Fresh Down Move Triggered

Pre-Open Market Outlook(23-12-2010)


Indian maekets closed positive on 21-12-2010 but I did not posted bullish views but projected bearish views in following words yesterday:-

1- intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions
2-  until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only.

I told for distribution on 21-12-2010 and Nifty dipped below its lowest within half hour forceful down move yesterday. Bearish views were given amid bullish global sentiments because intraday charts were suggesting weakness.

Last 3 days intraday charts analysis:-

Half Hour Down Move of 22-12-2010 nullified following intraday up moves:-

1- 4 hours move of 22-12-2010 nullified
2- Whole day move of 21-12-2010 nullified
3- 2 hours higher band move of 20-12-2010 nullified

As intraday selling therefore mentioned up moves neutralised within half hour down moves.

1- 3 days intraday chart:-

Nifty traded with intraday genuine selling patterns within 6004-6023 yesterday and previous session intraday selling has also been shown above. Strong resistance was already at 6015 and it has  strenghtened yesterday after genuine selling surrounding it therefore 10th Dec started upmove terminated and Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5690-6069. Double top and double bottom at the both sides of this range and fresh consolidation/distribution in the coming weeks will decide the side of break out. Let market prepare then break out side will be decied accordingly.

Following supports testing expected now:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Yesterday begun weakness will be seen today and in the coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 23-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6084.33
R2 6053.67
R1 6019.33
AVG 5988.67
S1 5954.33
S2 5923.67
S3 5889.33

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 6102.33
R2 6072.67
R1 6036.33
AVG 6006.67
S1 5970.33
S2 5940.67
S3 5904.33

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 23-12-10

R3 11887.67
R2 11783.33
R1 11643.67
AVG 11539.33
S1 11399.67
S2 11295.33
S3 11155.67

NIFTY-DEC F&O-1ST SELLING TRADE OF 22-12-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(DEC FUT-SELL-STBT)SL-6036-TGT-5924-CMP-6000
NIFTY(DEC PUT OPTION-BUY-STBT)-S.P.FOR PUT-5900,6000-NIFTY(DEC FUT)-RATES ARE FOR-SL-6036-TGT-5924 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6000

Post-Open Outlook(22-12-2010)

Nifty trading above 6015 after Asian markets led positive cues today morning. If Nifty sustains above 6015 today then it will be rally confirmation therefore should be watched for trend confirmations.

Trading Levels for 22-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6065
R2 6036
R1 6018
AVG 5989
S1 5971
S2 5942
S3 5924

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 6082
R2 6052
R1 6031
AVG 6001
S1 5980
S2 5950
S3 5929

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 22-12-10

R3 11967
R2 11790
R1 11683
AVG 11506
S1 11399
S2 11222
S3 11115

Pre-Open Market Outlook(22-12-2010)

Strong Asian markets triggered break out(5950-5985) and Nifty traded most of the time and closed above it yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations but distribution signals seen in last 2 sessions therefore until crucial resistance(6015) will not be broken out and Nifty will not sustain above it till then rally will not get confirmation and yesterday upmove will be considered on the back of strong global cues only. As very short term moves remain news generated sentiments also therefore mentioned confirmation is required because yesterday up move are not supported by intraday consolidation patterns.

All the global markets closed with good gains yesterday and US markets are also trading 1/2% up at this moment therefore bullish sentiment is maintained and Nifty will hover around 6000 today in the begining. 5985-6015 is next move confirmation range. Nifty above 6015 will mean fresh rally after correction completion and below 5985 will mean maintaining of range bound markets.

Let market open then will be informed accordingly as was done in Post-open outlook within first half hour yesterday.

Post-Open Outlook(21-12-2010)

Posiitive market today after strong Asian cues today morning. Now trading in the upper band(5950-5985) of yesterday range. As selling was seen in this range therefore fresh consolidation is required to cross it and follow up selling within mentioned range will mean begining of very short term down moves.

