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13 Months Nifty Trend is at Stake

Technical Analysis,Researches & Market Outlook(08-08-2011)

Nifty-EOD Chart (05-Aug-2011):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts


1- 15-06-2010- Lowest at 5171.05 and closing at 5222.35
2- 11.02.2011- Lowest at 5177.70 and closing at 5225.80 on 10.02.2011
3- 05.08.2011- Lowest at 5116.45 and closing at 5211.25
4- Crucial Support at 5171
5- Lowest closing between 15 points(5211.25-5225.80) in last 3 bottom foemations near 5171.
5- 13 Months lowest formed on 05.08.2011.

Conclusions

All trends are down,nothing is left for Bulls and up trend surviving last hope is 5171. Nifty closed above 5171 and also closed near the the two previous closing levels therefore 5171 is still valid. Sustaining below 5171 is must for the breaking down of last 13 Months structure which is certainly at stake.

Implications of 5171 Failure/Survuval

1- Failure(sustaining below 5171) will mean that down moves confirmations which may result repetition of 2008 like Bear market
2- Survival(sustaining above 5171) will mean only bounce back or pull back rally because Very short term indications are oversold. As all trends are down and multiple resistances at higher levels therefore market require consolidation before any sustained upmoves and only  bounce back/pull back rally will be considered.

Asian markets and US Futures will react on US down grading news and Indian markets's opening will also respond it. Nifty traded between 5120-5224 with intraday consolidation patterns and its detailed analysis has been posted in:-

Nifty-Micro Analysis of Intra Day Chart For 08-08-2011

Nifty and most of the other Indices and Pivotal Stocks also showing good consolidations on 05-08-2011 therefore until fresh intraday selling will not develop and Nifty will not sustain below 5120 despite most depressing news from USA. Follow up moves will be firstly watched Monday morning and then next view should be formed in high voltage News Flow market. Sustaining beyond last Friday trading range(5120-5224) will be next market confirmation.

Let Indian markets prepare for next moves then conclusions for coming sessions markets will be drawn and also updated in Mid-session Outlooks.