night yesterday in Market Outlook(11-05-2011)

Supports at lower levels and resistances at higher levels therefore market will not move any side and first trade between 5525-5565 tomorrow.

"Trading range today at 11:05AM is:- 5525-5556.85"

As already told many times that Indian markets are range bound and preparing for next big moves and until this process will not complete till then Nifty will trade between 5450-5590 and this range break out will be next big moves confirmations.

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels today but patterns are suggesting consolidations today. As per my view more preparation is required for any side break out because multiple resistances at higher levels and multiple supports at lower levels as well.

Let market prepare then break out and trending markets will be seen. 

Market Outlook(11-05-2011)

Detailed Technical Analysis have already been posted in following topics in last 4 days and no change in positions today therefore not being repeated. As last 4 days postd analysis will have impact on today trading also therefore useful links are as follows;-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)

As intraday chart analysis is important for tomorrow and coming sessions trading therefore today Intraday chart and 5 days intraday charts analysis are as follows:-


Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 days Intra Day Charts:-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Nifty-Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Chart(10-05-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Conclusions from today intraday charts analysis

Nifty traded most time between 5500-5560 in last 4 days and Nifty firstly traded between this range today,immediately broken out and crossed 5560. Nifty traded 4 hours between 5560-5590 but break out was lacking force therefore rally was doubtful and I told 2 times in 2 outlooks and clearly told for confirmation requirements through sustaining above 5592.

As suspected same happened and market slipped sharply after intraday selling betwen 5562-5590. Minor intraday support also seen between 5515-5532 today

Conclusions from 5 days intraday charts analysis

Main features are as follows:-

1- Trading range 5450-5590
2- Most time trading range 5500-5560
3- Multipal Resistances
4- Multipal Supports
5- Rising Channel Formations

Conclusions (After Putting analysis together)

Main features are as follows:-

1- All trends are down
2- 5th wave is still on.
3- Continuation pattern Pennant is still existing and it means rally hopes are alive.
4- Indicators are suggesting short term up moves possibility.
5- Good selling at higher levels therefore market requires complete consolidations

Range bound trading between 5450-5590 in last 5 days and Nifty traded most time between 5500-5560. Multipal Resistances and multipal supports in last 5 days. Supports at lower levels and resistances at higher levels therefore market will not move any side and first trade between 5525-5565 tomorrow,much movements not expected and also closing expected within this range. Firstly market will prepare then next moves will be decided according to intraday charts formation in the coming sessions. next moves confirmation levels are as follows;-

1- 5500-5560
2- 5450-5590

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 10-May-2011


Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows:-

1- Almost all the Indices closed flat.
2- Selling at higher levels.
3- Minor intraday lower levels support
4- Range bound character maintained with closing within last 4 days range.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.89
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-05-2011):20.61

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1366
BSE DECLINES : 1438
NSE ADVANCES :  648
NSE DECLINES :  744

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- +627150(+18.75%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)- -299400(-5.20%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +1248300(+25.49%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +510750(+13.08%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,541.25(+/-9.85 Points & -0.18%)
Sensex- closed at 18,512.77(-16.19 Points & -0.09% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,958.20(+4.45 Points & +0.06%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,363.96(+21.16 Points & +0.25%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII10-May-20111451.061426.0425.02


DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII10-May-2011768.09637.23130.86

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5662
R2 5627
R1 5584
Avg 5549
S1 5506
S2 5471
S3 5428

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5619     Trgt 2
H5 5601     Trgt 1
H4 5583     Long breakout
H3 5562     Go Short
H2 5555
H1 5548
L1 5533
L2 5526
L3 5519     Long
L4 5498     Short Breakout
L5 5480     Trgt 1
L6 5462     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2011


Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5682
R2 5643
R1 5594
Avg 5555
S1 5506
S2 5467
S3 5418

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5633     Trgt 2
H5 5613     Trgt 1
H4 5593     Long breakout
H3 5569     Go Short
H2 5561
H1 5553
L1 5536
L2 5528
L3 5520     Long
L4 5496     Short Breakout
L5 5476     Trgt 1
L6 5456     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11274
R2 11196
R1 11108
Avg 11030
S1 10942
S2 10864
S3 10776

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11188    Trgt 2
H5 11150     Trgt 1
H4 11112     Long breakout
H3 11066    Go Short
H2 11051
H1 11036
L1 11005
L2 10990
L3 10975     Long
L4 10929     Short Breakout
L5 10891     Trgt 1
L6 10853     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(10-05-2011)

EGoM postponed tomorrow meeeting on Petroleum price hike

Although sharp down today and Nifty is trading near lower levels but intraday support developed at lower levels today also.