Sustaining beyond or froceful break out of 5950-5985 will give next very short term move confirmations.

Trading Levels for 21-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6073
R2 6029
R1 5988
AVG 5944
S1 5903
S2 5859
S3 5818

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 6106
R2 6053
R1 6006
AVG 5953
S1 5906
S2 5853
S3 5806

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 21-12-10

R3 11590
R2 11517
R1 11406
AVG 11333
S1 11222
S2 11149
S3 11038

Indian Stock Markets Detailed Research for coming weeks/months

Pre-Open Market Outlook(21-12-2010)

Only 16 points trend decider trading range(5940-5956) was given in weekly,Nifty could not broke out mentioned small range in 84 points volatile market and closed flat exactly within it at 5947 yesterday. Following lines were also told yesterday and being repeated today for deciding that big move which is expected after sustaining beyond 5940-5956:-

1- Indian markets are riped for up moves.

2- until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

3- complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940

As Indian markets were riped for up moves therefore up moves were seen immediate after opening yesterday despite weaker global cues. Down moves were not seen in the begining because complete selling was required and were seen after complete selling at higher levels yesterday.

Following lines were told in Mid-session outlook yesterday and repeating today:-

"Intraday charts are suggesting selling at higher levels but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940"

Dissection of intraday patterns of last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) for deciding next moves and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves:-

1- 5855-5890(intraday buying on 16-12-2010)
2- 5940-5956(intraday selling on 16-12-2010)
3- 5960-5985(intraday selling on 20-12-2010)

Indian markets are flat,not trending and side ways points have already been discussed in weekly and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are also showing same patterns through lower level buying and higher level selling.

Markets takes its own time for taking positions and preperations and same is being happened for the last 21 sessions. Multiple supports at lower levels and multiple resistances at higher levels also. Indian markets will prepare for next moves and crossing of next supports/resistances will decide next direction. Following supports and resistances of last 21 sessions should be kept in mind for finding next move target. Base range is 5940-5956 and next moves will be decided from sustaining sustaining beyond:-

Sustaining below 5940 will mean testing of following supports:-

1- 5855-5890
2- 5785-5820
3- 5745-5775

Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385.

Sustaining above 5956 will mean testing of following Resistances:-

1- 5960-5985
2- 5970-6015
3- 6040-6070

Sustaining above 6070 will mean testing of follwong next resistances:-

4- 6080-6120
5- 6180-6195
6- 6250-6320(strong resistance)

Sustaing above 6320 will mean continuation of `Wave 3 towards new highs of Indian markets. Correction is on and only its completion has to be decided. Let market start to sustain above or below mentioned levels and accoring to that correction completion will be decided.

Firstly get confirmation from breaking out of 5940-5956 but it is small 16 points range and next big move will be cooked within last 2 days trading range(5855-5985) and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong confirmation of next strong big moves.

Indian markets will move according to above mentioned levels in the coming weeks/months therefore should be kept in mind.

Mid-Session Outlook(20-12-2010)

Following range was given for trend confirmation and nifty is hovering around it since opening today:-

"Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and traded firstly below 5940 but could not sustained and recovered after 2 hours and trading above 5956. Intraday charts are suggesting selling patterns but confirmation is must through sustaining below 5940.

Just watch mentioned range tomorrow and it will be safer to trade according to sustaining above or below 5940-5956.

Post-Open Outlook(20-12-2010)

It was told in weekly for last 40 minutes intraday trading of previous thursday:-

1- "last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications"
2- "Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956"

Nifty opened and trading weak below 5940 after negative news from Asian markets and specially from Shanghai markets. As today weakness is news based therefore fresh selling patterns are must for sustaining below 5940. Although short covering(selling) indication seen in last 40 minutes of previous Thursday but big down moves can not be projected from only 40 minutes intraday moves and complete fresh intraday selling required today for sustaining below 5940 and that will be decided after minimum 3/4 hours trading today. Let market prepare then will be decided firstly from intraday patterns and finally from sustaining beyond mentioned range.

