NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 03-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-CMP-5567

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5544-TGT-5644-S.P.FOR CALL-5500,5600(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5567

Mid-session Outlook-2(03-05-2011)

Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA(5704) forcefully broken down today and Nifty is hovering around 200 Days EMA(5633) and sustaining below it today will mean Long term trend turning down. As today intraday charts suggested  intra day selling indications therefore we sold our long positions at 5597(proofs are available in blog-Just Click).

Sustaining beyond 5633 will be Long term trend confirmations and slipping below it will mean Bearish market possibility. Next support is 5561 below 5633.

Mid-session Outlook(03-05-2011)

RBI Credit Policy triggered intermediate term down trend after huge intraday voltality today. Last 21 days range and 55 Days EMA broken down today. More down moves and 200 Days EMA testing possibility can not be ruled out.

Post-open Outlook(03-05-2011)

Global cues are weak and Nifty is trading below 5700 since opening today. Indian markets are technically poised for pull back rally but voltality is possible due to weaker global cues and RBI credit policy uncertainity. Decisive moves are expected after credit policy announcements and sustainability beyond 5700 will be confirmation.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(BOUGHT ON 02-05-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5697(WE MAY BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-MESSAGE

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011- MARKET WILL BE VOLATILE,HOLD AND WE MAY WAIT UPTO RBI CREDIT POLICY & COVERING MESSAGE WILL BE POSTED POSITIVELY

Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-05-2011)

Indian markets are technically poised for a pull back rally between 5700-5800 but global markets are slipping today therefore sustaining beyond 5700 will be watched after weak opening today and according to that next market view will be formed.  Sustaining beyond 5700 implications have already been discussed in Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook yesterday.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 5 Days Intra Day Chart

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main features are as follows

1- Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern in last 4 sessions
2- Last 4 sessions down moves are in falling Channel

Channel break out will give first indication of next strong move. As Water-Fall(Bullish) pattern formations in last 4 sessions therefore rally expected after upside break out.

Post-closing Report(02-05-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Black Candle
2- Most Indices closed in Red except IT,Reality,CG,Power and Health Care
3- Consolidation seen in last 3 hours at crucial support(5700)
4- Consolidation seen in 2/3 of 30 SENSEX Stocks

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 0.87
Nifty P/E Ratio(02-05-2011): 21.19

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1002
BSE DECLINES : 1861
NSE ADVANCES :  421
NSE DECLINES :  988

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5600 CE(28APR2011)- +152900(+25.40%)
Nifty- 5600 PE(28APR2011)- +417850(+8.82%)

Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +523150(+35.90%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +48150(+1.05%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +557350(+15.83%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +142150(+4.44%)


Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,701.30(-48.20 Points & -0.84%)
Sensex- closed at 18,998.02(-137.94 Points & -0.72% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,120.10(-80.85 Points & -99%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,615.19(-100.12 Points & -1.15%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Tomorrow(03-05-2011) Outlook

Last 10 days Intra Day Charts Micro Analysis is showing water-Fall(bullish) pattern and Micro Analysis of today Nifty Intra Day Chart is also suggesting last 3 hours intraday buying patterns between 5690-5710. 21 sessions trading range is 5688-5944 and consolidation signals emerged at lower levels of the range.

Technical positions are as follows:

1- 55 Day EMA is at 5704 today and sustaining it beyond will give intermediate term trend confirmation.
2- Nifty is at lower band of Bollinger Band and up moves within last 21 sessions range can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.
3- very short term indicators(Stochastic and William %R) are oversold and very short term  up moves can be expected at this moment if follow up buying develop tomorrow.

Survival of Intermediate term trend is at stake,tomorrow is its deciding day and that will be decided according to sustaining beyond 5700.  Follow up buying tomorrow will mean sharp surge because water-Fall(bullish) pattern in last week and follow up selling will mean sustaining below 5693 and deep correction confirmations.

