Correction is very much on & Wait for Consolidation

Pre-Open Market Outlook(13-04-2011)

All the Asian markets were down yesterday and SGX Nifty is trading 50 points down today therefore anyone can say for today weak Indian markets after getting negative cues but today weakness was proved at 05:45PM on 11-04-2011 through Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(11-04-2011). Today weak Indian market was clearly told even before the declaration of FII & DII trading figures on that day.

Whatsoever will happen today,has alreay been told in all the outlooks posted on 11-04-2011 now today first intraday levels have to be decided which are as follows:-

1st trading range- 5730-5760

Technicals and correction levels have already been posted therefore just click following link which was posted on 10-04-2011 and go through topic to understand Indian markets present technical positions and retracement levels:-

Firstly Correction and then Consolidation Before Decisive Rally

Correction is on and in this process next possibilitis and watching levels are as follows:-

1- Expected that Nifty will not finally sustain below 5561
2- 200 Day EMA is today at 5610 and also expected that Nifty will not sustain below it.
3- 100 Day EMA is today at 5669 and will be watched for supports getting possibility.
4- 55 Day EMA is today at 5647 and also will be watched for supports getting possibility.
5- 1st Gap will give support(5529-5561)

Short term trend is down. Long term and Intermediate term trendS are up and will be down after sustaining below 5610 and 5647 respectively.

Weak market and negative closing expected with intra day voltality and recovery from lower levels after getting intra day support is possible today.

Following lines have been told many times since previous week and being repeated again:-

Correction is on,it will take its own time in this process,let it complete and consolidation start then up moves and long positions will be considered.

Miracles of  "Intra  Day  Charts 
Micro - Analysis  Predictions " 
are Available Only In This Blog 

Post-closing Report(11-04-2011) & 13 Apr 2011 Outlook

Correction was told daily in last week and also told weak Indian markets in those 7 topics which were posted for this week trading in last 3 days. Although Business News Channels were telling for positive IIP above 5.2% but Weak market was told in Post-open Outlook before the announcement of IIP Data when Nifty was at 5819.

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Gap down
2- Trading Range- 5785-5830
3- Selling patterns between- 5792-5830
4- Panic selling by retailers after Japan Quake news therefore minor support possible in last 1 hour.
5- Red Bearish Candle
6- Closing near lows after whole day selling.


Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio:0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(08-04-2011):22.18

Advances & Declines

BSE ADVANCES :1110
BSE DECLINES :1786
NSE ADVANCES : 441
NSE DECLINES : 976

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(28APR2011)- +126450(+4.83%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(28APR2011)- +466000(+7.20%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +874000(+19.43%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- -398550(-7.33%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- -55400(-0.87%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- -532200(-16.30%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,785.70(-56.30 Points & -0.96%)
Sensex- closed at 19,262.54(-188.91 Points & -0.97%)
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,229.95(-58.35 Points & -0.70%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at  8,709.91(-62.64 Points & -0.71%)

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(11-04-2011):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

13 Apr 2011 Outlook

Selling proved in previous week between 5855-5945 and follow up selling between 5792-5830 today and no consolidation pattern today except last 1 hour intraday support possibility due to  retailers panic selling after Japan Quake news.

Opening will depend on global sentiments but expected that Nifty will finally sustain below 5800 and weak markets expected. Market require complete consolidation after mentioned selling and until that will not happen till then Indian markets will not move up.

Correction is on and let it complete then rally will begin therefore will be better to wait for completion of correction and consolidation process. Technicals and correction levels have already been posted therefore just click and go through following topic to understand Indian markets present technical positions:-

Firstly Correction and then Consolidation Before Decisive Rally

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-Apr-2011

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Apr-2011

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Apr-2011 1997.6 2688.82 -691.22

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Aprket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Apr-2011 957.47 693.66 263.81

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart(11-04-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Intraday Charts showed selling patterns whole day. Weak market was told in all the yesterday outlooks and also told immediately after opening in Post-open and Mid-session Outlooks.

Micro-Analysis of previous Week Intra Day Chart was posted with clearly showing intra day selling ranges. Follow up selling today is indicating more down moves in the coming sessions.

Pre-closing(11-04-2011)

As per News channels Japan has taken back tsunami warning

Although Indian markets are technically weak but panic selling due to this news can not be advised.

Traders usually sells after such news and big players sometimes buy and cover their shorts therefore no panic selling and just wait and understand technical positions and fresh shorting should be done after fresh distribution patterns.

7.1 magnitude quake hits Japan, tsunami warning issued

SENDAI, JAPAN: A magnitude-7.1 aftershock has rattled Japan on the one-month anniversary of a massive earthquake that spawned a deadly tsunami.

