Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 15-02-2011

H6 5588    Trgt 2
H5 5557    Trgt 1
H4 5527    Long breakout
H3 5491    Go Short
H2 5479
H1 5467
L1 5442
L2 5430
L3 5418    Long
L4 5382    Short Breakout
L5 5352    Trgt 1
L6 5321    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 15-02-2011

H6 11129    Trgt 2
H5 11051    Trgt 1
H4 10972    Long breakout
H3 10882    Go Short
H2 10852
H1 10822
L1 10761
L2 10731
L3 10701    Long
L4 10611    Short Breakout
L5 10532    Trgt 1
L6  10454   Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 15-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 5621
R2 5542
R1 5498
AVG 5419
S1 5375
S2 5296
S3 5252

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 5633
R2 5550
R1 5502
AVG 5419
S1 5371
S2 5288
S3 5240

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 15-02-2011

R3 11235
R2 11022
R1 10907
AVG 10694
S1 10579
S2 10366
S3 10251

Post-closing report(14-02-2011)

Indian markets botom out at 5177 on 11-02-2011 and Nifty gained 285 points in 2 sessions but before the begining of all these up moves I predicted before the begining of rally with following heading of Pre-open outlook(11-02-2011):-

"Pre-Budget Pull Back Rally Possible"

Only bullish views were expressed in last 2 sessions 7 outlooks and today outlooks as well. Result is clear and Indian markets closed with huge gains today and with good gains last Friday.

-Sensex closed 473.59 points up today.
-Nifty closed 146.00 points up today.

Mid-session outlook(14-02-2011)

Bullish views were expresssed in following lines at 01:30 pm last Friday when Nifty was at 5220:-

"As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments"

Bullish moves proved in weekly(14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011) and continuation of rally also told in today Pre-open outlook. As signals of 5th wave begining therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes fulfilment possibility is high. Although long term and intermediate term trends are stil down but expected that Nifty will finally cross all resistances and all the trends will be up after sustaining above 200-Day EMA.

Next resistance range is 5460-5520 and its crossing expected in the coming sessions after some more consolidations within it.

As 4th wave termination and 5th wave begining signals therefore views are so bullish from last Friday.

Pre-open outlook(14-02-2011)

Following points have been discussed in Weekly Analysis(14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011) and will be kept in mind to decide coming months Indian markets:-

1- Jan 2011 begun correction was Wave-4,which corrected Wave-3 rally(3919-6339) and Wave-5 begun after last week support at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line(5177).

2- After complete analysis of weekly and Daily indicators it is confirm that Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due.

3- Indian markets got good support at 5177 and moves below does not seems possible. Maximum down move last technical possibility is at 5130(calculations have been posted in weeekly). As per my view bottom has been formed and Nifty will not dip below 5177.

Global markets are positive today morning and sentiment is also heated therefore some voltality after intraday correction can not be ruled out today but rally will remain continued. Safe traders may wait for buying after completion of intraday corrections.

Wave-5 begun & Rally Expected

Weekly Analysis- 14-02-2011 to 18-02-2011

Waves structure of Indian markets is as follows:-

Nifty topped at 6357 on 08-01-2008 and Indian markets corrected that rally which started on 28-04-2003 from 929.50. 2008 was correction year and Nifty corrected in 5 waves upto 2252 on 27-10-2008. Indian markets remained range bound and consolidated 5 months within 2500-3100. Fresh rally started in March 2009 and:-

1- 1st impulsive wave begining from 2252(27-10-2008) got confirmation.
2- 1st wave finished at 4693 on 12-06-2009 and 2nd corrective wave started.
3- 2nd corrective wave finished at 3919 on 13-07-2009 and 3rd impulsive wave started.

Wave-1 gained:-4693-2252= 2441 points

As per Eliot Wave theory "Wave-3 can not be shorter than both wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore Wave-3 was bound to gain minimum points of Wave-1(2441)

Wave-3 minimum target was:- 3919(started from)+2441(minimum gain)= 6360

Wave-3 tested 6339(21 points short from its minimum target) on 05-11-2010 and "ABC" correction begun. Although Nifty could not got its minimum target(6360) and remained short by only 21 points but in 2420 points rally mere 21 points shorting is negligible and:-

4- 3rd impulsive wave termination at 6339 is confirmed on 05-11-2010 and 4th corrective wave started same day.

