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Mid-Session Outlook-2(16-11-2010)

I told following lines within 2 hours today:-

"intraday charts are showining weakness therefore further down move expectations turns higher."


Nifty moved more than 100 points down within 40 minutes after my above posting at 11:08 am.

Market is weak.No bottom fishing and long positions only after consolidation confirmations.

Mid-Session Outlook(16-11-2010)

Although firstly positive zone trading was expected but weak US futures and Asian markets led Indian markets to trade in negative zone first. Today almost first 2 hours intraday charts are showining weakness therefore further down move expectations turns higher.

Post-Open Outlook(16-11-2010)

Dow's futures trading 50 points down.Weak opening and sustaining beyond 6100 will give next move confirmations.

Range Bound Market within 6100-6260

Pre-Open Market Outlook(16-10-2010)

I told in weekly on 14-10-2010:-"Only minor pull back rally possibility in the begining of week"

I told in Pre-Open Outlook(15-10-2010):- "minor pull back rally possibility can not be ruled out"

I told within 3 hours in Mid-session outlook(15-10-2010):-"minor pull back rally possibility emerged today"

Following 2 supports were told in this week weekly:-

1- 1st Support- 6033-6057(Last Gap)
2- 2nd Support- 5932-6000(Strong support range)

Nifty got support within gap at 6039 yesterday above last strong support range and this gap has strengthened last support range.  Nifty got support 3 times within this range previously and got support above it yesterday therefore mentioned 2nd Support has become stronger.Now strong support range is 5932-6100.Good selling at higher levels therefore strong resistance range is 6260-6315

Indian market is trapped by strong supports and resistances and wil prepare for decisive moves within 6100-6260 in the minimum next couple of sessions. Markets always takes its own time for taking positions and let it prepare then next moves will be decided and also will be posted in the Mid-session outlooks as posted yesterday within first 3 hours before the begining of pull back rally.

As long and intermediate term trends are up therefore coming couple of sessions consolidations will mean rally arter completion of range bound correction(5937-6339). Selling will mean breaking down possibility of 5932 and it is only saviour otherwise deeper correction will be seen.

Opening will be decided by global sentiments but positive zone trading expected firstly and finally flat to positive closing also expected today.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(15-11-2010)

following support was mentioned in Weekly yesterday:-

1:- 1st Support- 6033-6057(Last Gap)

Nifty got support within this range at 6039 today. Today intraday patterns are showing consolidations and I told for it at 11:56 am today. Indian markets consolidated whole day today and recovered from intraday lows despite weak European markets and US futures. As consolidations today therefore repeating morning told line:-

"minor pull back rally possibility emerged today"

Mid-Session Outlook(15-11-2010)

Intraday patterns of today are suggesting consolidations therefore minor pull back rally possibility emerged today.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(15-11-2010)

US markets were down last Friday but Asian markets are flat today morning therefore sentiment is quiet. As last 2 sessions trading pattern is fountain and it is fountain consolidation formation therefore minor pull back rally possibility can not be ruled out. If Nifty sustains above 6100 today then minor pull back rally will be considered. Today first session intraday charts and sustaining above or below 6100 will decide pull back rally or continuation of ongoing last week down trend.

Market not prepared for any side move and will first prepare for next moves in first session today. Sustaining beyond 6100 should be used for next above mentioned moves confirmations.

High Possibility of Intermediate Trend Turning Down & Only Saviour is 5932

Weekly Analysis- 15-11-2010 to 19-11-2010

Long term and Intermediate term trends are up.Short term trend is down.Wave 3 could not complete its minimum target of 5359 and slipped from 6339 after good selling at higher levels therefore correction of upmove from 5349 will be considered. If Wave-3 minimum target of 6359 would have achieved then ABC correction of whole Wave 3 have been considered which started on 13-07-2009 from 3919. At present correction of upmove between  5349- 6339 will be considered.

