Indian markets moved up last Friday despite 3 previous sessions selling patterns( 5958-6024) on following bullish news:-
"Finance ministry fresh missive to the labour ministry for investment a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund in stock markets"
As mentioned up move was news based after ignoring selling formations therefore following lines were told for yesterday:-
"As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out"
As doubt was shown and same was seen yesterday. Indian markets slipped and closed within last week 3 selling sessions range at 5998 and last 26 sessions range bound move of 5690-6069 is still maintained. Selling patterns within 6020-6045 yesterday and selling was already seen in the last week therefore next trend confirmation first range is 5940-6045. Until fresh consolidation will not happen till then firstly 6045 and then 6069 will not cross to confirm decisive up trend. As selling patterns exists therefore down moves will be faster and sustaining above the top(6069) of last 26 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and up move"
Long term and short term trends are up and intermediate term is sideways for the last 26 sessions. As selling therefore firstly down move within last 5 sessions range(5940-60450) expected and also whole day trading within this range will be seen today. Although market is not sustaining beyond previous short term ranges but breaking out/down daily. As moved up was seen after breaking down last Friday and moved down after breaking out yesterday therefore technical positions changes sharply in such intraday volatile moves. Until market does not sustain beyond any crucial levels till then short term views within mentioned ranges should be maintained. Follwing ranges and levels should be watched for next immediate confirmations:-
1- For up move- Firstly closing above 6015 and then sustaining above 6069.
2- For up move- First break out range is 5940-6045
3- For down move- 1st break down range is 5960-6045
4- For down move- 2nd support at- 5870
5- For down move- 3rd support at- 5820
6- For down move- 4th support at- 5730
7- For down move- 5th support at- 5690
Firstly down move expected and then next moves will be decided according to break out/down and intraday charts formations.
As I have been busy therefore could not post Weekly of this week but above mentioned 7 levels and ranges will give direction in whole week.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Trading Levels for 28-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 28-12-10
R3 6087
R2 6066
R1 6032
AVG 6011
S1 5977
S2 5956
S3 5922
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10
R3 6104
R2 6083
R1 6047
AVG 6026
S1 5990
S2 5969
S3 5933
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10
R3 11670
R2 11620
R1 11550
AVG 11500
S1 11430
S2 11380
S3 11310
R3 6087
R2 6066
R1 6032
AVG 6011
S1 5977
S2 5956
S3 5922
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10
R3 6104
R2 6083
R1 6047
AVG 6026
S1 5990
S2 5969
S3 5933
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 28-12-10
R3 11670
R2 11620
R1 11550
AVG 11500
S1 11430
S2 11380
S3 11310
Market Outlook(27-12-2010)
Nifty traded most of the time within 5955-6024 in last week. Selling seen in 3 days and Indian markets surged sharp last Friday after following news in media and Economic times website:-
News at 11:40am on 24-12-2010 economictimes.com:-"The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets"
Link of the news is as follows:-
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms
As 3 days selling therefore Nifty firstly slipped,got support below 27% retracement level,almost tested and closed near the top of the week. As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and intermediate term trend turning upward. Mentioned last Friday news is strong and its coming into being will mean strong rally in Indian markets after generation of huge investible funds. Break out will mean decisive strong rally toward all time high after clearing following reistances:-
1- 6040-6070
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320(strong resistance)
News at 11:40am on 24-12-2010 economictimes.com:-"The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets"
Link of the news is as follows:-
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/finance-ministry-again-asks-labour-ministry-to-invest-part-of-epf-in-markets/articleshow/7153801.cms
As 3 days selling therefore Nifty firstly slipped,got support below 27% retracement level,almost tested and closed near the top of the week. As last Friday up move was on the back of positive news therefore sustaining above the top(6069) of last 25 sessions is must for confirmation of break out and intermediate term trend turning upward. Mentioned last Friday news is strong and its coming into being will mean strong rally in Indian markets after generation of huge investible funds. Break out will mean decisive strong rally toward all time high after clearing following reistances:-
1- 6040-6070
2- 6080-6120
3- 6180-6195
4- 6250-6320(strong resistance)
Trading Levels for 27-12-10 & Next Week
Nifty Spot Levels for 27-12-10
R3 6116
R2 6066
R1 6039
AVG 5989
S1 5962
S2 5912
S3 5885
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10
R3 6138
R2 6089
R1 6063
AVG 6014
S1 5988
S2 5939
S3 5913
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10
R3 11748
R2 11656
R1 11595
AVG 11503
S1 11442
S2 11350
S3 11289
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (27 Dec to 31 Dec 2010)
R3 6181
R2 6102
R1 6057
AVG 5978
S1 5933
S2 5854
S3 5809
R3 6116
R2 6066
R1 6039
AVG 5989
S1 5962
S2 5912
S3 5885
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10
R3 6138
R2 6089
R1 6063
AVG 6014
S1 5988
S2 5939
S3 5913
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 27-12-10
R3 11748
R2 11656
R1 11595
AVG 11503
S1 11442
S2 11350
S3 11289
Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (27 Dec to 31 Dec 2010)
R3 6181
R2 6102
R1 6057
AVG 5978
S1 5933
S2 5854
S3 5809
Rs 5 lakh crore Corpus Investment in Stock Markets News triggered Sharp Rally Today
The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.