1- Waves Structure of Indian markets Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

5- Wave-4 corrective wave has to correct 2440 points up move of Wave 3 and Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-3 are as follows:-

38.2%- 5414(Has been corrected)
50.0%- 5129(Has to correct)
61.8%- 4843
70.7%- 4628
76.4%- 4490
78.6%- 4436
88.6%- 4194

2-Fibonacci Correction levels of Wave-3 Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

6- Wave-4 is correcting in "ABC" waves and according to "ABC" waves structure correction Targets are as follows:-

1- 'A' Wave- 6339-5690= 649 points down
2- 'B' Wave- 6181-5690= 491 points UP
3- 'C' Wave- Target-

1-6181-649(100.0% Retracement)=5532
2-6181-897(138.2% Retracement)=5284
3-6181-974(150.0% Retracement)=5207(Has been corrected)
4-6181-1050(161.8% Retracement)=6131(Has to correct)

3-ABC corrcetion Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions from Waves structure Analysis

Termination point of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 level has to be acquired. Possibilities are as follows:-


1- Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement 50% level is at '5129' and "C" Wave 161.8% Retracement target is at '6131' therefore "Wave-4 termination snd Wave-5 begining possibility near 5130 is high." 


3- As Nifty got good support near 5200 and reversed sharply from 5177 on 11-02-2011  therefore termination of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 can not be ruled out last Friday.


Either Wave-5 has been started last Friday after completion of "ABC" correction or will positively start from 5130 which is support from 2 different technical angles.

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the main averages. It is showing complete weakness because Nifty is below 55-Week EMA AND Nifty has to sustain above it for any sustained rally.Rally begining will get confirmation after moving above 5-Week EMA. As showed complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum a relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding with the fall of Nifty value and Nifty is below lower band for the last 2 weeks. As strong buying may push if price is well below lower band  therefore showing up moves possibilities.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in near zero line and gap increased between both lins therefore upmoves indicating to converge both lines.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- In oversold zone and moved up last Ftiday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 4 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 5 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

4- Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

conclusion from Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators and Nifty below Bollinger Band are showing pull back rally rally and bounce back confirm possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators to recover and normalise oversold indicators.


Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- Most shorter term averages are below longer term averages and Nifty is below all. It is showing complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding steeply with the fall of Nifty value.All upper,middle and lower are moving downward therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling minimum relief rally to recover from oversold situation.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in oversold zone and MACD line is below Average line. No positive divergence but both lines are in deep oversold area therefore indicating minimum small upmoves possibilities.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- No divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time


7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time
      
Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators are showing minimum a pull back rally rally or bounce back possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators recovering from oversold zones.


Supports at Crucial Levels on 11-02-2011

1- Strong Support at 5210
2- Support at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line

6-Supports at Crucial Levels Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Weekly and Daily indicators are oversold therefore Pull Back rally/Relief rally/Bounce back is very much due and that will be seen in the coming week. Nifty got support near 5210 and at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line last Friday therefore Wave-4 "ABC" correction termination begining of Wave-5 from here possibility is high.


Although 5130(reasons already explained above) is technical possibility but after finding good support near 5210 in last 2 sessions it seems very much possible that Wave-5 has begun last Friday and fresh rally will spark in the coming wek. 


As sentiment heated therefore intraday correction expected on Monday but Rally will be seen finally.

Rally(Wave-5) started from 5177 on 11-02-2011

 Waves structure of Indian markets is as follows:-

Nifty topped at 6357 on 08-01-2008 and Indian markets corrected that rally which started on 28-04-2003 from 929.50. 2008 was correction year and Nifty corrected in 5 waves upto 2252 on 27-10-2008. Indian markets remained range bound and consolidated 5 months within 2500-3100. Fresh rally started in March 2009 and:-

1- 1st impulsive wave begining from 2252(27-10-2008) got confirmation.
2- 1st wave finished at 4693 on 12-06-2009 and 2nd corrective wave started.
3- 2nd corrective wave finished at 3919 on 13-07-2009 and 3rd impulsive wave started.

Wave-1 gained:-4693-2252= 2441 points

As per Eliot Wave theory "Wave-3 can not be shorter than both wave-1 and Wave-5 therefore Wave-3 was bound to gain minimum points of Wave-1(2441)

Wave-3 minimum target was:- 3919(started from)+2441(minimum gain)= 6360

Wave-3 tested 6339(21 points short from its minimum target) on 05-11-2010 and "ABC" correction begun. Although Nifty could not got its minimum target(6360) and remained short by only 21 points but in 2420 points rally mere 21 points shorting is negligible and:-

4- 3rd impulsive wave termination at 6339 is confirmed on 05-11-2010 and 4th corrective wave started same day.

