Trading Levels for 14-01-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 14-01-11

R3 5948
R2 5903
R1 5827
AVG 5782
S1 5706
S2 5661
S3 5585
  
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 14-01-11

R3 5970
R2 5919
R1 5837
AVG 5786
S1 5704
S2 5653
S3 5571

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 14-01-11

R3 11485
R2 11314
R1 11021
AVG 10850
S1 10557
S2 10386
S3 10093

5 Principles of Trading

1- Always place stop loss either in yours mind or in trading terminal.
2- Always trade in that volume in which you can bear loss.
3- Never try to earn huge Profits from only one trade.
4- If confusion then close yours trade first and then think once again.
5- If can not follow market then don't trade on that particular day.

Mid-session outlook-2(13-01-2011)

Today first hour range(5812-5852) broken out in upward panic after improved inflation data declaration and market could not sustained at higher levels. It is confirm weakness signal. As follow up selling in upward panic seen today therefore further weakness possibilities have increased. If Nifty slips below 5812 then it will be down move confirmation.

Mid-session outlook(13-01-2011)

Infosys quarterly results disappointed Indian markets therefore trading in Red against bullish expectations. Infosys and RIL results having power to give decisive direction to Indian markets and sentiment is depressing after today Infosys results. Although long term trend is up but intermediate and short term trends are down also.

Nifty got support 4 times near 5700 earlier and yesterday good up move seen after nice base formations at 5715. As selling signals at higher levels and minor intraday support within 5812-5852 seen after weak opening today therefore mentioned trading range of today will be next move decider and Nifty will prepare for next moves within this range.

Let market prepare then final conclusions will be drawn according to break out of mentioned range(5812-5852).

NIFTY-JAN F&O-BOUGHT ON 12-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT ON 12-01-2011)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5855 (INFOSYS RESULTS BELOW EXPECTATIONS)

Pre-Open Market Outlook(13-01-2011)

Indian markets are moving down on extremely depressiong economic news otherwise technically bullish signals are also specially visible in intraday charts therefore I am presenting my bullish views and explaining bullish intraday patterns. Nifty recovered sharply after forming base at 5715 and about it also following lines were told at 12:30 pm yesterday:-

"At present Nifty showing support near 5715 and if this support is maintained then fresh up move from here will be considered"

As charts are suggested up moves therefore I told following following in Pre-Open Outlook yesterday:-

"My view is bullish and expecting sharp rally after sustaining above 5835"

Rally seen yesterday after forming good base at 5715 and minimuim a pull back rally expected in the coming sessions. As previous 3 sessions intraday charts are showing Water Fall pattern therefore no immediate strong resistance and continuation of yesterday begun rally expected in the coming sessions.

Since opening to closing positive market expected today.

Trading Levels for 13-01-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 13-01-11

R3 6084
R2 5979
R1 5921
AVG 5816
S1 5758
S2 5653
S3 5595
  
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 13-01-11

R3 6108
R2 5996
R1 5935
AVG 5823
S1 5762
S2 5650
S3 5589

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 13-01-11

R3 11775
R2 11479
R1 11316
AVG 11020
S1 10857
S2 10561
S3 10398

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 12-01-2011-TRADE

NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY/CALL-BUY-BTST)SL-5849-TGT-5934-CMP-5868

NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-BTST)-S.P.FOR CALL-5800,5900-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE  FOR SL-5849-TGT-5934 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5868

Mid-session outlook-2(12-01-2011)

Highly volatile and random movements therefore trading is highly risky. Let market form a base then trading according to that will be safer. At present Nifty showing support near 5715 and if this support is maintained then fresh up move from here will be considered.

Mid-session outlook(12-01-2011)

India Nov industrial growth 2.7% vs 11.3% year ago. India Nov manufacturing sector growth 2.3% vs 12.3% yr ago

Although market reacted and declined sharply but recovered also immediately and reacting in most volatile manner. It has to be kept in mind that Indian economy growth can not be evaluated from one weak IIP data but market react in its own manner. 

Although sentiment is extremely depressed but 5690 will be watched for down move confirmations. News based voltality,let market form its base and according to that final view will be formed.

Watch 5765-5835 for Next Big Move Confirmation

Pre-Open Market Outlook(12-01-2011)

Indian markets closed with minor loss after huge last hour voltality and Candle is Doji which means indecision but intraday charts of yesterday are signalling consolidation. As weekly inflation surged sharply last thursday therefore widespread fear of lower levels expectations near 5200 is every where seen and sentiment is completely depressed. Situation is alarming but will be under control and after watching last 3 sessions consolidation patterns in intraday charts it is expected that Indian markets will start to move up.

AS yesterday charts are showing consolidation patterns therefore rally is very much expected and all the bullish expectations which has been posted in last 2 sessions will be seen in the coming sessions.

