ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Monetary policy management becoming tougher: RBI governor
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India Facing Inflation `Surge,' Subbarao Says Before Interest-Rate Policy
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NIFTY-JAN F&O-2ND BUYING OF 17-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5624-TGT-5744-CMP-5660
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5660
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5660
Mid-session outlook-(17-01-2011)
Highly volatile within narrow range market today and holding above 200-Day EMA despite weaker global cues. Today trading ranges 5635-5695 and this range break out will give first strong indication for deciding long term trend.
Although indian markets are trading in Red today but out performing all global markets and mentioned today range break out will give next move confirmation therefore is break out should be watched but today intraday patterns are suggesting buyingand support at lower levels therefore up move possibilities from here is still alive.
Although indian markets are trading in Red today but out performing all global markets and mentioned today range break out will give next move confirmation therefore is break out should be watched but today intraday patterns are suggesting buyingand support at lower levels therefore up move possibilities from here is still alive.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 17-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 17-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5655
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 17-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5644-TGT-5764-CMP-5686
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5644-TGT-5764 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5686
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-5644-TGT-5764 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5686
NIFTY-JAN F&O-BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011-COVERING
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5859
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 14-01-2011-MESSAGE
NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 14-01-2011)-MARKETS WILL BE VOLATILE TODAY THEREFORE COVER ONLY AFTER MY COVERING MESSAGE
Watch 200-Day EMA for long term trend confirmations.
Weekly Analysis- 17-01-2011 to 21-01-2011
Last 9 sessions sharp down moves are not technically based but only on the back of following news:-
1- 2 most depressing weekly inflation data.
2- Sharply declined IIP data.
3- Below expectations INFY quarterly results.
4- Disappointing monthly inflation data last Friday.
Nifty is trading within 5690-6339 for the last 4 months and Nifty got support at its lowest 3 times earlier but broken down and closed below it last Friday after rising monthly inflation data and tested 200-Day EMA as well. No distribution pattern but "Falling Channel" formation is seen in last 4 months EOD chart. It is continuation pattern and it means that on going up trend will remain continued. Wave 3 trend line has not breached also therefore up trend is still intact.
Waves Structure and continution Patterns in Daily Chart:-
Intermediate and short term trends are down. Although Nifty tested 200-Day EMA but closed above it last Friday therefore long term trend is still up. Wave 3 is very much on at this moment and it has tested 200-Day EMA earlier since its begining on 13-07-2009 in intermediate term corrections and Nifty tested 3rd time in on going up move. It is the nature of bull ralies that prices are tend to test 200-Day EMA in corrections and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Wave 3 will remain on and primary trend will remin up.
It is the nature of bull markets intermediate term correction that:-
1- Prices may hover around 200-Day EMA for few sessions.
2- Prices may dip below or also close 1/2 sessions below 200-Day EMA.
but long term trend will remain up Until:-
1- Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day EMA minimum 3 sessions
2- Nifty will not dip more than 3% down from 200-Day EMA
3- Nifty will not break down 200-Day EMA by force.
200-Day EMA is today at 5648 and should be watched first for mext moves confirmations. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels but distribution patterns are not seen on intraday,daily and weekly charts therefore on going down moves are only the result of extremely high inflation and RBI rates hike fear.
Conclusions
As down moves are not the result of distribution patterns therefore does not require much consolidations before any rally and sharp V-shaped recovery possibility can not be ruled out. 200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks.
Last 9 sessions sharp down moves are not technically based but only on the back of following news:-
1- 2 most depressing weekly inflation data.
2- Sharply declined IIP data.
3- Below expectations INFY quarterly results.
4- Disappointing monthly inflation data last Friday.
Nifty is trading within 5690-6339 for the last 4 months and Nifty got support at its lowest 3 times earlier but broken down and closed below it last Friday after rising monthly inflation data and tested 200-Day EMA as well. No distribution pattern but "Falling Channel" formation is seen in last 4 months EOD chart. It is continuation pattern and it means that on going up trend will remain continued. Wave 3 trend line has not breached also therefore up trend is still intact.
