Post-open Outlook-2(09-05-2011)

Indian markets are slipping sharply from higher levels immediately and trading in Red since opening today but view is not Bearish and will be bearish after confirmations and sustaining below 5500. Steep fall today low is at 5502. View will be bearish below 5500 and in that situation next target will be 5178.

Post-open Outlook(09-05-2011)

Indian markets underperformed global markets after positive closing today. Following lines were told in all the outlooks for today trading:-

"3 sessions most time trading range is 5500-5560 and intraday patterns within this range are mixed, Nifty will first trade in next week within or little above/below mentioned range and prepare for next moves"

As told above again and again and same is being seen immediately after opening today and Nifty is trading between 5500-5560. Let market prepare for next moves and confirmarion will be break out and sustaining beyond 5500-5560. Conclusions from Micro Analysis of today Intra Day Charts will be posted after next moves confirmations.

Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels immediately after opening and trading in Red since opening today but view is not Bearish.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-05-2011

Technicals and conclusions for coming week markets have already been explained in details in following 4 topics therefore not being repeated:-

1- Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)
2- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts
3- Weekly Chart Analysis
4- Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

As last 3 sessions narrow range market(5500-5560) therefore its break out and sustaining beyond will certainly be crucial development and 5%  decisive moves will be expected in the direction of break out side.

Global markets and US Futures are in Green and sentiment is  positive today morning therefore expected that Nifty will first trade between 5560-5600. Nifty sustaining above 5560 today will be up side break out strong indication and rally confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA.

Positive closing expected today after Green opening and most of the time positive zone trading.

Weekly Outlook(09-05-2011 to 13-05-2011)

Technicals of Indian markets have already been posted in following 3 topics therefore just click following topics and understand Indian markets:-

1- Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts
2- Weekly Chart Analysis
3- Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All Bullish barriers have been broken down in last 7 sessions sharp down moves. All trends are down and 200 Day EMA has been broken down as well. 5th impulsive wave is on within continuation Pennant Pattern formations. Nifty is hovering around at lower levels existing Rising trend line of Pennant for the last 3 sessions with low at 5444 and high at 5579. Until complete consolidation will not happen till then market will not reverse. Firstly complete consolidations and after that sustaining above minimum one resistance is must for an up move confirmations. Nifty traded most of the time with mixed trading patterns between 5500-5560 in last 3 sessions,break out and sustaining beyond this range will give following confirmations:-

1- Nove below 5500 will be first indication and sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible.


2- Move above 5560/5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA(5629),it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

It is very much clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Days Intra Day Charts(04-05-2011 to 06-05-2011) that 3 sessions most time trading range is 5500-5560 and intraday patterns within this range are mixed, Nifty will first trade in next week within or little above/below mentioned range and prepare for next moves. Break out implications of mentioned range have already been discussed above.

Finally break out,sustaining above 5560 and Green weekly closing expected in the coming week but precautionally sustaining beyond 5500-5560 will be watched for safety.

Trend Decider Pennant Pattern

Pennant Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Pennant is continuation Pattern. It means that on going trend will remain continued after its break out. 5th impulsive wave is on therefore its upward break out should be expected but all trends are down and Indian markets have moved below 200 Day EMA. Nifty is hovering around at lower levels existing Rising trend line of Pennant for the last 3 sessions with low at 5444 and high at 5579.

Conclusions

Sustaing below 5444 will be bear market confirmation and in that situation 5178 will be possible. Move above 5579 will be up trend indication and confirmation will be sustaining above 200 Day EMA,it will mean range bound Indian markets between 5444-5944

Weekly Chart Analysis

Waves structure and Positive MACD chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Waves structure

Waves structure is showing that 5th impulsive wave is on after 4th wave correction completion.

Weekly MACD

Both lines of MACD are near equalibrium line. MACD line is merginally above Average line and equalibrium line.