Previous week candle is "Engulfing Bearish". It is moderate reliable reversal pattern. Follow up weekly bearish candle will mean sharp down moves. It is showing strong possibility of correctiocion.

Daily and intraday charts of Indices and many pivotal stocks are showing good selling at higher levels. Indian markets slipped sharply in last week. Technical positions are as follows:-

1- Strong resistance range is:-6260-6315
2- Rising trendline of on going uptrend has not broken yet
3- Last 2 sessions Nifty intraday pattern is Fountain and it is consoldation formation.
4- 1st Support- 6033-6057(Last Gap)
5- 2nd Support- 5932-6000(Strong support range)
6- Last support range 5932-6000 is strong support range and Nifty got support 3 times within this range previously.

1- Daily chart


Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

1-Averages- All the lower period EMA(8,21,55,200) are above higher period EMA and showing strength in trend. Nifty moved below 8 EMA and above all averages.

2-Bollinger Band- Nifty is in the middle of both Bands and moved below average line therefore showing weakness.

3-MACD- Both lines are in positive zone and has shown negative divergence. MACD intersected Average line downward last Friday therefore it is giving down move confirmation. Correction has started and downward intersection after negative divergence has given more down moves signals.

4-ROC- At equilibrium line and moving down after showing negative divergence in positive zone therefore indicating more downmoves possibilities.

5-RSI- Below equilibrium line and moving down after showing negative divergence in positive zone therefore indicating more downmoves possibilities.

6-Slow Stochastic- Both lines are below equilibrium line and near oversold line. As it is very short term indicator therefore moved near oversold line after last week selling and indicating very short term upmove possibility.

7-William %R- Below equilibrium line and above oversold line. As it is very short term indicator therefore moved below equilibrium line after last week selling and indicating very short term upmove possibility after after litle more down move.

2- Daily Indicators and Averages chart-



Conclusions

Firstly 2 following possibilities will be considered after follow up moves on Monday:-

1- Correction started after good higher levels selling and last 2 sessions intraday patterns are indicating consolidation formations therefore if follow up selling does not develop immediately then minor pull back rally possibility can not be ruled out in the begining of next week.
2- Last support range is 5932-6000 and if follow up selling develop on next Monday then breaking down possibility of 5932 will be high. Intermediate term trend will be down below 5932 and that will mean down moves from 3 weeks to 3 months.

Only minor pull back rally expected which will not be able to move above 6250 amid whatsoever bullish sentiment/news. As good selling at higher levels therefore complete consolidation requires for next rally.

MACD has given down move confirmation,Negative divergence in MACD,ROC,RSI are confirming weakness and higher levels intraday selling in Indices and most pivotal stocks therefore more downward as well as retesting 5932 possibility is high in the coming week.

Only minor pull back rally possibility in the begining of week otherewise finally testing 5932 and breaking down of 5932 as well as intermediate term trend turning downward possibility is high in the coming week.

Mid-Session Outlook(12-11-2010)

It was clearly told on 09-11-2010 and today for following supports that:-

"Support but not strong"

1- 6240-6260(Support but not strong)
2- 6150-6170(Support but not strong)
3- 6100-6130(Support but not strong)

All 3 supports broken in 4 days and Nifty made 6088.05 today. It has been confirmed that previous week rally was only on the back of following bullish news:-

1- Obama visit
2- Strong global markets
3- Coal Indian listing

As market could not sustained at higher levels and slipped sharply therefore 6100 will be watched and its breaking down will mean testing possibility of 5932.

Market is weak. No bottom fishing and long positions only after consolidation confirmations.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(12-11-2010)

I told in Muhurat Trading Outlook:-"Forceful break out and sustaining above 6350 is must for strong rally above new high"

It was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(09-11-2010):-

2- Sentiment extremely bullish threrefore previous top(6357) break out should be with force.
3- Sentiment heated therefore intraday or very short term 1/2% corrections can be seen any day and it may be a part of consolidation also
4- until complete selling patterns will not develop till then even short term correction will not be considered.