Next immediate trend confimations range is 5765-5835 and nifty will blast above 5835. My view is bullish and expecting sharp rally after sustaining above 5835 and for safety just telling that:-

Watch 5765-5835 for next big move confirmation and trade accordingly to its sustaining beyond.

PM calls high-level meet to tame inflation

January 11, 2011

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday met with his ministerial colleagues to figure out ways to deal with spiraling food prices. The PM is looking to streamline the reasons behind the price escalation and find ways to prevent its re-occurrence.
The meeting has come at a time when inflation is at more than 18 per cent and the Opposition has been attacking the government for failing to control food prices.
However, the government wants to move cautiously, so as not to affect growth. It may look at taking moderate measures initially.
Along with ministers like Sharad Pawar and Pranab Mukherjee, Planning Commission deputy chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia and economic advisor Kaushik Basu were also present in the meeting.
According to sources, the meeting may be resumed either Wednesday or in the next few days as the group of ministers have almost finalised a roadmap to tackle inflation. The measures, however, will be discussed again in the presence of Pranab Mukherjee who had to leave early due to prior appointments.
Sources also say that the Prime Minister's office is likely to come out with an announcement of these measures Wednesday. Most government measures till now, like raiding onion traders or slashing import duty or even tightening monetary policy, seem to have achieved little.
Retail Onion prices continue to remain at Rs. 60-65 a kg and inflation worries has not only spooked the stock market but India's growth target is also under question now.

Source;  http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/pm-calls-high-level-meet-to-tame-inflation-135515?pfrom=home-Business

Trading Levels for 12-01-11

 Nifty Spot Levels for 12-01-11

R3 5977
R2 5910
R1 5832
AVG 5765
S1 5687
S2 5620
S3 5542
  
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 12-01-11

R3 5981
R2 59113
R1 5840
AVG 5770
S1 5699
S2 5629
S3 5558

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 12-01-11

R3 11354
R2 11166
R1 11006
AVG 10818
S1 10658
S2 10470
S3 10310

PM chairs meeting with top ministers on inflation

Tue, Jan 11, 2011 at 19:51

Concerned by sky high food inflation the Prime Minister today chaired a meeting with some of his top ministers on how to tackle food inflation. Rituparna Bhuyan reports Pranab Mukherjee, P Chidambaram and Sharad Pawar were all part of this meeting.
The points discussed in Prime Minister’s meeting include recommendations discussed by a committee of Secretaries that met on January 6 on the food price issue.

RELATED NEWS
India urges Pakistan to resume onion exports
It is learnt the Prime Minster discussed prices as well as administrative measures. The recommendations included doing away with import duty on sugar as well banning on sugar export.
The gathering would also discuss import norms for milk products and may be asked to lower local taxes in order to curb price rise in these commodities.

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/pm-chairs-meetingtop-ministersinflation_512320.html

Bankers ask RBI to cut CRR, SLR in Third Quarter Review on Jan 25

MUMBAI, January 11, 2011
Amid liquidity squeeze and a higher than expected credit offtake, bankers today requested the Reserve Bank of India to slash the CRR and SLR in its upcoming Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2010-11 on January 25, besides keeping the key policy rates unchanged.

This call comes even as both RBI as well as the government are fighting high inflation, driven by a massive jump in vegetable prices since mid-December with unseasonal rain affecting crops.

After the customary pre-policy meet with the central bank, Indian banks Association Chief Executive R Ramakrishnan told reporters that the bankers led by State Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, Bank of Baroda and Union Bank of India among others, demanded reduction in both the cash reserve ratio (CRR) and the statutory liquidity ratio (SLR).

They said it will help in tiding over the tight liquidity situation and poor deposit growth, as the credit offtake is growing above the Industry’s and RBI’s own estimates.

None of the bankers chose to speak to the media, after the meeting.

“We requested RBI to slash both the CRR as well as the SLR (amount of prudential reserves that banks keep in the form of government securities, bonds, etc), even though we admit that inflation is a big concern. We see inflation at 7 per cent by the fiscal-end. However, this is 50 basis points (bps) above RBI’s estimates for this fiscal,” Mr. Ramakrishnan said.

At present CRR - the mandatory cash balance that banks park with the RBI - stands at 6 per cent, while SLR stands at 24 per cent.

Since October, RBI temporarily brought down the SLR by 100 bps to ease the liquidity situation and at its mid-quarter review on December 16, the apex bank brought it down to 24 per cent as a permanent measure to ease the liquidity pressure in the system.

From October onwards, banks have been borrowing over Rs. 1 lakh crore from RBI everyday on an average. The central bank’s key policy rates of repo and reverse repo stand at 6.25 and 5.25 per cent, respectively.