Weekly Chart from 03-09-2010 to 06-05-2011

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features

1- 5 corrective Waves of Wave-4 has been completed
2- Corrective 4th wave begun on 05-11-2010 from 6338
3- Corrective 4th wave finished on 11-02-2011 at 5178
4- Continuation Pattern Pennant broken down but weekly closing within Pattern

Conclusions

Wave-4 completed its correction in 5 sub-waves and Wave-5 is on. All trends are down and only hope for survival of Bull market is Continuation Pattern Pennant formations. Nifty moved below 5th wave in previous week but closed above it. Wave 5 is Rising trend line of Pennant and Nifty sustaining above it will mean survival of Pennant and with this hope of up trend as well.

As Weekly closing is above Wave-5(Rising trens line of Pennant) therefore Bull market hopes are still existing and sustaining beyond as well as next weekly closing above/below mentioned line will be next moves confirmations.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Charts

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 3 Days Intra Day Charts(04-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features

1- Mixed Patterns in last 3 days between 5500-5560

a- 04-05-2011-
1- Intraday Resistance 5532-5546
2- Intraday support 5510-5530

b- 05-05-2011-
1- Genuine selling between 5525-5560
2- Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(06-05-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

conclusions from Intra Day Chart(06-05-2011)

Patterns are mixed but conclusions are toward consolidations after using discretion

conclusions from 3 Days Intra Day Charts Analysis

All Bullish barriers have been broken down in last 7 sessions Bearish storm and until complete consolidation will not happen till then market will not reverse. Sustaining above minimum one resistance is must for an up move confirmations. Nifty traded most of the time with mixed trading patterns between 5500-5560 in last 3 days. Nifty traded between 5500-5560 with trading patterns but conclusion is favouring consolidations.

Last 3 days range is 5500-5560 and its break out will mean:-

1- Nifty crossed 5560 but slipped and closed below it within mentioned range. Nifty crossing and sustaining above 5560  will mean 3 days base formation after 9 days sharp fall but sustaining above 5585 and 200 Day EMA is must for trend reversal and Bull rally.

2- Bear phase is on and fresh seeling in the begining of coming week will lead below 5500 for deep bearish market.

As 3 days narrow range moves therefore will better and safer to watch 5500-5560 and get confirmations from break out in first couple of sessions in next week.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 06-May-2011

Indian Stock Markets Report(06-05-2011)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Long White Candle
2- Strong closing after strong opening
3- All the Indices closed in Green.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.78
Nifty P/E Ratio(05-05-2011):20.32

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES : 1613
BSE DECLINES : 1198
NSE ADVANCES :  893
NSE DECLINES :  502

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5400 CE(28APR2011)- +13150(+0.78%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(28APR2011)- +618700(+11.98%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(28APR2011)- -517650(-11.86%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(28APR2011)-  +768000(+18.54%)

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)-  -259850(-4.68%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)-  -170800(-4.20%)

Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,551.45(+91.60 Points & +1.68%)
Sensex- closed at 18,518.81(+308.23 Points & +1.69% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 7,965.40(+131.95 Points & +1.68%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,342.58(+55.51 Points & +0.67%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 06-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 06-May-2011 2579.11 3234.45 -655.34

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 06-May-2011 2065.76 1047.72 1018.04

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5678
R2 5621
R1 5586
Avg 5529
S1 5494
S2 5437
S3 5402

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5644     Trgt 2
H5 5622     Trgt 1
H4 5601     Long breakout
H3 5576    Go Short
H2 5567
H1 5559
L1 5542
L2 5534
L3 5525     Long
L4 5500     Short Breakout
L5 5479     Trgt 1
L6 5457     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5702
R2 5638
R1 5596
Avg 5532
S1 5490
S2 5426
S3 5384

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5662     Trgt 2
H5 5638     Trgt 1
H4 5613     Long breakout
H3 5584     Go Short
H2 5574
H1 5564
L1 5545
L2 5535
L3 5525     Long
L4 5496     Short Breakout
L5 5472     Trgt 1
L6 5447     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 09-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 12588
R2 12157
R1 11650
Avg 11219
S1 10712
S2 10281
S3 9774