The epicentre is close to the nuclear plant crippled by the tsunami a month ago. The US geological survey said the 7.1 magnitude onshore quake hit with a depth of just 10 kilometres (six miles), its epicentre 86 kilometres south-southeast of Fukushima city.

Japan's meteorological agency issued a tsunami warning saying a one-metre (three feet) wave could hit Ibaraki prefecture, the area worst hit by last month's massive tsunami.

A wave half a metre high was expected in Fukushima prefecture.

Narita airport temporarily closed a runway following the quake for safety checks.

Mid-session Outlook(11-04-2011)

Micro-Analysis of today first hour Intra Day charts suggested selling patterns therefore weak market for told in Pre-open Outlook before the declaration of declining  IIP Data. I told for Weak market when all the Business News Channels were telling for positive IIP above 5.2%.

Although sharp surge seen but no signs of consolidation and distribution paterns seen therefore more weakness expected.

Post-open Outlook(11-04-2011)

Gap down opening today and negative zone trading after opening today. Weak market expected today. Market trend and technicals have already been explained in 7 topics..posted in last 3 days.

Miracles of Intra Day Charts Micro-Analysis Predictions are Available Only In This Blog & No Where in India

Firstly Correction and then Consolidation Before Decisive Rally

Weekly Analysis-11-04-2011 to 15-04-2011

5911 target was given and after its achieving correction possibility was told daily in previous week because indicators were overbought and sentiment was heated therefore correction was technical requirement and it started in previous week.

All trends are up,Wave-5 is on and corrective Sub Wave-F is on after Sub Wave-E fast 596 points gains in 13 sessions. Nifty traded most of the time between 5855-5945 in previous week and weekly range broken down in last hours on 08-04-2011. As weekly range was broken down in previous week therefore deeper correction possiblity turned higher and confirmation will be sustaining below 5855 in the begining of coming week.

1- Waves Structure-chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

2- Sub Wave-F is on- chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

3- Micro-Analysis of previous Week Intra Day Chart(Weekly Trading Range 5855-5945 and its Breaking Down Chart):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Micro-Analysis of previous week intraday chart is confirming distribution in previous week and breaking down of weekly trading rahge is also clear from last Friday intraday chart Micro-Analysis. It is confirmation of correction and its continuation will be seen in the coming week.

Nifty traded most time between 5855-5945 in previous week and sustaining below 5855 will rule out the possibility of range bound correction and in that situation deeper correction will be seen according to Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Weekly indicators are showing begining and continuation of upmoves while daily indicators are overbought and showing begining of correction. Firstly Daily indicators will cool down and after that rally will resume after last week begun correction completion.

Weekly MACD upward intersection of Average Line is crucial development and confirmation of strong rally after last week correction completion.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels should be watched after sustaining below 5855 and as per my view following levels should be watched specially for correction completion confirmation:-

1- 5762
2- 5651
3- 5561

Finally strong rally expected but before that correction will be seen. Market require complete consolidation after last week selling and until that will not happen till then fresh up move will not start. Let correction complete then up move will be considered. Slipping expected in the begining of week, Correction will take its own time in its process and its completion not expected in the coming week.

If Nifty sustains below 5855 then deeper down moves and Red weekly closing will be seen

Micro-Analysis of previous Week Intra Day Chart(04-Apr to 08-Apr-2011)

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Following selling conclusions from Previous week intraday chart Micro-Analysis 

1- Last 4 days selling at higher levels.
2- Lower top and lower bottom formations.
3- Whole week trading Range between 5855-5945
4- Weekly range breaking down in last hours on 08-04-2011

Post-closing Report(08-04-2011) & Monday Outlook

Fresh selling between 5857-5870
3 days range(5855-5945) broken down
New weekly low formation.
Closing near weekly lows

Ratios:

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Nifty P/E Ratio: 22.18

Advances & Declines:

BSE ADVANCES : 1000
BSE DECLINES : 1966
NSE ADVANCES :  335
NSE DECLINES : 1092

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today:-

Nifty- 5800 CE(28APR2011)- +447550(+10.62%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(28APR2011)- +49450(+/+0.87%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(28APR2011)- +383250(+6.37%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(28APR2011)- -425450(-11.37%)

Closing :-

Nifty- closed at 5,842.00(-43.70 Points & -0.74%)
Sensex- closed at 19,451.45(-139.73 Points & -0.71%% )
CNX MIDCAP - closed at 8,288.30(-130.75 Points & -1.55%)
BSE SMALL CAP- closed at 8,772.55(-124.64 Points & -1.40%)

Nifty Intra Day Chart of Today:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Monday(11-04-2011) Outlook


Correction is confirm market is prepared for some more down moves. Expected that Nifty will move below  5800 and short term trend will also be down. Market slipped without force on 08-04-2011 therefore early correction completion may be expected but complete consolidation is required for any rally.