After falling for two months, food inflation started going up since mid-December and for the week ended December 25, it jumped to 18.32 per cent due to an abnormal rise in prices of food items like onions, milk and meat.

Though headline inflation for November stood at 8.48 per cent, given the very high food inflation and the recent Rs. 3 a litre petrol price hike, December numbers may be a tad higher than the previous month.

Mr. Ramakrishanan further said, the poor deposit growth is a matter of concern for banks. Despite an increase in deposit rates, the banks have been unable to attract money from the public for quite some time now, even as they have been witnessing an good spike in fund demand.

“We see the credit growth touching 22-23 per cent by the end of the fiscal,” Mr. Ramakrishnan said.

On the lingering crisis in the microfinance industry, he said they have requested RBI to write to Andhra Pradesh so that loan recovery process can resume.

Microfinance industry has been reeling under an existential crisis following the Andhra Pradesh Ordinance to regulate the wayward ways of their recovery agents in October.

The AP move necessitated by the spate of suicides by poor borrowers was alleged to have been precipitated by the strong-arm method of the MFI recovery agents. According to Andhra government officials, about 30 persons reported to have committed suicide in the state during September-October last year due to harassment by microfinance companies.

Following this Ordinance and the resultant crisis, RBI set up a panel headed by noted chartered accountant Y.H. Malegham to suggest ways to regulate this sunshine sector. The report is expected next month.

Another flip-side was the almost complete drying up credit flow to the sector as banks refused to lend any more money to MFIs, as many of these microlenders charge over 30 per cent from borrowers while banks lend to them at around 12 per cent. Banks have been demanding MFIs to cap their lending rate at 24 per cent.

Meanwhile, the largest MFI, the Hyderabad-based SKS Microfinance today reduced interest rates to 24.55 per cent per annum from all categories of small borrowers.

Source:  http://www.thehindu.com/business/article1080950.ece

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING OF 11-01-2011-COVERING

NIFTY JAN F & O(BOUGHT TODAY)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5823

NIFTY-JAN F&O-1ST BUYING TRADE OF 11-01-2011

NIFTY(JAN FUT-BUY-POSITIONAL)SL-5744-TGT-6014-CMP-5775

NIFTY(JAN CALL OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR CALL-5800,5900-NIFTY(JAN FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-5744-TGT-6014 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5775

Trading Levels for 011-01-11

Nifty Spot Levels for 11-01-11

R3 6032.33
R2 5969.67
R1 5866.33
PIVOT 5803.67
S1 5700.33
S2 5637.67
S3 5534.33
  
Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 11-01-11

R3 6056.00
R2 5990.00
R1 5878.00
PIVOT 5812.00
S1 5700.00
S2 5634.00
S3 5522.00

Bank Nifty Jan Futures Levels for 11-01-11

R3 11482.00
R2 11310.00
R1 11008.00
PIVOT 10836.00
S1 10534.00
S2 10362.00
S3 10060.00

Pre-Open Market Outlook(11-01-2011)

Indian markets are completely under performing all global markets for the last 4 months and range bound within 5690-6339. Following parameters were suggesting stopping of down moves and begining of fresh up moves yesterday:-

1- Pennant formation in both EOD and Weekly charts. As it is continuation pattern therefore on going uptrend was expected after its upward break out.
2- As no distribution Pattern seen therefore down moves were not seen.
3- As last 3 sessions were showing consolidation patterns therefore fresh upmoves were projected.
4- Rising trendlines not breached therefore up trend was safe.

Indian markets are already weak in comparasion to global markets and all the world markets showed down moves in following manner yesterday:-

1- All the Asian markets slipped from flat opening and firstly little weak trading.
2- All the European markets moved down after weak opening.
3- US futures moved more than 50 points down after whole day Red zone trading.

As all the Global markets showed down moves therefore already weak Indian markets slipped sharply and closed in deep Red yesterday. Pennant as well as short term trend lines also broken down therefore down ward trend risk has certainly increased yesterday. As intraday charts are again not showing distribution patterns but signalling consolidation yesterday therefore if consolidation develop today then following form of up moves will be considered:-

1- As Very short term indicators are oversold therefore firstly correction(Minor Pull Back rally) of 438 points down moves in last 5 sessions.
2- As long term tren is up therefore bounce back.
3- As last 3 sessions steep fall is showing consolidation pattern of Water Fall therefore V-Shaped recovery possibility is also alive.

Although steep fall seen yesterday but intraday charts not showing distribution patterns therefore I am expecting above mentioned 3 up moves possibilities one by one in the coming sessions and telling one precaution for fresh long positions is that before going long just get confimation of down moves bottoming out.

