Positive Budget and Nifty trading and sustaining above 5375 after its announcement.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session outlook(28-02-2011)
Positive Budget and Nifty trading and sustaining above 5375 after its announcement.
Pre Budget 2011-12 Technical Analysis
Weekly Analysis- 28-02-2011 to 04-03-2011
All trends are down and rally started from 5177 has been fused below 200-Day EMA after eruption of Libyan internal problems in last week. Multiple resistances are above 5600 but below it strong resistance range also below 5520 and Indian market requires complete consolidation process to cross 5520. Next crucial supoport near 5200 and slipping below it will mean ceratin testing os levels below 5000.
1- Multiple Resistances and only one Support Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
2-10 Days Intraday Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
Conclusion from above 2 charts analysis:-
Next support,resistances and next trend deciding ranges are as follows:-
1- 4460-5520(Strong resistance and Trend Decider)
2- 5350-5375(Testing possible in expectation of good budget)
3- 5235-5275(Support and Testing possible in Buget Voltality)
4- 5275-5460(Next trend deciding range)
5- Trading at Falling Channel Upper Line
3-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
Conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis:-
1-Averages- All the averages(8,21,55,200) are sliding and Nifty is trading below all of them. It is most bearish situation and indicating bounce back possibility only.
2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is rising and upper band is sliding.Nifty is trading near the lower band therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling relief rally possibility to recover from oversold situation.
3- MACD- MACD line is sliding,Average line is rising and both lines are in kissing position in negative zone therefore not indicating immediate next move. Downward intersection of average line will give down move confirmation and reversing to upside will give fresh upmove confirmation. No indication from this important indicator.
4-ROC- Reversing down and resting at zero line therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
5-RSI- Reversing down and resting at 50(equilibrium line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
6-Slow Stochastic- Reversing down and resting at 30(above oversold line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
7-William %R- Reversing down and resting at 20(above oversold line) therefore not showing any immediate move indication.
Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)
All the indicators are quiet and not showing any side moves. As indicators are near oversold zone therefore indicating short term bounce back possibility only. Market is moving down in falling channel and Nifty is trading at falling channel Upper Line for the last 2 days therefore not showing any side move confirmation.
4-Intraday chart of 25-02-2011 Chart:-
(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)
4460-5520 is strong resistance range and 5235-5275 is minor support range because intraday chart of 25-02-2011 is showing consolidation pattern and candle was Bullish Hammer. As strong resistances are at higher levels therefore Indian markets require complete consolidation to cross and sustain above 5520 and until it will not happen today till then Nifty will not cross 5520 despite whatsoever may be Budget proposals today.
Minor support within 5235-5275 and market require selling(distribution intraday patterns) before and during budget speech time and its happening will mean immediate sharp down moves below 5235 during or immediate after Budget speech.
It is very much clear that Indian markets are not prepared for immediate decisive moves after Budget. Any negative development will mean sharp down moves in Indian markets because "Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets" and supports at lower levels(near 5200) are not strong. Positive development will mean firstly consolidation within 5350-5375 and then crossing and sustaining above 5375.
As per my view First today trading range will be 5285-5375 and forceful crossing or sustaining beyond will be strong indication of that side move. Voltality may be high and next trend confirmation range of post Budget big move is 5235-5520. Intraday chart formation before and during Budget hours will give first strong indication of post budget Indian markets and crossing of above levels will give confirmations.
Market is in Bearish mode and Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets but Confirmation from break out of above menioned levels is must after last Friday consolidation pattern and Bullish Hammer candle. Whole week market will be toward the break out direction of 5275-5460.
Up moves will be slow because for every rise consolidation requires at every stage. As support at lower level is weak and below that next strong supports are at much lower levels therefore down moves may be in free fall mode also.
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy for 28-02-2011
H6 5410 Trgt 2
H5 5385 Trgt 1
H4 5361 Long breakout
H3 5332 Go Short
H2 5322
H1 5312
L1 5293
L2 5283
L3 5273 Long
L4 5244 Short Breakout
L5 5220 Trgt 1
L6 5195 Trgt 2
Sensex, Nifty down 2.8 per cent during the week on concerns over inflation
Just click on above heading for detailed news
Economic Survey 2011: Agri needs to grow at 8.5% in 2011-12
Just click on above heading for detailed news
Trading Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 5456
R2 5397
R1 5350
Avg 5291
S1 5244
S2 5185
S3 5138
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 5477
R2 5412
R1 5362
Avg 5297
S1 5247
S2 5182
S3 5132
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 28-02-2011
R3 10806
R2 10658
R1 10556
Avg 10408
S1 10306
S2 10158
S3 10056
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 28-02-2011
H5 5403 Trgt 1
H4 5376 Long breakout
H3 5344 Go Short
H2 5334
H1 5323
L1 5302
L2 5291
L3 5281 Long
L4 5249 Short Breakout
L5 5222 Trgt 1
L6 5196 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy(28 Feb to 04 Mar 2011)
H5 5533 Trgt 1
H4 5465 Long breakout
H3 5384 Go Short
H2 5357
H1 5330
L1 5277
L2 5250
L3 5223 Long
L4 5142 Short Breakout
L5 5074 Trgt 1
L6 5007 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot- Weekly Levels (28 Feb to 04 Mar 2011)
R2 5647
R1 5475
Avg 5354
S1 5182
S2 5061
S3 4889
Pre-closing outlook(25-02-2011)
"Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets"
Nothing negative in Railway Budget. All global markets and US futures are sufficiently positive today but Indian markets moved more than 2% down from day's high and then again Nifty moved up 80 points within 15 minutes. It is Pre-Budget voltality and immediate resistance range is 5290-5330. Sharp surge seen in last half hour and if Nifty moves and sustainins above 5330 today or on Monday then it will first indication of up move. Nifty sustaining below 5290 will mean fast moves toward 5177.