1- Waves Structure of Indian markets Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

5- Wave-4 corrective wave has to correct 2440 points up move of Wave 3 and Fibonacci retracement levels of Wave-3 are as follows:-

38.2%- 5414(Has been corrected)
50.0%- 5129(Has to correct)
61.8%- 4843
70.7%- 4628
76.4%- 4490
78.6%- 4436
88.6%- 4194

2-Fibonacci Correction levels of Wave-3 Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

6- Wave-4 is correcting in "ABC" waves and according to "ABC" waves structure correction Targets are as follows:-

1- 'A' Wave- 6339-5690= 649 points down
2- 'B' Wave- 6181-5690= 491 points UP
3- 'C' Wave- Target-

1-6181-649(100.0% Retracement)=5532
2-6181-897(138.2% Retracement)=5284
3-6181-974(150.0% Retracement)=5207(Has been corrected)
4-6181-1050(161.8% Retracement)=6131(Has to correct)

3-ABC corrcetion Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions

Termination point of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 level has to be acquired. Possibilities are as follows:-

1- Wave-3 Fibonacci retracement 50% level is at '5129' and "C" Wave 161.8% Retracement target is at '6131' therefore "Wave-4 termination snd Wave-5 begining possibility near 5130 is high."

3- As Nifty got good support near 5200 and reversed sharply from 5177 on 11-02-2011  therefore termination of Wave-4 and begining of Wave-5 can not be ruled out last Friday.

Either Wave-5 has been started last Friday after completion of "ABC" correction or will positively start from 5130 which is support from 2 different technical angles.

As per my view Rally(Wave-5) has started from 5177 last Friday and sustaining above 5210 will be 100% confirmation.

Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

1-Averages- Nifty is below all the main averages. It is showing complete weakness because Nifty is below 55-Week EMA AND Nifty has to sustain above it for any sustained rally.Rally begining will get confirmation after moving above 5-Week EMA. As showed complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum a relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding with the fall of Nifty value and Nifty is below lower band for the last 2 weeks. As strong buying may push if price is well below lower band  therefore showing up moves possibilities.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in near zero line and gap increased between both lins therefore upmoves indicating to converge both lines.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- In oversold zone and moved up last Ftiday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 4 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 5 weeks and signalling rally possibility any time

conclusion from Weekly Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators and Nifty below Bollinger Band are showing pull back rally rally and bounce back confirm possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators to recover and normalise oversold indicators. 

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

1-Averages- Most shorter term averages are below longer term averages and Nifty is below all. It is showing complete weakness therefore suggesting minimum relief rally.

2-Bollinger Band- Lower band is sliding steeply with the fall of Nifty value.All upper,middle and lower are moving downward therefore confirming complete weakness and signalling minimum relief rally to recover from oversold situation.

3- MACD- Both lines are sliding in oversold zone and MACD line is below Average line. No positive divergence but both lines are in deep oversold area therefore indicating minimum small upmoves possibilities.

4-ROC- Positive divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

5-RSI- No divergence in oversold zone and moved up last Friday therefore suggesting upmoves possibilities

6-Slow Stochastic- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time


7-William %R- Very short term indicator and not habitual to live much time in oversold zone but stayed for the last 25 sessions and signalling rally possibility any time

conclusion from Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Completely oversold Indicators are showing minimum a pull back rally rally or bounce back possibility. Expected that up moves will be seen in Indian markets for indicators recovering from oversold zones.        

Profitable Predictions

Post-closing report(11-02-2011)

Following conclusive Bullish lines were told in 3 outlooks on 11-02-2011 which prooved not only accurate but also provided accurate guidence at crucial points during trading hours:-

1- Pre-open outlook- "Sustaining above 5220 and positive closing expected today"

2- Mid-session outlook(When Nifty was below 5200)- "As support seen near 5200 yesterday therefore it has to be ascertained today that today move below 5200 is genuine down move or IIP data negative news impact only"

3- Mid-session outlook-2(When Nifty moved above 5200)- "As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments"

When Nifty was trading below 5200 and whole sentiment was completely depressing after weaker IIP data then at that time doubts were shown on that down moves and immediately bullish views posted above 5200.