5855 will be watched and sustaining below will mean deeper corrction and its possibility can not be ruled out.

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Conclusions from Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- All(5,21,34,55) the shorter term weekly averages are above longer term weekly averages and Nifty is above all.It is Bullish market confirmation.

2-Bollinger Band- Nifty is in the middle of band little above middle line and indicating possibility of more up moves.

3- MACD- Most important development this week that MACD line intersected Average line up side and given confirmation to rally. Weekly MACD cross over gives confirmation to long trend therefore strong confirmation to up trend.

4-ROC- moved above equalibrium line and given up moves confirmations.

5-RSI- moved above equalibrium line and given up moves confirmations.

6-Slow Stochastic- Both lines in overbought zone but tend to remin in overbought area for a longer period and until other indicators does not gives downward confirmation till then will remain in overbought zone.

7-William %R- is below overbought zone,moving upward and showing more upmoves possibility.

Conclusion


Weekly indicators are showing begining and continuation of upmoves while daily indicators are overbought and showing begining of correction. Firstly Daily indicators will cool down and after that rally will resume after last week begun correction completion.

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

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Long Term and Intermediate term trends are up and very short term trend is down.

Conclusions from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- All(8,21,55,200) the shorter term averages are above longer term averages and Nifty is above all.It is Bullish market confirmation.

2-Bollinger Band- Upper Band moved up with Nifty rally and gap between both bands expanded. Squeeezing of both bands is technical requirement. It is the nature of  Bollinger band that price tends to return to the middle of the bands and Nifty retracement toward the middle of Band is possible which is near 5700.

3-MACD- MACD Line is above Average Line and gap increased in both lines therefore convergance in both lines is technical requirement. Nifty down move has begun in previous week and more down move is also possible in the process of convergance.

4-ROC- is retracing and equalibrium line testing possibility can not be rules out in correction process.

5-RSI- is retracing from overbought zone and equalibrium line testing possibility can not be rules out in correction process.

6-Slow Stochastic- very short term fast moving indicator and both lines have started to move down from overbought zone and indicating more down moves

7-William %R- very short term fast moving indicator and in overbought zone. It has tendency to remin overbought. As other indicators are also indicating correction therefore  its dipping from overbought can not be ruled out.

Conclusion

Correction begun in previous week and insicators are suggesting its continuation in the coming week

Weekly MACD upward intersection & Weekly Gravestone Doji Candle

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Weekly MACD upward intersected Average Line in previous week after 19-11-2011 and given positive moves strong indication but on the other hand 'Gravestone Doji Candle'(Bearish) formation in previous week

Weekly MACD:- 3rd wave which begun on 13-07-2009 from 3919, terminated at 6338 on 05-11-2010 and 4th corrective wave begun which terminated at 5177 on 11-02-2011. Weekly MACD upward intersection Average Line in previous week is 4th corrective wave termination and 5th impulsive wave begining confirmation.

Gravestone Doji:- 5th impulsive wave begun on 11-02-2011 from 5177 and faced resistance at 5944 in previous week. Gravestone Doji weekly Candle in previous week is Short term correction begining confirmation of 1st leg of 5th wave.

Conclusion

Nifty will first correct 1st leg of 5th wave(5177-5944) according to Fibonacci Retracement levels in the coming week and then rally will begun to test levels above 6120.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Rally begun on 11-02-2011 from 5177
Correction of this rally begun on 06-04-2011 from 5944

Fibonacci Retracement Levels of on going correction are as follows:-


13.0%- 5844
23.6%- 5762
27.0%- 5736
38.2%- 5651
50.0%- 5560
61.8%- 5469
70.7%- 5401
76.4%- 5358
78.6%- 5341
88.6%- 5264

Micro-Analysis of Nifty Intra Day Charts(08-04-2011)

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1- Selling between 5855-5875
2- Down Move in Falling Channel
3- Slow Down Move without Force
4- Intra day last hour consolidation between 5823-5842

Last 3 days range broken down after intraday selling but breaking down is without force in falling channel and last hour intra day consolidation seen between 5823-5842.

Conclusion
Correction is confirm on but breaking down move was without force therefore it is an indication of early correction completion but market require confirmations. Firstly complete consolidation and then crossing of immediate resistance will be first corretion completion confirmation.

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 08-Apr-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-04-2011

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6008
R2 5967
R1 5904
Avg 5863
S1 5800
S2 5759
S3 5696

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5946     Trgt 2
H5 5922     Trgt 1
H4 5899     Long breakout
H3 5870     Go Short
H2 5861
H1 5851
L1 5832
L2 5822
L3 5813     Long
L4 5784     Short Breakout
L5 5761     Trgt 1
L6 5737     Trgt 2