Waves Structure and continution Patterns in Daily Chart:-
Intermediate and short term trends are down. Although Nifty tested 200-Day EMA but closed above it last Friday therefore long term trend is still up. Wave 3 is very much on at this moment and it has tested 200-Day EMA earlier since its begining on 13-07-2009 in intermediate term corrections and Nifty tested 3rd time in on going up move. It is the nature of bull ralies that prices are tend to test 200-Day EMA in corrections and until Nifty will not sustain below it till then Wave 3 will remain on and primary trend will remin up.
It is the nature of bull markets intermediate term correction that:-
1- Prices may hover around 200-Day EMA for few sessions.
2- Prices may dip below or also close 1/2 sessions below 200-Day EMA.
but long term trend will remain up Until:-
1- Nifty will not sustain below 200-Day EMA minimum 3 sessions
2- Nifty will not dip more than 3% down from 200-Day EMA
3- Nifty will not break down 200-Day EMA by force.
200-Day EMA is today at 5648 and should be watched first for mext moves confirmations. Although Indian markets slipped from higher levels but distribution patterns are not seen on intraday,daily and weekly charts therefore on going down moves are only the result of extremely high inflation and RBI rates hike fear.
Conclusions
As down moves are not the result of distribution patterns therefore does not require much consolidations before any rally and sharp V-shaped recovery possibility can not be ruled out. 200-Day EMA is next trend decider therefore will be watched first for next moves confirmations but expected that finally Nifty will sustain above and fresh rally will be seen within couple of weeks.
Trading Levels for 17-01-11 & Next Week Levels
Nifty Spot Levels for 17-01-11
R3 5973
R2 5903
R1 5778
AVG 5709
S1 5585
S2 5515
S3 5391
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 6015
R2 5936
R1 5795
AVG 5716
S1 5575
S2 5496
S3 5355
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 11371
R2 11163
R1 10801
AVG 10593
S1 10231
S2 10023
S3 9661
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (17 Jan to 21 Jan 2011)
R3 6095
R2 6001
R1 5828
AVG 5734
S1 5561
S2 5467
S3 5294
R3 5973
R2 5903
R1 5778
AVG 5709
S1 5585
S2 5515
S3 5391
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 6015
R2 5936
R1 5795
AVG 5716
S1 5575
S2 5496
S3 5355
Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 17-01-11
R3 11371
R2 11163
R1 10801
AVG 10593
S1 10231
S2 10023
S3 9661
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (17 Jan to 21 Jan 2011)
R3 6095
R2 6001
R1 5828
AVG 5734
S1 5561
S2 5467
S3 5294
petrol price hike lesser than desired retail selling rate: IOC
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RBI will take right action to stablise prices: Pranab Mukherjee
Amid expectations that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will hike policy rates later this month to tame high inflation, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee today said the central bank will take appropriate monetary action to stabilise prices.
"Whenever the appropriate adjustment of the crucial rates is called for in the larger interest of the economy, including the price stabilistion, the RBI takes appropriate policy in consultation with the government," Mukherjee told reporters.
He was addressing a joint a press conference with World Bank group president Robert Zoellick in New Delhi.
Mukherjee said the RBI always keeps the economic situation under review.
The RBI is widely expected to raise short-term lending and borrowing rates - repo and reverse repo - in its policy review on January 25 to tame inflation, particularly food inflation.
Expensive food items pushed overall inflation to 8.43% in December, but experts say the rate of price rise will come down now since the country has seen the peak of food prices.
On inflation in India, Zoeillic said it is mainly due to supply side constraints.
"My own sense in the case of the Indian economy is that some of the inflationary pressures are more likely a function of some of the bottleneck on the supply side than they are from the demand side," he said.
Mukherjee will have pre-budget interactions with state counterparts on Wednesday, where the issue of inflation would also be discussed.
He has also written letters to states asking them to remove supply bottlenecks in food products.
RBI had raised short term rates six times last year to check inflation before pressing a pause button in December.
NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 14-01-2011-TRADE
NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5624-TGT-5744-CMP-5644
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE
FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5644
(No covering today and we shall cover in Next week)
NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5600,5700-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE
FOR SL-5624-TGT-5744 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5644
(No covering today and we shall cover in Next week)
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