Long term trend is up. Intermediate term and short term trends are down in on going correction. Last 2 sessions intraday moves were gripped by the fear phycology of IB report on stock market scams. Report not disclosed and only SEBI chief statement came out that investors should not worry.
Indian markets recovered from day's lows on the back of good double digit IIP data last Friday after forming higher bottom support at rising trend line.
1-Higher Bottom Support at Rising Trend Line Chart-
As this up move was on the back of good IIP data therefore it may be short covering rally also and confirmations required. Nifty traded last 5 hours within 5800-5850 last Friday with distribution signals and 5850-5900 is next resistance. Market has to undergo a complete process for begining of rally,let it happen then up move possibilities will be considered. Until Nifty will not sustain above 5900 till then any sustained rally will not be seen.
Indian markts retraced after good selling at higher levels and 26-11-2010 started pull back also could not cross resistance at 6015 as well as slipped sharply in last week after 4 days narrow range moves. As correction is on therefore following possibilities will be kept in mind:-
1- Intermediate term trend is down in on going correction and its character is testing of 200 Day EMA(today at 5564)
2- ABC correction is on. A & B waves have been completed and C wave is on. Its calculation is as follows:-
A- 6339-5690= 649 points down
B- 5690 to 6034 and then correction restarted after 4 days range bound move.
C- 6034-649(100% of A)=5385(Expected target of C)
2-ABC correction showing daily Chart:-
Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-
Rally terminated at 6339 and will correct whole rally which started from 5349 on 31-08-2010. On going 990 points rally will correct according to following Fibonacci Retracement Levels:-
13.0%- 6210
23.6%- 6105
27.0%- 6071
38.2%- 5960
50.0%- 5844
61.8%- 5727
70.7%- 5639
76.4%- 5582
78.6%- 5560
88.6%- 5461
3-Fibonacci Retracement Levels Chart-
Conclusions
Last 2 sessions down and up moves were based on news. Markets tanked down after announcement of Home ministery probe order on IB report leakage last Thursday and surged after good IIP data last Friday. These 2 days news based intraday moves were within 4735-4870 and lot of sentiments based high activities seen within this range. Next moves confirmations required in the begining of week:-
1- 5850-5900 is next resistance range and fresh consolidation requires for sustaining above 5900 and if Indian markets consolidate in the begining of week and Nifty sustains above 5900 then only next upmove will be considered. It should be kept in mind that 6015 is strong reistance decisive rally will be confirmed after sustaining above it only.
2- As last Friday surge was good IIP data fuelled therefore short covering possibility within last 5 hours trading range( 5800-5850)of last Friday can not be ruled out and sustaining beyond this range will be first strong indication of next moves. If Nifty finally sustains below 5800 then above mentioned ABC correction acoording to mentioned fibonacci retracement levels will be seen.
Indian markets will first prepare for next moves within 5800-5900 and then next moves will be seen according to above mentioned targets. Indian markets will first prepare within mentioned range and then next moves will be understood:-
1- Firstly from intraday trading patterns.
2- Secondly after breaking out of 5800-5900.
As pull back rally fused in last week after 4 days narrow range moves near 6000 and that complete consolidations requires for any up moves which has not started yet as well as selling patterns in Indices and many pivotal stocks therefore finally down moves below 5800 expected in the coming week but precautionally confirmations will also be taken from above mentions ways.
