Crucial Trading Range will decide Next 3% Moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(22-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (21-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns between 7963-7978 
2- Mixed Patterns between 7926-7947 
3- Whole day actual trading between 7885-7978

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Just Watch Crucial levels also amid Rally Continuation Expectations":-

1- finally sustaining beyond 7843-7980 will be next big moves confirmation
2- these crucial levels should be also firstly watched in the coming sessions amid rally continuation expectations

Rally continuation with the condition of sustaining beyond 7843-7980 was told and rally was seen also after gap up opening but could not move above 7980 and fused after today highest formation at 7978.45.

Resistances between 7920-7980 has been updated 4/5 times in previous Outlooks and Nifty faced resistance within this range with mixed patterns formations within this range today therefore fresh consolidation is must for decisive up moves above 7980.

Although slipping from higher levels and flat closing but today intraday chart is showing mixed patterns formations and some consolidation was also seen above 7843 in last 2 sessions therefore still Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves between 7843-7980. 

Expected that Nifty will trade between 7843-7980 in the coming 1/2 sessions and finally valid break out of this crucial trading range will decide next 3% moves. Let it happen then next Short Term Trend beyond this range will be understood and updated accordingly from intraday Patterns formations.  

Just Watch Crucial levels also amid Rally Continuation Expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(21-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Up moves immediately after opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Last 5 hours sideways trading between 7878-7920
4- Whole day actual trading between 7878-7950

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 18-04-2016 in "Firstly Rally continuation expectations are high":-

1- Resistances between 7920-7980
2- now Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves between 7843-7980
3- Firstly Rally continuation expectations are high

Although firstly up moves immediately after opening but resistances were there at higher levels between 7920-7980 therefore not sustaining at higher levels and whole day today trading within mentioned levels(7843-7980). As Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel was also seen and as such selling patterns were also not seen between last 5 hours sideways trading between 7878-7920 therefore on going rally continuation hopes are alive but decisive and strong up moves will be seen only above 7980.

As 5 hours sideways trading between 7878-7920 and valid break out of this range will be first indication as well as finally sustaining beyond 7843-7980 will be next big moves confirmation therefore these crucial levels should be also firstly watched in the coming sessions amid rally continuation expectations because Short Term indicators are now overbought.

Firstly Rally continuation expectations are high

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-04-2016)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Loosing 65 points within first 7 minutes after gap up strong opening.
2- Up moves with intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 7843-7920

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although all the Asian markets were trading in deep Red and Dow's Futures was also more than 100 points down today morning but strong gap up 57 points positive opening of Nifty and also slipping into Red after loosing 65 points within first 7 minutes. As whole day up moves were with intraday corrections and any other intraday pattern formation was also not seen after first 7 minutes sharp fall therefore view will be cautiously Bullish because Bearish Hanging Man Candle formation today. 

Resistances between 7920-7980 were updated at 02:07 AM today in "Immediate target of Nifty at 8374.20" and today highest was at 7920.60.

As resistances are lying just above today highest therefore Nifty has to consolidate for decisive up moves above 7980 and if some selling develops after Mixed Patterns formations today then only Very Short Term Correction will be seen. 

As now Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves between 7843-7980 therefore let it happen then next decisive moves beyond this range will be understood from intraday Patterns formations within this range(7843-7980) and valid break out of this range should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for next big trend confirmations.

Firstly Rally continuation expectations are high after follow up consolidation because Indian markets out performed all Asian and European markets and intraday selling patterns were not seen despite Bearish Hanging Man Candle formation today.  

Immediate target of Nifty at 8374.20

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 18 to Apr 22,2016)

7 Years Waves structures of post 2008 correction 

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Impulsive Wave-1 beginning after 2008 big correction completion)
2- Corrective  Wave 2 beginning after Wave 1 completion at 6338.50 on 05-11-2010
3- Impulsive Wave-3 beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
4- Corrective  Wave 4 beginning after many times new life time high formations and Wave 3 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015
5- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning after 12 Months Wave-4 correction completion at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
6- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Indian markets are tend to move in 7/8 years time cycles in following manner:-

1- In Apr 1992 -Rally finished after Harshad Mehta scam
2- In Jan 2000 -IT Rally finished after Ketan Parikh scam 
3- In Jan 2008 -Rally finished after Lehman brothers scam 
4- In Mar 2015 -Rally finished after Budget-2015-16.

2008 Correction completed at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008 and after that Wave-1 of fresh rally begun in Apr 2009 after 5 months sideways consolidation. Now its Wave-i of Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016 which will remain continued above life time high(9119.20) in the coming months and years because Indian markets  time cycles remains continued for 7/8 years therefore the rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 may remain on for this period also.

Waves Structure of Impulsive Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-3(on Long Chart) beginning after 13 Months Wave-2 correction completion at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Corrective  Wave 2 beginning after Wave 1 completion at 6229.45 on 20-05-2013
3- Impulsive Wave-3 beginning after Wave 2 correction completion at 5118.85 on 28-08-2013
4- Corrective Wave 4 beginning after Wave 3 completion at 8174.55 on 09-09-2014
5- Impulsive Wave-5 beginning after correction completion at 7723.85 on 17-10-2014
6- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning
7- Wave-A completion(7940.30 on 12-06-2015) and Wave-B beginning
8- Wave-B completion(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C completion at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and Wave 1 of fresh Rally beginning
10- Recent top of Wave 1 formation at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Impulsive Wave-3 which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and after that 'ABC' correction of Wave-4 begun which finished at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016.Now Wave 1 of Wave-5 is on which is impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 of that rally which started at 2252.75 on 27-10-2008.

