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Pre-closing outlook(14-03-2011)
Strong recovery from lower levels today but Nifty is range bound between 5400-5600 for the last 10 sessions therefore sustaining above 5600 will also be watched for long term trend and all trends confirmations. If market favourable news comes from Libya and Japanese Nuclear plants then Nifty above 5600 will certainly be expected.
News based markets between 5400-5600 and get confirmation from sustaining beyond mentioned range only.
Global Shocks Proof,Next Trend Decider & Strong support- 5400
"Global Shocks Proof,Next Trend Decider & Strong support- 5400"
Above line is not being told today after watching today market but repeated again and again in every outlook after Japan earthquake:-
1- Following lines were told in Japan earthquake & Indian Stock Markets Technicals(Post-closing outlook(11-03-2011):-
"Japan earthquake proved strong support at 5400"
Just click following link of my blog in which importance of 5400 support was written from begining to last after Japan earthquake on 11-03-2011 :-
http://enjoydailyprofits.blogspot.com/2011/03/japan-earthquake-indian-stock-markets_11.html
2- Weekly Analysis- 14-03-2011 to 18-03-2011:-
"Minimum 5 times told about the importance of 5400 and reasons of its importance also given."
3- Pre-Open Market Outlook(14-03-2011):-
Importance of 5400 with 3 reasons given and clearly today today for trading within range of 5400-5500 and Nifty is trading within this range since opening today.
Nifty got good support at 5400 in most adverse situations and if sustains above then fresh up moves will certainability will be considered.first of all 5400-5500 will be watched and if Japanese nuclear radiation and Libyan internal situation does not worsen then moves above 5500 will certainly be considered.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(14-03-2011)
Nifty got support 2 times at and above 5400 in most following negative news effected previous week:-
1- DMK support withdrawing news on Monday
2- Gaddafi attack on oil infrastructure news on Thursday
3- Japan earthquake news on Friday
Good support at 5400 and surviving because no cracking like situation in Asian markets therefore first of all 5400-5500 will be watched and if Japanese nuclear radiation and Libyan internal situation does not worsen then Nifty is expected above 5400 and coming sessions intraday trading patterns will decide Indian markets reaction on Global negative developments.
Last Friday range(5400-5500) is next trend decider and expected that Nifty will trade whole day within this range, trading patterns within this range will decide next Indian markets and break out of this range will give confirmation to next Indian markets.
Indian Markets after Japanese Earthquake & Trading Policies
2011 begun with strong note but indian markets started crashing after non stop non ending flood negative news flow. Last week was its extreme.
"Nifty plummeted by 94 points in last week,firstly on account of the political drama between the DMK and Congress,then escalation of violence in Libya and in the last earthquake in Japan."
DMK and Congress issue has been resolved but no solution of Libyan internal disturbance and radiation risk after blast in Japanese Nuclear Reactor. Libya problem may boil crude rates and Japanese problems will hamper global economy as well as quantum of nuclear radiation risk is not known yet.
Uncertainity will prevail long, Indian stock markets will open and trade in most bearish and confused sentiment in the coming sessions. First of all it has to be understood how Indian markets wil be finally reacting on all these calamities:-
Long term trend is confirm down and Nifty retraced from 200 Day EMA(5600) 2 times in last 2 months after forming rounding top. Nifty also recovered 2 times from 5200 which had been strong support. Nifty recovered 2 times from 5400 in last week therefore 5400 is also a support. Internediate term and Short term trends were side ways and turned confirm down last Friday.
1- 2 Rounding Top Resistances at 5600 Chart:-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
1- 5400- Nifty slipped after earthquake news and recovered from here on 11-03-2011.
2- 5200- Rally started from here in July 2010 after good consolidation and also gave support near 5200 in last 2 months.
2-Immediate Supports & Resistances Chart:-
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| Just click on chart for its enlarged view |
Immediate possibility of crossing 5600 is negligible. Nifty survived above 5400 after DMK support withdrawing news on Monday,Gaddafi attack on oil infrastructure news on Thursday and Japan earthquake news on Friday therefore 5400 will be watched first and if Nifty sustains below 5400 then fast 5200 will be seen. More or less market will first understand all negative factors and its implications within 5200-5600. If Libya situations does not improve and Japanese nuclear radiation don't more deteriorate then Nifty may remain range bound within 5200-5600 and prepare for next moves. Although most depressing sentiment but following 3 declarationS will also decide Indian markets mood in the coming week:-
1- Monthly inflation data
2- RBI's mid-quarter policy
3- Advance tax numbers
As Indian markets are range bound for the last 2 months and 5200 had been strong support therefore its breaking down will be loosing of all hopes and Bear markets confirmation. If it happens then targets below 5200 will be given. Japanese calamity is worse than 2nd world war and any up move will be decided after fresh supports confirmation only.
weak Weekly opening and next markets will be decided firstly according to survival of 5400 and then 5200. View is cautious,slipping below 5400 will be strong indication of fresh down move begining and sustaining below 5200 will be confirmation long term Bearish Indian markets.
