The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.
Sharp surge in Indian markets was due to above news today
Full news with link of this news is posted below.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Finance Ministry again asks labour ministry to invest part of EPF in markets
NEW DELHI: The finance ministry has shot off a fresh missive to the labour ministry asking it to invest a part of the Rs 5 lakh crore corpus of the employees’ provident fund savings in stock markets.
In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.
“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.
The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.
The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.
Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.
The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.
The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.
The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.
The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.
Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said.
In a recent letter, North Block has categorically ruled out providing any guarantee on returns on such investments, but said safeguards could be built to minimise risks and maximise gains for subscribers.
“The finance ministry’s refusal to guarantee returns continues to worry us, but we are willing to look at the suggestions made,” a labour ministry official told ET. The official did not reveal the details of the investment pattern suggested by North Block.
The finance ministry had earlier proposed that the EPF organisation could set aside 15% of funds for investments in the stock market and need not seek a nod from the Central Board of Trustees, or CBT, the policymaking body of the employees’ provident fund organisation, or EPFO.
The labour ministry is, however, clear that it cannot decide on the issue unilaterally, sidestepping the Central Board of Trustees. The EPFO, which manages the provident fund savings of approximately 4.7 crore organised sector workers, has steadfastly declined to invest provident fund accumulations in equities.
Following a decision by the trustees, Labour Secretary PC Chaturvedi had written to the finance ministry that it would be willing to do so, if the finance ministry guaranteed safety of investments and assured some minimum return on such investments. “We will place the suggestions made by the finance ministry before the CBT, which will take a final call on the matter,” the official said.
The EPFO has been giving 8.5% return on funds annually since 2005-06, which rose to 9.5% this year after it disbursed some unaccounted money in the fund. The fund has a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, and private trustees, which follow the fund’s investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.
The finance ministry has argued investing a portion of the Rs 5 lakh crore EPF corpus in stocks would help the fund generate higher returns than the government-backed securities that the fund currently invests in. North Block had pointed out that the new pension scheme, or NPS, which invested part of the money in stock markets, earned a much higher 14.5% return last year.
The EPFO has reasoned that it cannot invest in equities because it is required to generate and credit income to account balances every year.
The labour ministry also argued that both schemes cannot be compared as NPS keeps money till retirement while employees are allowed to withdraw money from provident fund for various purposes like education, marriage, etc.
“These are real payouts we have to make. Roughly about Rs 20,000 crore is paid out every year to almost 60-80 lakh people,” the official said.
Dhirendra Kumar of Value Research does not buy the logic. “It is more risky not to invest in equities because returns on government-backed securities could go down to very low levels and it would be more difficult for the EPFO to explain a lower, say a 5.5%, return,” he said.
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC F & O(SHORTED ON 23-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY(WE MAY SHORT AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)-CMP-6010
Pre-Open Market Outlook(24-12-2010)
Long term and short term trends are up. Intermediate term trend is side ways for the last 24 sessions within 5690-6069. Nifty is trading near the top of range for the last 3 days within 5958-6024. Crossing of 6024 will mean begining of fresh rally towards all time high after completion of intermediate term correction and drifting below 5958 will mean continuation of 24 sessions range bound corrective markets.
1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-
Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.
2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-
As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-
23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733
Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.
1- 24 Sessions EOD Chart:-
Last 3 sessions range bound market(5958-6024) break out will decide next big moves of Indian markets and only intraday charts formations of last 3 days will decide side of market.
2- 3 Days Intraday Chart:-
As per my view last 3 sessions intraday charts are suggesting selling formations and breaking down expected to test following fibonacci retracement levels:-
23.6%- 5979
27.0%- 5966
38.2%- 5924
50.0%- 5880
61.8%- 5834
70.7%- 5801
76.4%- 5779
88.6%- 5733
Opening will depend on Global cues but finally begining of down move expected to test above mentioned levels.