Nifty closed above 5300 Indian markets closed with good gains according to positive closing views expressed before opening on Indian markets:-.

-Sensex closed 265.57 points up on 11-02-2011
-Nifty closed 84.20 points up at 5310 on 11-02-2011

Supports at Crucial Levels on 11-02-2011

Supports at Crucial Levels on 11-02-2011:-

1- Strong Support at 5210
2- Support at Wave-3 Corrections Rising Trend Line

Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 14-02-2011

H6 5475      Trgt 2 
H5 5438      Trgt 1
H4 5401      Long breakout 
H3 5359      Go Short 
H2 5345
H1 5331
L1 5302
L2 5288
L3 5274      Long 
L4 5232      Short Breakout 
L5 5195      Trgt 1 
L6 5158      Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Feb Fut)-Trading Strategy for 14-02-2011

H6 10902     Trgt 2 
H5 10798     Trgt 1
H4 10695     Long breakout 
H3 10578     Go Short 
H2 10539
H1 10500
L1 10423
L2 10384
L3 10345     Long 
L4 10228     Short Breakout 
L5 10125     Trgt 1 
L6 10021     Trgt 2

Trading Levels for 14-02-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 14-02-2011

R3 5502
R2 5410
R1 5360
AVG 5268
S1 5218
S2 5126
S3 5076

Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 14-02-2011

R3 5526
R2 5427
R1 5372
AVG 5273
S1 5218
S2 5119
S3 5064

Bank Nifty Feb Futures Levels for 14-02-2011

R3 11041
R2 10772
R1 10617
AVG 10348
S1 10193
S2 9924
S3 9769

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (14 Feb to 18 Feb 2011)

R3 5704
R2 5572
R1 5441
AVG 5309
S1 5178
S2 5046
S3 4915

Fibonacci levels For on going Wave-3 Correction

Correction of Wave-3 is on and this correction will be according to those Fibonacci levels which are as follows:-

38.2%- 5414
50.0%- 5129
61.8%- 4843
70.7%- 4628
76.4%- 4490
78.6%- 4436
88.6%- 4194

Targets of ongoing "ABC" Correction

3rd impulsive wave termination at 6339 is confirmed on 05-11-2010 and 'A' wave of 4th corrective wave started same day.

"ABC" correction Target

1- 'A' Wave- 6339-5690= 649 points down
2- 'B' Wave- 6181-5690= 491 points UP
3- 'C' Wave- Target-

1-6181-649(100.0% Retracement)=5532
2-6181-897(138.2% Retracement)=5284
3-6181-974(150.0% Retracement)=5207
4-6181-1050(161.8% Retracement)=6131

Pre-closing outlook(11-02-2011)

Following conclusive Bullish lines were told in today outlooks:-

1- Pre-open outlook- "Sustaining above 5220 and positive closing expected today"

2- Mid-session outlook(When Nifty was below 5200)- "As support seen near 5200 yesterday therefore it has to be ascertained today that today move below 5200 is genuine down move or IIP data negative news impact only"

3- Mid-session outlook-2(When Nifty noved above 5200)- "As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments"

Although Nifty moved below 5200 sharply but doubts expressed on that down moves and again and again whole day told for that rally which was seen despite depressing IIP data.

Mid-session outlook-2(11-02-2011)

Nifty slipped below 5200 after weaker IIP data but sustaining below was not expected therefore doubts were expressed in Mid-session outlook. It should be kept in mind that 5200 is most strong support and trend decider at present also. Sustaining beyond 5200 will decide:-

1- Sustaining below will mean levels much below 5000.
2- Sustaining above will mean revival of all those bullish expectation from which 2011 begun.

As no clear distribution pattern in last 4 months EOD charts therefore 1st Jan 2011 bullish markets hopes are still alive despite all negative developments.

Mid-session outlook(11-02-2011)

2011 is Indian stock markets Adverse News Year and markets loosing crucial supports after every such depressing news.

5210 was the most strong support and it is broken down after weaker IIP data today. As this support broken down in most bearish sentiment today therefore sustaining below 5210 will be watched first and if Nifty sustains below today then no hopes for Bulls and levels below 5000 will be seen.

As support seen near 5200 yesterday therefore it has to be ascertained today that today move below 5200 is genuine down move or IIP data negative news impact only.