Japanese earthquake vast looses has been seen and big uncertainity about nuclear radiation and until that will not be clear till then remain cautious,its worsening and looming large will mean Nifty below 5200 therefore all its developments should be watched first.
Dipping is confirm and long positions should be created after indian markets bottoming out confirmations. As sentiment is most depressed therefore fresh shorting should be done after fresh intraday selling formations. Cautious trading because high intraday voltality may be seen also.
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-03-2011
R3 5585
R2 5543
R1 5494
Avg 5452
S1 5403
S2 5361
S3 5312
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5536 Trgt 2
H5 5515 Trgt 1
H4 5495 Long breakout
H3 5470 Go Short
H2 5461
H1 5453
L1 5436
L2 5428
L3 5419 Long
L4 5394 Short Breakout
L5 5374 Trgt 1
L6 5353 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-03-2011
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels
R3 5612
R2 5563
R1 5511
Avg 5462
S1 5410
S2 5361
S3 5309
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5560 Trgt 2
H5 5537 Trgt 1
H4 5514 Long breakout
H3 5486 Go Short
H2 5477
H1 5468
L1 5449
L2 5440
L3 5431 Long
L4 5403 Short Breakout
L5 5380 Trgt 1
L6 5357 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 14-03-2011
R3 11111
R2 11018
R1 10896
Avg 10803
S1 10681
S2 10588
S3 10466
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 10990 Trgt 2
H5 10941 Trgt 1
H4 10892 Long breakout
H3 10833 Go Short
H2 10813
H1 10793
L1 10754
L2 10734
L3 10714 Long
L4 10655 Short Breakout
L5 10606 Trgt 1
L6 10557 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(14 Mar to 18-03-2011)
Nifty Spot-Weekly LevelsR3 5691
R2 5627
R1 5536
PIVOT 5472
S1 5381
S2 5317
S3 5226
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 5601 Trgt 2
H5 5565 Trgt 1
H4 5530 Long breakout
H3 5487 Go Short
H2 5473
H1 5459
L1 5430
L2 5416
L3 5402 Long
L4 5359 Short Breakout
L5 5324 Trgt 1
L6 5288 Trgt 2
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-03-2011
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Japan earthquake & Indian Stock Markets Technicals
Japan earthquake proved strong support at 5400 bcause:-
1- Nifty got support at 5411 today after Japan earthquake news.
2- Nifty got support at 5408 on 07-03-22011 after DMK support withdrawl news.
Today global down moves are immdiate reaction of earthquake,achual losses and its after effectes will be understood in the coming days. 5400 has become trend decider today and its sustainability side will decide give following conclusions:-
1- Nifty above 5400 will mean- upmove hopes are alive and Nifty sustaining above will mean worst is over.
2- Nifty below 5400 will mean- fast down toward 5200 and Nifty sustaining below 5200 will mean strong support breaking down and confirmation of long Bear phase.
I have already told in last 2 sessions that intraday charts of last 3 sessions within 5470-5530 are suggesting condolidations and down moves are on the back of adverse news flow in last 2 sessions.
Firstly watch Sustining of 5400 and then trade with above mentioned views in next week.
Happy Weekend and Enjoy.
Japan hit by massive earthquake
Mid-session outlook(01-03-2011)
A powerful earthquake has struck off Japan's north-eastern coast, shaking buildings in Tokyo and forcing people out of their homes, witnesses said.
Japan issued its most serious tsunami warning, saying a wave as high as 6m (20ft) could strike the coast near Miyagi prefecture.
US officials said the 8.8-magnitude quake struck about 250 miles (400km) from Tokyo at a depth of 20 miles.
Above news triggered fresh down moves in all Asian markets and ascertained Nifty sustaining below 5470. More down moves will also be seen.
January IIP at 3.7 Vs 1.6(MoM) & Voltality
Mid-session outlook(01-03-2011)
Market is volatile immediately after IIP data announcemets. As data is positive therefore little up move seen immediately after declaration. Nifty recovered and formed the high at 5502.70 but slipped to 5469.00 also.