Next trading range will be between 5500-5590 and intraday charts of the coming 4/5 trading hours will give first indication of next moves beyond 5500-5590

Mid-session Outlook-3(10-05-2011)

I told for crossing 5570 and Nifty crossed also but when I saw that up moves are not convincing then at time when Nifty was trading near day's higher levels then I expressed my doubts on today up moves in following words in 2 outlooks:-

1- I told in Mid-session Outlook;- "up move is lacking required force therefore sustaining above today highest(5592) will be watched for next moves confirmations"

2- I told in Mid-session Outlook-2;- "5570 is crossed but without required force and negative news of petroleum rates hike news also today therefore Nifty crossing and sustaining above today high(5592) will be rally confirmations"

As up move wthout required force therefore selling confirmation and clear resistance(5565-5590) today and supports at lower levels near 5500 are not much strong. Follow up selling today or tomorrow and move below 5500 will mean sharp down.

Range bound market between 5500-5590 and follow up buying/selling in the coming 4/5 trading hours will decide surviving of support at 5500 or not.

Mid-session Outlook-2(10-05-2011)


Indian markets are sustaining near day's higher levels despite negative news of Petroleum rates hike news in Business news channels. 5570 is crossed but without required force and negative news of petroleum rates hike news also today therefore Nifty crossing and sustaining above today high(5592) will be rally confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(10-05-2011)

5570 crossed and Nifty is trading near day's higher levels but up move is lacking required force therefore sustaining above today highest(5592) will be watched for next moves confirmations.

Post-open Outlook(10-05-2011)

Following conclusive line was clearly told in Tomorrow Outlook(10-05-2011) at 11:41 PM yesterday:-

expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 in the coming couple of sessions

Following conclusive line was again clearly told in Pre-open Outlook(10-05-2011) at 08:51:00 AM today:-

expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 and short term up moves will start in the coming couple of sessions.

Today high at this moment is 5592 and short term up move is on.

Pre-open Outlook(10-05-2011)

Asian markets are quiet therefore sentiment is calm today morning. Flat opening and firstly trading betwen 5500-5570 will be seen. Fresh consolidation expected between mentioned range and also expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 and short term up moves will start in the coming couple of sessions.

For precaution and trend confirmation 5500-5570 break out should be watched.

Detailed analysis have been posted in following topics and not being repeated;-

Tomorrow Outlook(10-05-2011)

Detailed analysis have been posted in following topics and not being repeated;-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)
2- Indian Stock Markets Report(09-05-2011)
3- Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2011

4 Days range bound trading(5500-5570) means preperation for big moves. Clear supports at lower levels today but higher levels mixed intraday patterns also between 5545-5570 therefore Nifty will trade near about this range first.

Fresh consolidation expected near about 5560 tomorrow and expected that Nifty will finally move above 5570 in the coming couple of sessions short term up moves will also commence in the coming couple of sessions.

For precaution and trend confirmation 5500-5570 break out should be watched first.

Technical Analysis and Research For 10-05-2011


Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the averages(8,21,55,200 Day EMA) and showing oversold market. Nifty is below 200 Day EMA for the last 4 sessions therefore indicating weakness.

2-Bollinger Band- Nifty is trading at Lower Band for the last 4 sessions and showing oversold markets therefore indicaing an upmove mininmun upto middle line of Band which is at 5681.

3-MACD- MACD Line is below Average Line and both lines are near equalibrium line. Gap between both lines increased. As clear divergence between both lines therefore an upmove is expected to converge both lines.

4-ROC & RSI- Started to move up from oversold zone therefore indicating small upmove possibility

5-Slow Stochastic & William %R- Both very short term indicators have started to move up from oversold zone and indicating very short term up move.

Conclusions (After Putting All indicators Together)

All the indicators are telling bounce back and minimum very short term upmoves possibility.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(09-05-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Main Features

1- Intraday support between 5507-5530.
2- Mixed Patterns between 5545-5570

Conclusions

Nifty traded most of the time between 5500-5560 in last 4 sessions and Nifty traded between 5507-5570 today with lower levels buying and higher levels mixed patterns. Now 5500-5570 is next moves confirmation range.

Conclusions (After Putting Daily Indicators and Intraday charts analysis together)

Next trading range is 5500-5570 and indicators are suggesting bounce back and minimum very short term upmoves possibility. Confirm consolidation between 5507-5530 today but mixed patterns patterns between 5545-5570 also.

Last 4 sessions trading range is 5500-5570 and Indian markets require more preparation for next move decisive break out within this range. Break out and sustaining beyond mentioned range will give following confirmations:-

1- Move below 5500 will be first indication and sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible.


2- Move above 5570/5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA(5628),it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 09-May-2011