Previous week started correction continuation expectations towards next supports

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 19 to Oct 23,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning.

2- Wave-B completion indications with recent top formation at 12025.45 on 15-10-2020 and correction beginning.

3- Fibonacci retracement levels of correction:-

1- 13.0%- 11438 

2- 23.6%- 10960 

3- 27.0%- 10806

4- 38.2%- 10301(Crucial)

5- 50.0%-  9768(Crucial)

6- 61.8%-  9235(Crucial)

7- 70.7%-  8833

8- 76.4%-  8576

9- 78.6%-  8477

10-88.6%-  8025

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

As 363 points sharp fall from higher levels on 15-10-2020 and Nifty closed below the lowest of last 5 sessions after testing psychological level of 12000 therefore first strong signal 

Wave-B completion and Wave-C beginning.

Once confirmation of Wave-C formation will mean correction continuation according to  above mentioned Fibonacci retracement levels and that should be watched for supports getting and next moves in coming weeks/months/years.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

((Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (16-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 11855

2- 13-Day SMA is today at 11678

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 11421

4- 200-Day SMA is today at 10721

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

Short Term Trend has turned down after after slipping 363 points from higher levels on 15-10-2020 and last 2 sessions closing below its decider 5-Day SMA(today at 11855).

Although Nifty tested 13-Day SMA(today at 11678) in last 2 sessions but closed above it. Once sustaining below it will mean first signal of Intermediate Term Trend turning down and its confirmation will be after sustaining below its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 11421)

Long Term Trend is very much up because Nifty closed more than 1000 points up its decider 200-Day SMA(10721) last Friday and even it was not tested in Sep 2020 fall also.  

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(16-Oct-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp down after positive opening

2- Sideways trading between 11717-11768

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

4- Sideways trading between 11747-11789

5- Whole day actual trading between 11668-11789

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly sharp down after strong opening but after that whole day slow up moves were seen and some selling also through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel.

As up moves were slow and 2 times sideways trading as well as one sided trading patterns were not seen therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves between and near about 11717-11789 in the beginning of next week and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in next week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

Although Wave-B continuation and no confirmation of its completion yet but first signal of its completion and Wave-C beginning had been generated after Long Black Engulfing Candle formation on 15-10-2020. As Very-Very Short Term indicators have turned Oversold after 15th Oct 2020 big fall therefore some up moves towards following next resistances can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week:-

1- 11823-11883

2- 11923-12025

Once failing to sustain above resistances will mean correction continuation towards and below following next supports:-

1- 11565-11607

2- 11391-11417

3- 11201-11270

4- 11073-11099(Gap support)

5- 10963-11006

6- 10791-10833

Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA is today at 10721 which is just below 6th support lowest and once sustaining below it will mean Long Term Trend turning down confirmation as well as Wave-C formation confirmation to move below the origin of Wave-B(7511.10).

Although some up moves can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but expected that Nifty will not be able to sustain above resistances and finally Nifty will slip below last week lowest(11661.3) and previous week started correction will remain continued towards above mentioned next supports one by one. 

 Finally correction continuation after follow up selling 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(16-10-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11841-12025

2- Sharp down moves in last 3 hours

3- Whole day actual trading between 11662-12025

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed at the top of the day yesterday but we were not Bullish because before that more than 4 hours trading between 11823-11883 was not with consolidation patterns but only with volatility therefore we were cautious hence told following lines yesterday in "Levels will confirm next decisive moves "

firstly sustaining beyond 12000 and after that 11782-11883 should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Our Previous Outlooks on "Home Page" are live proofs of this fact that we are continuously telling that Nifty will not sustain above 12000 and it has been seen in this week.

As intraday patterns of previous sessions were showing selling patterns and today was its reaction day therefore sharp fall was seen with huge follow up selling and Nifty closed at the lower levels of the day after slipping 363 points from higher levels.

As Very-Very Short Term indicators have turned Oversold after today huge fall therefore some up moves can not be ruled out but expected that finally today started correction will remain continued after follow up selling in the coming 1/2 sessions.