Mid-session outlook(10-01-2011)

All the asian markets trading in red and flat trading us futures is also now more than 50 points down therefore indian markets slipped again and formed new lows. Although up move expected but after weaker global cues market slipped sharply. Nifty not holding at higher levels confirming weakness and sustaining below 5820 will mean down move confirmations and more down moves as well.

Fresh Rally in Next Week After Short Term Correction Completion in Last Week

Weekly Analysis- 10-01-2011 to 14-01-2011

Most encouraging with expectation of 6500 begun week ended in most depressing mood with possibility of 5500 in most of the participants' mind.

Most reacted whole week moves in above manner but I told following lines:-

1- In weekly on 03-01-2011- "Last 2 sessions intraday charts are showing distribution signals therefore a minor/very short term correction is possible in the begining of week"

2- Pre-Open(04-01-2011)-
a-"Nifty will not sustain above 6178."
b-"yesterday intraday charts genuine selling patterns therefore slipping below 6154 will be seen"

3-Pre-Open(05-01-2011)- "As good selling at higher levels therefore slipping below 6128 possibility is high to test minimum 6080"

It is also true that I was expecting termination of correction and begining of fresh rally in the last of week but when I found that correction will remain continued therefore I told before 12 noon in Mid-session on 07-01-2011:-

"If Nifty sustains below 5988 then it will be down move confirmations therefore sustaining below 5988 will be watched for deciding next trend."

As per my view deep correction in last 2 sessions is the result of 'strongly bullish and buy on dips psychology' of general traders and to press them for panic selling as well as to covert most bullish sentiments into most bearish sentiments therefore Water fall patterns in last 2 sessions is showing consolidation:-

1- Water Fall Patterns in last 2 sessions intraday charts:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

There was no break,Nifty closed at 5996 and on the base of intraday consolidation patterns on 28-12-2010 I told following lines for that rally above 6000 which was seen immediately after my following posting in Pre-Open Outlook on 29-12-2010:-

"As per my view Indian markets are well prepared for upmoves and sustaining above 6040 will be confirmation of next rally. Expected that rally will begin today and nifty will cross as well as sustain above 6040 now"

2- Last 10 sessions intraday charts showing rally after 28-12-2010,4 sessions distribution pattern and last 2 sessions seeep fall:-

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Steep fall seen in last 2 sessions in which all the immediate supports and Weekly Pivot Supports(except support-3)also broken and for this I am presenting my following views:-

1- Panic bottom formation last Friday therefore it may be termination of last week down trend also.
2- As steep fall pattern is Water Fall and within it Falling Wedge pattern is also seen therefore reversal of last week down move is possible after these consolidation and reversal patterns.
3- Although I told for rally without any break on 29-12-2010 but not telling for down move after breaking down of so many levels and adding my following views:-

A- Upmove expected after above mentioned consolidation patterns.
B- Technically sustaining below is must for 3 sessions.
C- If Nifty sustainins below 6015 in next 2 sessions then fusing of rally will get confirmation otherwise Whipsaw(wrong signal) will be understood.
D- Next support is at 5865 and slipping below will be down move confirmation but I am not expecting its happening and my view is bullish due to following trading patterns.

3- Conclusions from EOD Chart:-

1 Wave 3 is on
2- Long term is up and Short term trend is down. Although Nifty moved below intermediate term levels but no confirmations yet.
3- No distribution pattern at present is last 4 months range bound moves
4- Pennant formation in last 2 months EOD chart. It is continuation of trend pattern. As on going trend is uptrend therefore Pennant is signalling continuation of uptrend.
5- All the rising trend lines are not breached therefore up trend is safe at present.

3-Bullish Formations in EOD Chart

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions from Weekly Chart:-

1- Pennant formation in last 9 weeks chart and it is confirming continuation of uptrend in weekly chart also.
2- All the rising trend lines are not breached in weekly charts also therefore up trend is safe at present.

4- Bullish Formations in Weekly Chart

(Just click on chart for its enlarged view)

Conclusions

No distribution pattern in weekly and daily chart and on the other hand above mentioned uptrend formations also. If selling at higher levels then last 2 sessions consolidation patterns also in steep fall. Panic is much due to rise in inflation last Thursday but Onion will not decide Indian economy and things will be ettle down in coming weeks. No reason for down move confimations and technically sustaining below 6015 is must in next 2 days for down move confirmation as well as Nifty slipping below 5865 will also be down move confirmation. Until it will not happen till then any down move will not be considered.

Short term correction had been due in the begining of week which finished in the last of week. 120 points panic down in last 3 hours last Friday and as per my view correction completed in this fall. As per my view Firstly bounce back and after that V-shaped recovery is possible in the coming sessions and fresh rally will be seen in the coming weeks. Positive weely closing expected in this week.