16 Points Range(5940-5956) Break Out is Next Trend Decider

Weekly Analysis- 20-12-2010 to 24-12-2010

Long term and short term are up. Intermediate term trend(5932) is sideways for the last 20 sessions. Following points are also suggesting that Indian markets are flat and not trending:-

1- Nifty is at the middle of Bollinger Band.
2- 8,21 and 55 Day EMA are moving flat within 5910-5945.
3- Nifty trading a little below the middle point of last 75 sessions.

Last 3 sessions are range bound within 5855-5956 and its break out will give following moves:-

1- Sustaining above 5956 will mean immediate testing of next strong resistance 5970-6015. Sustaing above 6015 will mean strong rally.
2- Sustaining below 5855 will mean tesing of following ranges:-
a- 5785-5820
b- 5745-5775
3- Sustaining below 5745 will mean further fast down move confirmation of 'C' corrective wave to test 5385

1-Bollinger Band Chart:-

2-Symmetrical Triangle Formation Chart:-

3-Flat Averags Chart:-

4- Last 3 days Intraday Chart:-

Analysis of last 3 sessions range bound move to decide next moves

Break out implications of last 3 sessions range(5855-5956) has been discussed above and its dissection is as follows to decide break out direction:-

1- 1st day-Nifty traded within 5880-5940 with selling at higher levels.
2- 2nd day-Nifty traded within 5870-5940 with intraday consolidation patterns.
3- 3rd day-Sentiment completely depressed due to fear of DMK withdrawing support news from Union Govt. during trading hours or in next 3 days of holidays. Last 2 range broken both sides,firstly lower to 5855 and then at higher side to 5956.
4- 3rd day intraday analysis- Firstly intraday support within 5855-5890 and then last 40 minutes trading within 5940-5956 with short covering(selling) indications.

Indian markets got support at lower levels in most depressed sentiment last Thursday and closd near day's higher levels. As last 40 minutes intraday charts are signalling selling therefore sustaining above 5956 confirmation is must for that rally about which has been mentioned above.

Conclusions

Intermediate term trend is undecided in last 20 sessions, 2 times it has turned down and also turned up 2 times. Let it find decisive direction through breaking out trend deciding following crucial levels then sustains moves toward that side:-

1- Sustaining above 6015 will be up trend confirmation.
2- sustaining below 5690 will be down trend confirmation.

Last Thursday sharp up moves in most depressed sentiment is strong indication of decisive up moves and if Nifty sustains above 5956 in the begining of week then that will be correction completion confirmation. Indian markets are riped for up moves after last Thursday sharp surge and until Nifty will not sustain below 5940 after complete intraday selling patterns till then any down move will not be considered.

Watch only sustaining above or below 5940-5956 and enjoy whole weeek move towards that side.

Trading Levels for 20-12-10 & Next Week

Nifty Spot Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6087
R2 6022
R1 5987
AVG 5920
S1 5885
S2 58120
S3 5785

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 6126
R2 6050
R1 6007
AVG 5936
S1 5895
S2 5822
S3 5770

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 20-12-10

R3 11990
R2 11774
R1 11620
AVG 11401
S1 11254
S2 11030
S3 10883

Nifty Spot Weekly Levels (20 Dec to 24 Dec 2010)

R3 6165
R2 6062
R1 6005
AVG 5900
S1 5845
S2 5742
S3 5685

Post-Open Outlook(16-12-2010)

Positive opening despite weaker global cues on expected lines because yesterday intraday charts consolidation patterns and RBI Credit policy will give final cues but selling on the back of positive credit policy can not be ruled out today. Cautious approach required because weakness expected in US markets in coming sessions.