It was told in Pre-Open Market Outlook(11-11-2010):-

Last 3 days trading range is 6245-6310 and intraday charts are suggesting selling at the top of range within 6275-6310 and testing of lower levels of range(6245-6265) is expected. Breaking down of 6245 expected after getting selling confirmations from last 3 sessions intraday charts. Next supports are as follows:-

1- 6245-6260(Support but not strong)
2- 6150-6170(Support but not strong)
3- 6100-6130(Support but not strong)
4- 5932-5995(Strong Support)

6350 was not broken by force therefore correction was seen yesterday

6245 broken by force yesterday and next support ranges have been given and their strength has also been mentioned as well as their testing possibility can not be ruled out. Short term correction is confirmed now and market requires complete consolidations for fresh upmoves. Above mentioned supports testing possibility can not be ruled out. Intermediate term up trend is safe above 5932.

Nifty moved down with Fountain pattern yesterday and it is consolidation pattern but confirmation required. If consolidatiom will be visible today then correction completion will be considered otherwise continuation of down moves to test above mentioned levels will be seen.

2nd support range 6150-6170 testing is expected today and next moves will be decided  and posted according to intraday trading patterns.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(11-11-2010)

6245 Broken and testing of supports mentioned in Pre-Open Outlook is possible.

Mid-Session Outlook(11-11-2010)

I told in Pre-Open Outlook that:-

"Breaking down of 6245 expected after getting selling confirmations from last 3 sessions intraday charts"

6245 broken and Nifty recovered after forming the bottom at 6237. Although good selling in last 3 days but today intraday patterns are not showing genuine selling formations despite down move according to expectations. It has to be kept in mond that all trends are bullish and market is prepare only for very short term correction which may be completed after some consolidations and today intraday patterns are indicating consolidations patterns also.

Sustaining beyond 6245 will be considered for next immediate move confirmations. As and when I shall get confirmations then will convey accordingly.

NIFTY-NOV F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 10-11-2010-COVERING

NIFTY NOV F & O(SHORTED ON 10-11-2010)-COVER AND BOOK PROFIT IMMEDIATELY-CMP-6289(WE SHALL SHORT AGAIN BUT FIRST COVER)

Short Term Correction will Commence

Pre-Open Market Outlook(11-11-2010)

Last 3 days trading range is 6245-6310 and intraday charts are suggesting selling at the top of range within 6275-6310 and testing of lower levels of range(6245-6265) is expected. Breaking down of 6245 expected after getting selling confirmations from last 3 sessions intraday charts. Next supports are a sfollows:-

1- 6245-6260(Support but not strong)
2- 6150-6170(Support but not strong)
3- 6100-6130(Support but not strong)
4- 5932-5995(Strong Support)

All trends are up and only it was to be decided that new top formations will be after short term correction of before any further correction. As last 3 sessions got selling confirmations therefore firstly correction then consolidation and after that new top formation will be seen and above mentioned supports testing possibility can not be ruled out. Intermediate term up trend is safe above 5932.

Correction commencement expected from today and Red closing will be seen after weak opening today.

NIFTY-NOV F&O-1ST SHORTING TRADE OF 10-11-2010-TRADE

NIFTY(NOV FUT-SELL-POSITIONAL)SL-6336-TGT-6245-CMP-6309

NIFTY(NOV PUT OPTION-BUY-POSITIONAL)-S.P.FOR PUT-6200,6300-NIFTY(NOV FUT)-RATES ARE FOR SL-6336-TGT-6245 FOR ALL OPTIONS-CMP-6309

Mid-Session Outlook-3(10-11-2010)

Nifty trading range of today is 6274-6305 and break out this range will be confirmation of next good move. Although last 2 days intraday patterns were suggesting selling but today intraday formations are telling for buying also therefore moves above 6300 will also be considered and sustaing beyond today range will be confirmation of next strong moves.