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-COVERING
NIFTY MAR F & O(BOUGHT ON 24-02-2011)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5322(WE SHALL BUY AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY MAR F & O(BOUGHT ON 24-02-2011)-PLEASE DO NOT COVER AT TARGET AND WAIT FOR MY COVERING MESSAGE
Quiet Marrket Waiting for Budget 2011-12
Pre-Open Market Outlook(25-02-2011)
All trends are down and all global markets crashed after Libyan unrest. Series of public movements erupted in Arabian countries and posed world wide economic challenges because non stopping phase of crude rates hike started and that will stop after cooling down the fire of all these movements Middle-East countries. In fact confidence has been shaked and it will take long time to stabilise again.
Indian markets sharp down yesterday therefore its correction in the form of very small pull back rally may be seen in expectation of good Budget and Nifty may trade within yesterday range(5242-5423) upto Budget declaration. yesterday range will break out according to budget proposals. Resistance ranges within yesterday range are as follows:-
1- 5295-5315(Minor resistance and crossing possible)
2- 5350-5375(Testing possible in expectation of good budget)
Resistance ranges above yesterday range:-
1- 5460-5515(Good selling within and until Nifty will not sustain above 5515 till then any rally can not be imagined despite whatsoever Budget-2011-2012)
2- 5530-5600(Crossing will mean worst is over)
Railway Budget today but Indian markets will wait for Budget 2011-12 and markets moves may be affected by Libyan problem,global market moves and crude price. Bear is well settled to drag down Indian markets and Bulls have to prepare and take technical positions. As water Fall(Bullish) pattern yesterday therefore resistance ranges within yesterday range will be watched first and today whole day intraday patterns will give first indication of post budget Indian markets.
Fresh cracking not expected today and opening to closing trading will be within yesterday range(5242-5423) will be seen.
Trading Levels for 25-02-2011
Nifty Spot- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 5557.00
R2 5490.00
R1 5376.00
PIVOT 5309.00
S1 5195.00
S2 5128.00
S3 5014.00
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 5574.00
R2 5507.00
R1 5393.00
PIVOT 5326.00
S1 5212.00
S2 5145.00
S3 5031.00
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 25-02-2011
R3 10932.00
R2 10790.00
R1 10500.00
PIVOT 10358.00
S1 10068.00
S2 9926.00
S3 9636.00
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 25-02-2011
H5 5419 Trgt 1
H4 5378 Long breakout
H3 5328 Go Short
H2 5312
H1 5295
L1 5262
L2 5245
L3 5229 Long
L4 5179 Short Breakout
L5 5138 Trgt 1
L6 5097 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 25-02-2011
H6 10641 Trgt 2
H5 10544 Trgt 1
H4 10447 Long breakout
H3 10328 Go Short
H2 10289
H1 10249
L1 10170
L2 10130
L3 10091 Long
L4 9972 Short Breakout
L5 9875 Trgt 1
L6 9778 Trgt 2
Post-closing report(24-02-2011)
Although whatsoever happened in indian stock markets in previous days all that I projected well in advance but I mention in that situation when there is certain crucial.
Following lines were told in Pre-open outlook today:-
slipping possibility is also high therefore supports will be watched:-
1- 5410-5415(minor support,its breaking down and moves below 5400 expected)
2- 5310-5340(Gap on 14-02-2011)
Above mentioned supports are not strong and will be blown over after any negative mood after Budget and slipping below 5310 will mean testing possibility of 5177.
I predicted only for down moves today and also told for moves below above supports and same happened,no support saved and Indian markets crashed today.
-Sensex closed 545.92 points down today.
-Nifty closed 174.85 points down today.
NIFTY-MAR F&O-1ST BUYING OF 24-02-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(MAR FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5234-TGT-5304-CMP-5275
NIFTY(MAR CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5200,5300-NIFTY(MAR FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5234-TGT-5304 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5275
(NO COVERING TODAY.COVERING WILL BE DONE TOMORROW)
NIFTY(MAR CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5200,5300-NIFTY(MAR FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5234-TGT-5304 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5275
(NO COVERING TODAY.COVERING WILL BE DONE TOMORROW)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)