Trading Levels for 16-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6010
R2 5979
R1 5935
AVG 5900
S1 5855
S2 5824
S3 5782

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 6025
R2 5988
R1 5944
AVG 5907
S1 5861
S2 5826
S3 5777

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 16-12-10

R3 11934
R2 11775
R1 11494
AVG 11336
S1 11058
S2 10896
S3 10614

Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-12-2010)

Down moves were expected yesterday therefore such moves were projected and seen also but intraday charts showed consolidations therefore following lines were told before 02:00 pm yesterday:-

1- intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today
2- intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today

As intraday patterns showed consolidation within 5870-5940 yesterday therefore sustaining below is must for any down move confirmation and if Nifty does not sustain below 5870 and cross 5940 then fresh strong up moves will be seen. Selling in previous sessions and buying yesterday are suggesting to get confirmations from break out of 5870-5940.

Last 14 sessions EOD chart is showing symmetrical triangle and it is continuation pattern. Break out of this pattern should be watched for next strong and decisive move confirmations.

1- Symmetrical Triangle (Continuation Pattern) Chart:-

Following news will also be crucial therefore should be kept in mind.

1- Credit policy today and any type of rates hike not expected. Banks facing liquidity problem and CRR cut can not be ruled out today after decline of inflation and encouraging IIP,GDP data.

2- DMK may withdraw support after CBI raids but in that situation there will be no danger to Union Govt because required 9 MPs support will be easily managed(AIADMK & SP) by Congress and no impact on Govt stability will be seen. As Stock markets moves on sentiments therefore in this situation panic selling and bottom possibility can not be ruled out therefore caution required. If supports withdrawl news comes during trading hours then it may cause panic therefore trading long positions should be held with stop loss in system. It is also very much expected that market will bounce back after any panic because Govt will survive finally and supports arrangements would have been done before CBI raids. As it may happen therefore should be kept in mind.

Mixed intraday formations in last 2 sessions and above mentioned news flow will also influence market today therefore today intraday formations will tell first for preperation of next moves and sustaing beyond after break out(5870-5940) will give next moves confirmations. Above shown Symmetrical Triangle break out will confirm next big move.

Today may be high volatile day therefore cautious approach required.

Mid-Session Outlook-3(15-12-2010)

Most Asian markets closed flat to negative,European markets also opened in Red today and Indian markets are also trading weak within 5880-5940. Although Indian market is weak since morning today but intraday trading patterns are not showing selling today therefore down movw confirmation point is dipping below 5880. As intraday patterns are showing consolidation formations today therefore moving above 5940 will be fresh up move confirmation.

I posted my bearish view in Pre-Open Outlook for today and Indian markets are trading in Red since opening today but intraday patterns are suggesting above mentioned conclusions therefore final view will be formed according to break out of today trading range(5880-5940) because intraday trading patterns did not showed follow up selling today.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(15-12-2010)

Selling seen today between 5930-5940 also.

Mid-Session Outlook(15-12-2010)

Minor intraday support seen between 5900-5915.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-12-2010)

Decline in inflations triggered up move and positive markets seen yesterday but intraday patterns are not suggesting consolidations and intraday patterns suggesting distribution also. Next resistance range is 5970-6015 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive rally will not be seen.

Nifty rallied 233 points in last 3 sessions with intraday selling formations and expected that Nifty will not sustain above 6015 in on going rally despite closing near day's high yesterday. Opening will depend on global cues today but finally down moves toward last 3 sessions lows expected in the coming sessions and fresh down moves will be seen either from today or tomorrow.

Trading Levels for 15-12-10

Nifty Spot Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6033
R2 5995
R1 5967
AVG 5929
S1 5905
S2 5865
S3 5838

Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 6049
R2 6008
R1 5985
AVG 5945
S1 5922
S2 5880
S3 5857

Bank Nifty Dec Futures Levels for 15-12-10

R3 11915
R2 11796
R1 11707
AVG 11589
S1 11505
S2 11385
S3 11296