Waves Structure of Post Budget-2015 Correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction of Wave-4((on Long Chart)) beginning after life time high formation
2- Wave-1 of Wave-A(8269.15 on 27-03-2015)
3- Wave-2 of Wave-A(8844.40 on 15-04-2015)
4- Wave-3 of Wave-A(7997.15 on 07-05-2015)
5- Wave-4 of Wave-A(8489.55 on 22-05-2015)
6- Wave-5 of corrective Wave-A completion at 7940.30 on 12-06-2015 and Wave-B beginning
7- Wave-B completion and corrective Wave-C beginning(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
8- Wave-1 of Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
9- Wave-2 of Wave-C(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
10- Wave-3 of Wave-C(7241.50 on 20-01-2016)
11- Wave-4 of Wave-C(7600.45 on 01-02-2016)
12- Wave-5 of corrective Wave-C completion at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and Wave 1 of fresh Rally beginning
13- Recent top of Wave 1 formation at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

'ABC' correction of whole this rally begun from 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 which started from 4531.15 on 20-12-2011. Wave-4 correction with 5 sub waves of both Wave-A and Wave-C lasted 12 months and completed at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016. Now impulsive Wave-5 continuation with its Wave 1 recent top formation at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016.   

Waves Structure of Post Budget-2016 Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5(on Long Chart) beginning after bottom formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
2- Firstly 10 sessions sideways trading between 7405.15-7583.70
3- Secondly 16 sessions sideways trading between 7516.85-7777.60
4- Forceful break out of Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7766) on 13-04-2016
5- Rally continuation after forceful break out of 16 sessions trading range with Recent top of Wave-i of Wave-5 formations at 7864.80 on 13-04-2016

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

That impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 which begun from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 is in continuation after forceful break out of 16 sessions sideways trading range(7516.85-7777.60). As this 1039 points rally from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016  corrections were with 10 sessions and 16 sessions sideways trading and deeper corrections were not seen therefore this rally will be understood a technically strong rally because forceful break out of Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7766) also on 13-04-2016.

12 Months Correction with Bullish Flag formations

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-3 on long Chart beginning at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-3 completion and corrective Wave-4 beginning at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 
3- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
4- 12 Months correction with Bullish Flag formations
5- Forceful break out of Upper falling line of Bullish Flag on 13-04-2016 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

12 Months correction from 9119.20 to 6826 was with Bullish Flag formations and Nifty has not slipped below its lower falling line as well as strong Pull Back Rally started from Budget-2016 day which is in continuation. As forceful break out of Upper falling line of Bullish Flag on 13-04-2016 also therefore confirmation of Bullish Flag validity and high possibility on going rally continuation above life time high(9119.20). 

Inverse Head And Shoulders formations

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Apr-2016):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern formations with its Neckline at 7600
2- Head formation at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 
3- Neckline(7600) break out confirmation after forceful rally on 13-04-2016 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

As Neckline broken out confirmation on 13-04-2016 therefore 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern target(8374.20) turns valid as per following calculations:- 

Head formation at 6825.80
Neckline of pattern is at 7600
7600-6825.80= 774.20 points distance between Head and Neckline 
Neckline was broken out on 18-03-2016 with closing at 7604.35 
Inverse Head and Shoulders Neckline broken out confirmation will mean next target of Nifty at 7600+774.20=8374.20

Strong possibility of Nifty will test 8374.20 in the coming sessions or months.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Bottom of 12 months correction formation on Budget day at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and we told following lines at 02:12 AM on 01-03-2016 in "Strongest indications of correction completion at 6825.80 and Fresh Rally above 9119.20"

1- Strongest indications of last 12 months Long Term correction completion today at 6825.80.
2- Very much expected that finally 6825.80 will be proved the lowest of that correction which begun at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015  
3- Finally fresh rally above 9119.20 will be seen before or immediately after Budget 2017-18 

Nifty moved up 1039 points after 29-02-2016 but who told such words like above in whole India before 02:12 AM on 01-03-2016 except us. I would say with guarantee that no one would have imagine such strong rally which was seen from 01-03-2016. 

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend was sideways after last 26 sessions sideways trading but high possibility of its turning up after forceful up moves above last 26 sessions trading range on 13-04-2016.
3- Long Term Trend turning up high possibility after forceful break out of its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 7766) on 13-04-2016.

On Long chart Wave-5 beginning at 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 to move above the top(9119.20) of Wave-5 and this wave has correction also in last 26 sessions within sideways trading ranges as well as forceful break out of these range on 13-04-2016 therefore expected that on going Wave-5 will remain continued towards following resistances:-  

1- 7920-7980
2- 8060-8140
3- 8270-8320

Wave-i of Wave-5 is on and no signal of its completion yet as well as its continuation towards the target(8374.20) of 48 sessions Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern because confirmation of forceful break out of its Neckline(7600) also. As conformation of Bullish Flag validity also therefore Nifty will move above life time high(9119.20) .  

Indian markets are tend to move in 7/8 years time cycles and Indian markets are Bullish on Long charts therefore rally above life time high(9119.20) will be seen in the coming months and years but corrections will also be seen as per the nature of markets. Immediate target of Nifty is at 8374.20 which is drawn from validity confirmation of Inverse Head And Shoulders pattern but after complete corrections and consolidations because above mentioned multiple resistances are lying below it.