Trading Levels for 24-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334
R3 6043
R2 6024
R1 6002
AVG 5983
S1 5961
S2 5942
S3 5920
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 6042
R2 6027
R1 6011
AVG 5996
S1 5980
S2 5965
S3 5949
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 24-12-10
R3 11682
R2 11625
R1 11566
AVG 11509
S1 11450
S2 11393
S3 11334
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 23-12-2010-TRADE
NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-5995
Mid-Session Outlook-2(23-12-2010)
Narrow range market with intraday consolidation indications in Indices and many Pivotals stocks therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be kept in mind for next immediate moves confirmations. As last 3 sessions intraday patterns showed selling also therefore first indication will be dran from today range break out and next bigger move confirmation will come from yesterday wider range break out(5958-6023)
Mid-Session Outlook(23-12-2010)
Completely narrow range market today and Intraday support seems at lower levels also therefore today intraday range(5980-5995) will be watched for next immediate moves confirmations. Although confirmation required but Nifty intraday chart is indicating Inverse Head & Shoulder(Bullish) formation today.
NIFTY-DEC FUT-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-COVERING
NIFTY DEC F & O(STBT-SHORTED ON 22-12-2010)-COVER IMMEDIATELY-CMP-5991
Fresh Down Move Triggered
Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-12-2010)
Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-
1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2- until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.
I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.
Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-
Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-
1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified
As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.
1- 3 days intraday chart:-
Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.
Following supports testing expected now:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.
Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-
1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2- until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.
I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.
Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-
Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-
1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified
As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.
1- 3 days intraday chart:-
Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.
Following supports testing expected now:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.
Trading Levels for 23-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67
R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10
R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67
NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-TRADE
NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000
Post-Open Outlook(22-12-2010)
Nifty trading above 6015 after Asian markets led positive cues today morning. If Nifty sustains above 6015 today then it will be rally confirmation therefore should be watched for trend confirmations.
Trading Levels for 22-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115
R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10
R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115
Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-12-2010)
Strong Asian markets triggered break out(5950-5985) and Nifty traded most of the time and closed above it yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions therefore until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only. As very short term moves remain news generated sentiments also therefore mentioned confirmation is required because yesterday up move are not supported by intraday consolidation patterns.
All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.
Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.
All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.
Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.
Post-Open Outlook(21-12-2010)
Posiitive market today after strong Asian cues today morning. Now trading in the upper band(5950-5985) of yesterday range. As selling was seen in this range therefore fresh consolidation is required to cross it and follow up selling within mentioned range will mean begining of very short term down moves.
Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.
Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.
Trading Levels for 21-12-10
Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10
R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038
R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818
Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806
Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10
R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038
Indian Stock Markets Detailed Research for coming weeks/months
Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-12-2010)
Only 16 points trend decider trading range(5940-5956) was given in weekly,Nifty could not broke out mentioned small range in 84 points volatile market and closed flat exactly within it at 5947 yesterday. Following lines were also told yesterday and being repeated today for deciding that big move which is expected after sustaining beyond 5940-5956:-
1- Indian markets are riped for up moves.
2- until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940
As Indian markets were riped for up moves therefore up moves were seen immediate after opening yesterday despite weaker global cues. Down moves were not seen in the begining because complete selling was required and were seen after complete selling at higher levels yesterday.
Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday and repeating today:-
"Intraday charts are suggesting selling at higher levels but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940"
Dissection of intraday patterns of last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) for deciding next moves and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves:-
1- 5855-5890(intraday buying on 16-12-2010)
2- 5940-5956(intraday selling on 16-12-2010)
3- 5960-5985(intraday selling on 20-12-2010)
Indian markets are flat,not trending and side ways points have already been discussed in weekly and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are also showing same patterns through lower level buying and higher level selling.
Markets takes its own time for taking positions and preperations and same is being happened for the last 21 sessions. Multiple supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels also. Indian markets will prepare for next moves and crossing of next supports/resistances will decide next direction. Following supports and resistances of last 21 sessions should be kept in mind for finding next move target. Base range is 5940-5956 and next moves will be decided from sustaining sustaining beyond:-
Sustaining below 5940 will mean testing of following supports:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385.
Sustaining above 5956 will mean testing of following Resistances:-
1- 5960-5985
2- 5970-6015
3- 6040-6070
Sustaining above 6070 will mean testing of follwong next resistances:-
4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320(strong resistance)
Sustaing above 6320 will mean continuation of `Wave 3 towards new highs of Indian markets. Correction is on and only its completion has to be decided. Let market start to sustain above or below mentioned levels and accoring to that correction completion will be decided.
Firstly get confirmation from breaking out of 5940-5956 but it is small 16 points range and next big move will be cooked within last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves.
Indian markets will move according to above mentioned levels in the coming weeks/months therefore should be kept in mind.