Mid-Session Outlook-2(10-11-2010)

Nifty could not sustain above 6300 and sliped.Fresh up move confirmation level is sustaining above 6300 therefore be bullish only after sustaining above 6300.

Mid-Session Outlook(10-11-2010)

Intraday patterns suggesting buying today therefore if Nifty sustains above 6300 today then it will be confirmation of consolidatin and correction completion within narrow range as well as continuation of fresh upmoves above 6300 to test all time high.

Post-Open Outlook-2(10-11-2010)

Nifty 19 points down and Nifty Nov Fut 27 points down immediately after opening today and almost neutrialised yesterday sharp surge at 02:03 PM IST sharp surge. As I was having doubts on yesterday sharp surge therefore I told follwing lines in mid night posted today Pre-Open Outlook:-

"Above observation has been presented with this intention that yesterday glbals cues led voltality and higher level closing may be for selling in heating sentiment"

I also posted a topic at 04:44 PM yesterday which name was "Sharp Surge in All Global Markets in 1 Minute Today". i told following lines in that topic:-

"Confirmations required to validate mentioned sharp surge"

Althogh Indian markets closed positive near the top of rally yesterday but I started today Pre-Open Market Outlook with following lines:-

"Last 2 days trading range is 6245-6310 with selling patterns within mentioned range"

Although weak opening but yesterday minor intraday support near 6245 also and if Nifty sustains below it today then it will be very short term correction confirmation.

Pre-Open Market Outlook(10-11-2010)

Last 2 days trading range is 6245-6310 with selling patterns within mentioned range. Nifty traded 2 hours yesterday within 6245-6265 and after that sharp surge was seen at 02:03 PM IST. I am presenting my following observation for mentioned 02:03 PM IST sharp surge:-

Sharp surge was seen in all the running global markets at 02:03 PM IST yesterday. Sharp upmoves within 1 minute seen in all the following running global markets:-

1- Dow Futures- recovered more than 27 points within 1 minute
2- FTSE 100- recovered more than 25 points within 1 minute
3- CAC 40- recovered more than 17 points within 1 minute
4- Dax- recovered more than 22 points within 1 minute
5- Nifty- recovered more than 15 points within 1 minute

International event is not known for mentioned international sharp surge but Red zone trading European Indices traded and closed in Green with higher levels selling patterns. Dow Futures recovered from -40 to +30 and traded 50 points down yesterday and Nifty surged from Red to Green and closed near the top of the day.

Above observation has been presented with this intention that yesterday glbals cues led voltality and higher level closing may be for selling in heating sentiment therefore yesterday closing above 6300 should not be taken as upmove and immediate new top formation confirmation but let Nifty sustain above 6300 with consolidation patterns then that will be confirmation of immediate sharp up moves to test levels in this week weekly. If Nifty sustains below 6240 after fresh seeling today then that will be short term correction confirmation and yesterday mentioned supports may be tested.

Range bound market in last 2 sessions and market will prepare in the coming sessions for next moves as well as break out of last 2 days range with force as well as sustainability beyond will give next move confirmations.

Nifty will trade first within last 2 days trading range.As patterns are mixed therefore let market prepare then break out diretion will be decided from intraday charts formations.

Sharp Surge in All Global Markets in 1 Minute Today

Sharp surge was seen in all the running global markets at 02:03 PM IST today. Sharp upmoves within 1 minute seen in all the following running global markets:-

1- Dow Futures- recovered more than 27 points within 1 minute
2- FTSE 100- recovered more than 25 points within 1 minute
3- CAC 40- recovered more than 17 points within 1 minute
4- Dax- recovered more than 22 points within 1 minute
5- Nifty- recovered more than 15 points within 1 minute

International event is not known but Red zone trading European Indices are trading more than .65% up at this moment and more than 40 points down trading Dow futures is trading 12 points up at this moment. Confirmations required to validate mentioned sharp surge.All these up moves started  at 02:03 PM IST  today from above mentioned 1 minute sharp surge.