As lower levels consolidations today therefore up moves expected after follow up buying development and sustaining above 5700.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 02-May-2011

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(02-05-2011):

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions are as follows

1- Last 3 hours consolidation between 5690-5710
2- Distribution between 5725-6740

As base formation and support between 5725-5740 and some selling at higher levels also today therefore firstly trading between 5690-5750 will be seen. Base formation at lower level today therefore firstly very short term up moves expected tomorrow. Let follow up buying/selling develop tomorrow then final conclusions will be drawn from 5690-5750 break out.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 02-May-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 02-May-2011 1865.78 2126.81 -261.03

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 02-May-2011 901.12 1051.64 -150.52

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5843
R2 5809
R1 5755
Avg 5721
S1 5667
S2 5633
S3 5579

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5789     Trgt 2
H5 5769     Trgt 1
H4 5749     Long breakout
H3 5725     Go Short
H2 5717
H1 5709
L1 5692
L2 5684
L3 5676     Long
L4 5652     Short Breakout
L5 5632     Trgt 1
L6 5612     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5862
R2 5826
R1 5775
Avg 5739
S1 5688
S2 5652
S3 5601

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5812     Trgt 2
H5 5792     Trgt 1
H4 5772     Long breakout
H3 5748     Go Short
H2 5740
H1 5732
L1 5717
L2 5709
L3 5701     Long
L4 5677     Short Breakout
L5 5657     Trgt 1
L6 5637     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11864
R2 11726
R1 11505
Avg 11367
S1 11146
S2 11008
S3 10787

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11644     Trgt 2
H5 11563     Trgt 1
H4 11481     Long breakout
H3 11382     Go Short
H2 11349
H1 11316
L1 11251
L2 11218
L3 11185     Long
L4 11086     Short Breakout
L5 11004     Trgt 1
L6 10923     Trgt 2

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-CMP-5719

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5719

Pre-closing Outlook(02-05-2011)

Nifty moves 2 times below 5693 today and if sustains below then that will be Intermediate term trend turning down and deeper correction confirmation. As last 2 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation indications therefore this confirmation is must.

Mid-session Outlook-2(02-05-2011)

Market slipped after higher levels selling today and trading near 5700. Nifty sustaining below 5693 will mean crucial support breaking down and Intermediate term trend turning down as well and that will be deeper correction corfirmation.

Watch 5693 breaking down and then be bearish.

Mid-session Outlook(02-05-2011)

Intraday patterns are suggesting selling today also

Post-open Outlook(02-05-2011)

Positive opening but lost all the gains within first 5 minutes and trading in Red despite Dow's futures is trading more than 100 points up and Asian markets are positive. Nifty is trading at the higher levels of support range(5695-5730). Consolidation for any up move is must and distribution today will lead toward below 5695.

Follow up buying or selling will be decided after next 2/3 hours trading. Next moves confirmation levels have already beeen explained in Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011) 

Indian markets have shown weakness and firstly watch break out of 5730-5780 for next moves confirmations

Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)

Indian markets technical positions are as follows

1- Long term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
2- Intermediate term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 5693.
3- Short term trend is down and will be up after sustaining below 5856.
4- Tripple top formations with intraday charts distribution patterns within 5880-5912 therefore it is strong resistance and market require complete consolidation to cross it.
5- Next support range is 5695-5730 and it is weak support.
6- Nifty got intraday support between 5707-5725 on 30-04-2011.
7- Last 20 sessions trading range is 5695-5944 with tripple top and double bottom formations.

Resistance and Supports

1- Resistance at Falling Trend Line(5944)
2- Support at 5693
3- Support at 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
4- Support at 5561(Gap)
5- Support at Rising Trend Line(5561)

Supports & Resistance Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Higher levels selling is clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart therefore down moves were seen but in Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern also in last 3 days. Next support range is 5695-5730 and breaking down of 5695 will mean Intermediate term trend turning down, that will be confirmation of  more downward moves with 3 weeks to 3 months down markets.

Weekly MACD Upward intersection and Pennant Formation are telling down moves maximum upto rising trend line and then up moves. Correction is on but Long term trend is up and expectd that Nifty will condolidate after getting support at above mentioned levels and rally will remain continued.

Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.

As good selling at higher levels therefore market was down but intraday support also seen last Friday therefore firstly range bound market between 5730-5780 in the begining of week,then follow up buying or selling within this range and after that follwing ranges break out will decide next moves:-

1- 5730-5780- First strong indication of next moves but multiple resistances above 5780 and market require complete consolidation at each step for a rally.
2  5695-5912- Deeper correction below 5693 and rally confirmation above 5912

Follow up moves between 5730-5780 and according to break out next moves will be will be seen in the week.