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12111     Trgt 2
H5 11885     Trgt 1
H4 11658     Long breakout
H3 11400     Go Short
H2 11314
H1 11228
L1 11057
L2 10971
L3 10885     Long
L4 10627     Short Breakout
L5 10400     Trgt 1
L6 10174     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(09-05 to 13-05-2011)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6067
R2 5921
R1 5736
Avg 5590
S1 5405
S2 5259
S3 5074

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy

H6 5888     Trgt 2
H5 5810     Trgt 1
H4 5733     Long breakout
H3 5642     Go Short
H2 5611
H1 5581
L1 5520
L2 5490
L3 5459    Long
L4 5368     Short Breakout
L5 5291     Trgt 1
L6 5213     Trgt 2

Pre-closing Outlook(06-05-2011)

Nifty crossed 1st resistance after strong opening today and it is yesterday bottoming out confirmation. Final conclusion from today intraday patterns is consolidations. If Nifty sustains above 5560 and cross 5585 in next week then will be Bull market survival.

Mid-session Outlook-3(06-05-2011)

5520 crossed and Nifty is trading between next 1st resistance 5520-2260. Up moves are with good force today and crossing of 5560 will be Pull back rally confirmation.

Mid-session Outlook-2(06-05-2011)

3 hours selling between 5500-5520 and Nifty slipped to 5472 and then recovered fast also.As sentiment is extremely depressed therefore people  can  not hold positions and panic selling starts. Today fast recovery is certainly a positive move and 5475-5485 has developed minor support also.

First of all watch 5500-5520 and its break out will be first indicaton. 5475-5560 crossing will be next sustained move confirmation. For any up move Nifty require complete consolidation between 5525-5560 and it will take its own time. 5475-5485 is minor support and will be easily cleared if fresh selling develops today.

Mid-session Outlook(06-05-2011)

As intraday charts told therefore Following line was told in Technical Analysis and Research For 06-05-2011

Genuine selling between 5525-5560

Clearly following line was told and cautioned in Post-open Outlook(06-05-2011)

confirmation will be minimum crossing next resistance range(5525-5560).

Intraday charts showed 3 hours selling between 5500-5520 today and this sellling is exactly below yesterday genuine selling range therefore yesterday resistance strengthened and more down moves are expected.

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Post-open Outlook(06-05-2011)

Indian markets closed near the lows of the day yesterday but intraday charts did not suggested pure selling but buying signals were also seen therefore following lines were told in all the outlooks posted for today:-

1- Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490
2- Nifty will first trade within or near about 5455-5490 for next moves preparations.

All the Global markets are in Red and sentiment was deep depressed but Indian markets opening is certainly strong. If Nifty sustains at higher levels and close above 5500 today then it will be first indication of yesterday bottom formation yesterday and confirmation will be minimum crossing next resistance range(5525-5560).

Today 1% up is Pull Back Rally and strong move also. Next 2/3 hours intraday charts formations and sustaining beyond 5500 will give next moves first indication.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(06-05-2011)

All trends are down and market is bearish. Market require complete consolidation for a Bullish rally and until that will not happen till then this possibility will not be considered. Short term oscillators are oversold therefore only pull back rally will be expected at this moment and it may begin after couple of hours to couple of sessions consolidation.

Huge voltality is Bear market character and will be seen also. Previous Wave(5177-5944) has been retraced 61.8%(5469) and Nifty closed below it ar 5459 yesterday,as mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 yesterday therefore if fresh consolidation develop near about then a very shot term up move will be seen. Next retracement levels are as follows:-

1- 70.7%- 5401
2- 76.4%- 5358
3- 78.6%- 5341
4- 88.6%- 5264

Next 3 supports are as follows:-

1- 5348
2- 5233
3- 5178

At present 1st Resistance range is 5525-5560 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then bullish rally begining will not be considered. Mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 yesterday therefore Nifty will first trade within or near about this range for next moves preparations. Intraday consolidation today will mean only pull back rally possibility maximum upto 5525. Market is in Bear phase therefore fresh selling today will mean more sharp down moves toward above mentioned retracement levels and supports.

As mixed Patterns between 5455-5490 in last 3 hours yesterday therefore next immediate market and today closing will be decided according to first 2/3 hours trading.