Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5843
R2 5809
R1 5755
Avg 5721
S1 5667
S2 5633
S3 5579

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5789     Trgt 2
H5 5769     Trgt 1
H4 5749     Long breakout
H3 5725     Go Short
H2 5717
H1 5709
L1 5692
L2 5684
L3 5676     Long
L4 5652     Short Breakout
L5 5632     Trgt 1
L6 5612     Trgt 2

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 5862
R2 5826
R1 5775
Avg 5739
S1 5688
S2 5652
S3 5601

Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5812     Trgt 2
H5 5792     Trgt 1
H4 5772     Long breakout
H3 5748     Go Short
H2 5740
H1 5732
L1 5717
L2 5709
L3 5701     Long
L4 5677     Short Breakout
L5 5657     Trgt 1
L6 5637     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 03-05-2011

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Levels

R3 11864
R2 11726
R1 11505
Avg 11367
S1 11146
S2 11008
S3 10787

Bank Nifty(May Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 11644     Trgt 2
H5 11563     Trgt 1
H4 11481     Long breakout
H3 11382     Go Short
H2 11349
H1 11316
L1 11251
L2 11218
L3 11185     Long
L4 11086     Short Breakout
L5 11004     Trgt 1
L6 10923     Trgt 2

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST BUYING OF 02-05-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(MAY FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-CMP-5719

NIFTY(MAY CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5684-TGT-5784-S.P.FOR CALL-5700,5800(MAY FUT-RATES FOR ALL OPTIONS)-CMP-5719

Pre-closing Outlook(02-05-2011)

Nifty moves 2 times below 5693 today and if sustains below then that will be Intermediate term trend turning down and deeper correction confirmation. As last 2 hours intraday charts are showing consolidation indications therefore this confirmation is must.

Mid-session Outlook-2(02-05-2011)

Market slipped after higher levels selling today and trading near 5700. Nifty sustaining below 5693 will mean crucial support breaking down and Intermediate term trend turning down as well and that will be deeper correction corfirmation.

Watch 5693 breaking down and then be bearish.

Mid-session Outlook(02-05-2011)

Intraday patterns are suggesting selling today also

Post-open Outlook(02-05-2011)

Positive opening but lost all the gains within first 5 minutes and trading in Red despite Dow's futures is trading more than 100 points up and Asian markets are positive. Nifty is trading at the higher levels of support range(5695-5730). Consolidation for any up move is must and distribution today will lead toward below 5695.

Follow up buying or selling will be decided after next 2/3 hours trading. Next moves confirmation levels have already beeen explained in Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011) 

Indian markets have shown weakness and firstly watch break out of 5730-5780 for next moves confirmations

Weekly Outlook(02-05-2011 to 06-05-2011)

Indian markets technical positions are as follows

1- Long term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
2- Intermediate term trend is up and will be down after sustaining below 5693.
3- Short term trend is down and will be up after sustaining below 5856.
4- Tripple top formations with intraday charts distribution patterns within 5880-5912 therefore it is strong resistance and market require complete consolidation to cross it.
5- Next support range is 5695-5730 and it is weak support.
6- Nifty got intraday support between 5707-5725 on 30-04-2011.
7- Last 20 sessions trading range is 5695-5944 with tripple top and double bottom formations.

Resistance and Supports

1- Resistance at Falling Trend Line(5944)
2- Support at 5693
3- Support at 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632)
4- Support at 5561(Gap)
5- Support at Rising Trend Line(5561)

Supports & Resistance Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Higher levels selling is clear from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart therefore down moves were seen but in Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern also in last 3 days. Next support range is 5695-5730 and breaking down of 5695 will mean Intermediate term trend turning down, that will be confirmation of  more downward moves with 3 weeks to 3 months down markets.

Weekly MACD Upward intersection and Pennant Formation are telling down moves maximum upto rising trend line and then up moves. Correction is on but Long term trend is up and expectd that Nifty will condolidate after getting support at above mentioned levels and rally will remain continued.

Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.

As good selling at higher levels therefore market was down but intraday support also seen last Friday therefore firstly range bound market between 5730-5780 in the begining of week,then follow up buying or selling within this range and after that follwing ranges break out will decide next moves:-

1- 5730-5780- First strong indication of next moves but multiple resistances above 5780 and market require complete consolidation at each step for a rally.
2  5695-5912- Deeper correction below 5693 and rally confirmation above 5912

Follow up moves between 5730-5780 and according to break out next moves will be will be seen in the week.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intra Day Chart(15-04 to 30-04-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Main Features are as follows

1- Strong resistance between 5860-5912
2- Weak support between 5695-5730
3- Water Fall (Bullish) Pattern in last 3 days down moves.

Fistly trading between mentioned resistance and Support ranges. As good selling at higher levels therefore complete consolidation is required to cross mentioned resistances and follow up selling in the first 2 sessions of next week will mean deeper correction with Intermediate term trend turning down and testing possibility of Rising Support Line of Pennant pattern as well as 200 Day EMA(Today at 5632).

Present market is range bound range between 5695-5944 and follow up moves in the begining of week will decide deeper correction or range bound market but it is conform that market require complete consolidation and that will take its own time in consolidation process.