Only 16 points trend decider trading range(5940-5956) was given in weekly,Nifty could not broke out mentioned small range in 84 points volatile market and closed flat exactly within it at 5947 yesterday. Following lines were also told yesterday and being repeated today for deciding that big move which is expected after sustaining beyond 5940-5956:-
1- Indian markets are riped for up moves.
2- until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
3- complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940
As Indian markets were riped for up moves therefore up moves were seen immediate after opening yesterday despite weaker global cues. Down moves were not seen in the begining because complete selling was required and were seen after complete selling at higher levels yesterday.
Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday and repeating today:-
"Intraday charts are suggesting selling at higher levels but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940"
Dissection of intraday patterns of last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) for deciding next moves and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves:-
1- 5855-5890(intraday buying on 16-12-2010)
2- 5940-5956(intraday selling on 16-12-2010)
3- 5960-5985(intraday selling on 20-12-2010)
Indian markets are flat,not trending and side ways points have already been discussed in weekly and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are also showing same patterns through lower level buying and higher level selling.
Markets takes its own time for taking positions and preperations and same is being happened for the last 21 sessions. Multiple supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels also. Indian markets will prepare for next moves and crossing of next supports/resistances will decide next direction. Following supports and resistances of last 21 sessions should be kept in mind for finding next move target. Base range is 5940-5956 and next moves will be decided from sustaining sustaining beyond:-
Sustaining below 5940 will mean testing of following supports:-
1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775
Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385.
Sustaining above 5956 will mean testing of following Resistances:-
1- 5960-5985
2- 5970-6015
3- 6040-6070
Sustaining above 6070 will mean testing of follwong next resistances:-
4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320(strong resistance)
Sustaing above 6320 will mean continuation of `Wave 3 towards new highs of Indian markets. Correction is on and only its completion has to be decided. Let market start to sustain above or below mentioned levels and accoring to that correction completion will be decided.
Firstly get confirmation from breaking out of 5940-5956 but it is small 16 points range and next big move will be cooked within last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves.
Indian markets will move according to above mentioned levels in the coming weeks/months therefore should be kept in mind.
Mid-Session Outlook(20-12-2010)
Following range was given for trend confirmation and nifty is hovering around it since opening today:-
"Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"
Nifty opened and traded firstly below 5940 but could not sustained and recovered after 2 hours and trading above 5956. Intraday charts are suggesting selling patterns but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940.
Just watch mentioned range tomorrow and it will be safer to trade according to sustaining above or below 5940-5956.
"Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"
Nifty opened and traded firstly below 5940 but could not sustained and recovered after 2 hours and trading above 5956. Intraday charts are suggesting selling patterns but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940.
Just watch mentioned range tomorrow and it will be safer to trade according to sustaining above or below 5940-5956.
Post-Open Outlook(20-12-2010)
It was told in weekly for last 40 minutes intraday trading of previous thursday:-
1- "last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications"
2- "Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"
Nifty opened and trading weak below 5940 after negative news from Asian markets and specially from Shanghai markets. As today weakness is news based therefore fresh selling patterns are must for sustaining below 5940. Although short covering(selling) indication seen in last 40 minutes of previous Thursday but big down moves can not be projected from only 40 minutes intraday moves and complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940 and that will be decided after minimum 3/4 hours trading today. Let market prepare then will be decided firstly from intraday patterns and finally from sustaining beyond mentioned range.
1- "last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications"
2- "Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"
Nifty opened and trading weak below 5940 after negative news from Asian markets and specially from Shanghai markets. As today weakness is news based therefore fresh selling patterns are must for sustaining below 5940. Although short covering(selling) indication seen in last 40 minutes of previous Thursday but big down moves can not be projected from only 40 minutes intraday moves and complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940 and that will be decided after minimum 3/4 hours trading today. Let market prepare then will be decided firstly from intraday patterns and finally from sustaining beyond mentioned range.
16 Points Range(5940-5956) Break Out is Next Trend Decider
Weekly Analysis- 20-12-2010 to 24-12-2010
Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-
1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.
Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-
1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385
1-Bollinger Band Chart:-
2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-
3-Flat Averags Chart:-
4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-
Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves
Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-
1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.
Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.
Conclusions
Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-
1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.
Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.
Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-
1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.
Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-
1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385
1-Bollinger Band Chart:-
2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-
3-Flat Averags Chart:-
4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-
Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves
Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-
1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.
Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.
Conclusions
Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-
1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.
Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.
Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.
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