 Levels will confirm next decisive moves 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(15-10-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours volatile trading between 11823-11883

2- Sharp up in last hours

3- Whole day actual trading between 11823-11997

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told at 12:47 AM on 14-10-2020 in "Correction continuation towards next supports":-

correction continuation is expected below day's lowest and towards next supports between 11782-11840

Nifty got supports within yesterday mentioned supports(11782-11840) and after that sharp up was seen in last hours but firstly more than 4 hours volatile trading between 11823-11883 because:-

Whole day today was full of following misleading news from media channels regarding Supreme Court hearing on Loan Moratorium:-

1- Firstly news was hearing will begin from 10:30 AM.

2- After that news came that hearing will start after Lunch Break.

3- After 02:30 PM channels told that Loan Moratorium case will be heard in the last.

4- After 03:00 PM this news was broadcasted that Judgement will not be announced today.

As such misleading news flow therefore 4 hours volatile trading between 11823-11883 and after that sharp up in last hours therefore firstly sustaining beyond 12000 and after that 11782-11883 should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Correction continuation towards next supports

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(14-10-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (13-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11943-11989

2- Selling between 11922-11952

3- Whole day actual trading between 11888-11989

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day good selling therefore correction continuation is expected below day's lowest and towards next supports between 11782-11840.

Finally correction without sustaining above 12000

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & 

Market Outlook(13-10-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (12-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves with upward corrections

2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

4- Whole day actual trading between 11868-12022

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As most Asian markets were trading with good gains therefore strong gap opening and firstly trading also above 12000 but not sustaining and started to slip. 

Although first 3 hours down moves were with upward corrections which means that down moves with continuous selling but some lower levels consolidation was also seen Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore today lowest will be immediate supports of nifty.

As last hour slow up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore follow up selling will be understood which means that intraday chart of today is showing sufficient selling.

More or less today trading will be understood will higher levels selling and expected that finally correction will be below today lowest without sustaining above 12000 despite Dow Jones is now trading more than 300 points up and SGX Nifty is now trading above 12000.  

Bank Nifty-Levels will confirm the life of on going previous week rally

Bank Nifty Weekly Outlook

(Oct 12 to Oct 16,2020)

Bank Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Corrective Waves)

Bank Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 32613.1 on 30-12-2019 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning

2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 16116..3 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning

3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 25232.6 on 31-08-2020

4- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 92.75 & %D(3) is at 92.06

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Corrective Waves)

Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 25232.6 on 31-08-2020 and no confirmation of its completion yet.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis (Stochastic)

Nifty-EOD Chart (09-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 25232.6 on 31-08-2020

2- Stochastic-%K(5) is at 92.75 & %D(3) is at 92.06

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic)

As Short Term indicator Stochastic is completely overbought therefore Short Term correction is very much due which will start any day in next week and expected that correction may be deeper also.

Bank Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(09-Oct-2020)

Bank Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Oct-2020):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel

2- Last 4 hours sideways trading between 23551-23904 

3- Whole day actual trading between 23133-23904

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Global markets were strong therefore sentiment was heated hence whole day up moves were seen. Although last Friday closing was at the top of the day but firstly up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel and last 4 hours sideways trading was between 23551-23904 therefore expected that Bank Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this trading range in the beginning of next week. 

Finally sustaining beyond 23551-23904 will confirm next decisive moves which should be firstly watched in next week. 

Conclusions

(After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 25232.6 on 31-08-2020 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet.

As Short Term Indicator Stochastic is over bought therefore Short Term correction is very much due but intraday charts of previous week are not showing good selling patterns therefore immediate down moves will not be seen.

Last 4 hours sideways trading between 23551-23904 was seen last Friday and clear one sided intraday trading patterns were not seen therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the beginning of next week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Although Bank Nifty under performed most Indices in post March 2020 rally but it has out performed most Indices in previous week and clear selling patterns were not seen also therefore until complete selling patterns will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen and firstly sustaining beyond 23551-23904 should be watched in next week for the life of on going previous week rally.