Market is volatile and immediate moves final conclusions should be drawn after sustaining beyond of 5470-5500 because it will be markets final judgement of its reaction on all positive and negative news.
Next Trend Confirmation Range- 5470-5500
Post-open outlook(11-03-2011)
Following lines were told in Pre-closing outlook(10-03-2011):-
"Indian markets are also weak and trading within 5470-5500 with intraday support within 5470-5480 today"
Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook(11-03-2011):-
"Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels"
Nifty is trading within 5470-5485 since opening today in most bearish sentiments. Asian markets are .75% to 1% down while Indian markets are .15% down at this moment. It is clear that Indian markets are outperforming global markets and be brarish only after sustaining below 5470.
Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels and also trading within this range since opening today in most depressing sentiments. Next immediate trend confirmation range is 5470-5500 and Nifty is trading at the midle of this range at this moment. Although sentiment is most depressing and negative news flow is high but consolidations within 5500-5530 in the first 3 sessions of this week also therefore resistances above 5500 are not strong.
Watch 5470-5500 and Be Bullish or Bearish after breaking out and sustaining beyond.
Following lines were told in Pre-closing outlook(10-03-2011):-
"Indian markets are also weak and trading within 5470-5500 with intraday support within 5470-5480 today"
Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook(11-03-2011):-
"Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels"
Nifty is trading within 5470-5485 since opening today in most bearish sentiments. Asian markets are .75% to 1% down while Indian markets are .15% down at this moment. It is clear that Indian markets are outperforming global markets and be brarish only after sustaining below 5470.
Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels and also trading within this range since opening today in most depressing sentiments. Next immediate trend confirmation range is 5470-5500 and Nifty is trading at the midle of this range at this moment. Although sentiment is most depressing and negative news flow is high but consolidations within 5500-5530 in the first 3 sessions of this week also therefore resistances above 5500 are not strong.
Watch 5470-5500 and Be Bullish or Bearish after breaking out and sustaining beyond.
Technicals are Helpless against Negative news Flow in 2011
2011 begun with positive note but immdiately after that non stop series of adverse news flow started and resultant Indian markets are crashed from higher levels. Long term trend is confirm down and intermediate term and short term trends are struggeling at 5500 in side ways moves. All the global markets tumblled yesterday after most negative development in Libya and this process is continued also and the Asian markets are trading in deep Red today morning.
Nifty traded whole day yesterday within 5470-5500 with support at lower levels but today opening and firstly trading below yesterday lows can not be ruled out because all the Asian markets are showing complete weaknes. Global pressure is high and markets will be decided according to sustainability beyond ceratin levels. Trend deciding levels are as follows:-
1- Range bound within 5400-5600 and this range break out will be confirmation of next moves. technicals are suggesting upward break out because last 4 sessions consolidation formations but negative news flow is dragging down therefore mentioned range break out will give next immediate move confirmations.
2- Long 6term trend will be up above 5600 therefore be bullish after sustaining above 5600.
3- Sharp down moves will be seen below 5400.
Firstly watch 5400-5600 break out and sustaining beyond because that will give confirmation to Indian markets reaction on all global negative developments.
FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-03-2011
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment | |||||||||||||||||
| The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 10-Mar-2011. | |||||||||||||||||
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| Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment | |||||||||||||||||
| The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 10-Mar-2011. | |||||||||||||||||
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Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011
Nifty Spot-Levels
R3 5565
R2 5540
R1 5517
Avg 5492
S1 5469
S2 5444
S3 5421
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5542 Trgt 2
H5 5531 Trgt 1
H4 5520 Long breakout
H3 5507 Go Short
H2 5502
H1 5498
L1 5489
L2 5485
L3 5480 Long
L4 5467 Short Breakout
L5 5456 Trgt 1
L6 5445 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011
R3 5573
R2 5544
R1 5524
Avg 5495
S1 5475
S2 5446
S3 5426
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5553 Trgt 2
H5 5542 Trgt 1
H4 5530 Long breakout
H3 5517 Go Short
H2 5512
H1 5508
L1 5499
L2 5495
L3 5490 Long
L4 5477 Short Breakout
L5 5465 Trgt 1
L6 5454 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-03-2011
R3 11165
R2 11066
R1 10972
Avg 10873
S1 10779
S2 10680
S3 10586
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11072 Trgt 2
H5 11028 Trgt 1
H4 10984 Long breakout
H3 10931 Go Short
H2 10913
H1 10895
L1 10860
L2 10842
L3 10824 Long
L4 10771 Short Breakout
L5 10727 Trgt 1
L6 10683 Trgt 2
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