Sharp surge in Indian markets was due to above news today
Full news with link of this news is posted below.
Sharp surge in Indian markets was due to above news today
Full news with link of this news is posted below.
Finance Ministry again asks labour ministry to invest part of EPF in markets
NEW DELHI: The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.
In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.
“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.
The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.
The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.
Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.
The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.
The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.
The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.
The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.
Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said.
In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.
“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.
The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.
The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.
Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.
The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.
The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.
The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.
The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.
Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said.
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED ON 23-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY(WE MAY SHORT AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)-CMP-6010
Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-12-2010)
Long term and short term trends are up. Intermediate term trend is side ways for the last 24 sessions within 5690-6069. Nifty is trading near the top of range for the last 3 days within 5958-6024. Crossing of 6024 will mean begining of fresh rally towards all time high after completion of intermediate term correction and drifting below 5958 will mean continuation of 24 sessions range bound corrective markets.
1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-
Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.
2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-
As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-
23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733
Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.
1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-
Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.
2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-
As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-
23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733
Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.
Trading Levels for 24-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334
R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-TRADE
NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995
Mid-Session Outlook-2(23-12-2010)
Narrow range market with intraday consolidation indications in Indices and many Pivotals stocks therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations. As last 3 sessions intraday patterns showed selling also therefore first indication will be dran from today range break out and next bigger move confirmation will come from yesterday wider range break out(5958-6023)
Mid-Session Outlook(23-12-2010)
Completely narrow range market today and Intraday support seems at lower levels also therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. Although confirmation required but Nifty intraday chart is indicating Inverse Head & Shoulder(Bullish) formation today.
NIFTY-DEC FUT-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC F & O(STBT-SHORTED ON 22-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5991
Fresh Down Move Triggered
Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-12-2010)
Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-
1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2- until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.
I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.
Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-
Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-
1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified
As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.
1- 3 days intraday chart:-
Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.
Following supports testing expected now:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.
Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-
1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2- until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.
I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.
Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-
Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-
1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified
As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.
1- 3 days intraday chart:-
Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.
Following supports testing expected now:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.
Trading Levels for 23-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67
R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-TRADE
NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000
Post-Open Outlook(22-12-2010)
Nifty trading above 6015 after Asian markets led positive cues today morning. If Nifty sustains above 6015 today then it will be rally confirmation therefore should be watched for trend confirmations.
Trading Levels for 22-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115
R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115
Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-12-2010)
Strong Asian markets triggered break out(5950-5985) and Nifty traded most of the time and closed above it yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions therefore until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only. As very short term moves remain news generated sentiments also therefore mentioned confirmation is required because yesterday up move are not supported by intraday consolidation patterns.
All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.
Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.
All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.
Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.
Post-Open Outlook(21-12-2010)
Posiitive market today after strong Asian cues today morning. Now trading in the upper band(5950-5985) of yesterday range. As selling was seen in this range therefore fresh consolidation is required to cross it and follow up selling within mentioned range will mean begining of very short term down moves.
Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.
Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.
Trading Levels for 21-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10
R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038
R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038
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