Weekly Bullish Patterns and Short Term Correction

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Weekly MACD

Most important development 4 week before that MACD line upward intersection of Average line and it is confirmation of rally. Weekly MACD cross over gives confirmation to long trend therefore strong confirmation to up trend 4 weeks before. Both lines started to move up near equilibrium line and MACD line has moved it above therefore it is strong indication of rally.

Short term correction is confirm but Long term trend is up and rally hope is still alive after correction completion due to above mentioned MACD upward cross over.

Continuation pattern Pennant Formation

Long term trend is up and and Weekly chart is showing Pennant pattern formation in its corrective move which is continuation pattern. It means continuation of on going trend because it is not a trend reversal pattern but trend continuation pattern. As on going trend is Bullish therefore its continuation expected after Pennant falling trend line upward intersection.

Short term correction is confirm but Long term trend is up and rally hope is still alive after correction completion and expected that on going corrective movements will be between both lines of Pennant pattern(Falling Trend Line and Rising Support Line).

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 29-Apr-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 29-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 29-Apr-2011 3023.81 3713.7 -689.89

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 29-Apr-2011 1230.42 1291.48 -61.06

Pre-closing Outlook(29-04-2011)

Following lines were told in Post-closing Report(28-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook yesterday:-

"correction minimum upto 5740. Nifty will not be able to sustain above 5800 in any positive sentiment and will test next Support range 5700-5740 tomorrow."

Following lines were told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(29-04-2011) today at 09:08:00 AM

Nifty moved below 5800 after tripple top and rounding top(Bearish) formations are indicating confirm down moves and expected that Nifty will not be able to move 5800 and will test 5740 in couple of sessions. Testing 5700 possibility can not be rules out in the coming week.

Today low is at 5709 wnich is between support range(5700-5740). Short trem trend is down and intermediate term trend will be down after sustaining below 5700. Nifty moving below 5700 possibility can not be ruled out but sustaining below 5700 will mean down moves from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Mid-session Outlook-2(29-04-2011)

Follow up selling between 5775-5800 today and as a result all those down moves are being seen which have already been told in Post-closing Report yesterday and Pre-Open Market Outlook today

Mid-session Outlook(29-04-2011)

Although view was bearish but market did not showed weakness since opening today and also base formation and intra day support seen between 5765-5775 today. Although up moves require consolidation and will be slow but we don't take risk and covered shorting positions with minor profit.

Today support between 5765-5775 and yesterday selling between 5800-5829 therefore range bound moves expectd betweeen 5775-5800 and today next 2/3 hours trading patterns will tell for next week market.

NIFTY-MAY F&O-1ST SHORTING OF 28-04-2011-COVERING

NIFTY MAY F & O(SHORTED ON 28-04-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5801

Pre-Open Market Outlook(29-04-2011)

Technical Positions,today Outlook and next possibilities have already been posted in following topic in my Blog yesterday therefore not being repeated today:-

Post-closing Report(28-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook


Nifty moved below 5800 after tripple top and rounding top(Bearish) formations are indicating confirm down moves and expected that Nifty will not be able to move 5800 and will test 5740 in couple of sessions. Testing 5700 possibility can not be rules out in the coming week.

Nifty first expected range is 5750-5780 and exiected that nifty will move below 5750 and close in Red after weak opening.

Post-closing Report(28-04-2011) & Tomorrow Outlook

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Red Candle
2- Confirm selling between 5800-5826
3- Intraday Distribution Patterns
4- All the indices closed near day's lows.

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.78
Nifty P/E Ratio(28-04-2011):21.61

Advances &  Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1045
BSE DECLINES : 1845
NSE ADVANCES :  437
NSE DECLINES :  978

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(28MAY2011)- +158350(+17.30%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28MAY2011)- +528300(+17.18%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28MAY2011)- +709250(+51.11%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28MAY2011)- +411750(+17.70%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28MAY2011)- +662000(+37.49%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28MAY2011)- -38100(-2.91%)


Closing

Nifty- closed at 5,785.45(-48.45 Points & -0.83%)
Sensex- closed at 19,292.02(-156.67 Points & -0.81% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,277.80(-61.15 Points & -61.15%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,854.08(-42.96 Points & -0.48%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intraday Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Nifty-Micro Analysis of 10 Days Intraday Chart

1-Resistance between 5874-5912
2-Resistance between 5800-5829
3-Support between 5700-5740

Tomorrow(29-04-2011) Outlook

Today whole day selling between 5800-5826 confirmed correction minimum upto 5740. Nifty will not be able to sustain above 5800 in any positive sentiment and will test next Support range 5700-5740 tomorrow.

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(28-04-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Following line was told within first 15 minutes in Post-open Outlook today

"confirm weakness indication and 5820 will be watched first and below it down move will be considered"

As today opening indicated weakness therefore told immediately and after that only weak market was suggested in all the out;ooks today.

Intraday charts of today also showing selling patterns therefore down moves will be seen in the coming sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 28-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 28-Apr-2011 4257.02 5089.61 -832.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Mayket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 28-Apr-2011 1868.83 1336.23 532.6