Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning confirmations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Jul 21 to Jul 26,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective  Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 11399.30 on 19-07-2019

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Modi ji's Victory gap)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 165 Points "Modi ji's Victory gap" supports formations between 11426-11591 on 20-05-2019 after Exit Polls results on 19-05-2019
2- "Modi ji's Victory gap" filled up on 19-07-2019 after Nifty slipping below 11426 and on that day intraday lowest formation was at 11399.30.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5-Day SMA(today at 11590)
2- 13-Day SMA(today at 11644)
3- 55-Day SMA(today at 11698)
4- 200-Day SMA(today at 11125)

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is up which will be down after sustaining below 200-Day SMA(today at 11125) 
2- Intermediate Term Trend has turned down after last 10 sessions closing and sustaining below below 55-Day SMA(today at 11698)
3- Short Term Trend is down

Although 165 Points "Modi ji's Victory gap" supports formations between 11426-11591 on 20-05-2019 after Exit Polls results on 19-05-2019 but this gap filled up after slipping below 11426 therefore strong rally hopes after Modi ji's Victory have come to an end.

As real disappointment erupted from Union Budget 2019-20 therefore the correction which begun on very that day remained continued on next trading day(08-07-2019) in crashing like situation and Nifty closed on that day below 55-Day SMA. Last 10 sessions closing is below 55-Day SMA and it means that Intermediate Term Trend has turned down. As life of Intermediate Term Trend is minimum from 3 weeks to 3 months therefore this trend will remain down for this period and may be more than it also. 

Wave-A beginning confirmation of that 5 Waves rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and finished at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 after gaining 5278 points. Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-1 to Wave-5(6825-12103) are as follows:-

1- 13.0%-11,416
2- 23.6%-10,857
3- 27.0%-10,677
4- 38.2%-10,086(Crucial)
5- 50.0%-9,464(Crucial)
6- 61.8%-8,841(Crucial)
7- 70.7%-8,371
8- 76.4%-8,070
9- 78.6%-7,954 
10-88.6%-7,426

Wave-A of "ABC" correction is on and 13.0%(11416) retracement level has been tested last friday as well as testing of above mentioned lower levels can not be ruled out in next weeks and months because it is just beginning of correction and Nifty has to correct those 5278 points which it gained in 5 Waves rally of 40 months. 

Last hope for the Bulls is only Long Term Trend which is still up and that will be down after sustaining below 200-Day SMA(today at 11125) as well as its testing can not be ruled out in the coming weeks. 

As and when Short Term Indicators will turn oversold then Pull Back Rallies will be seen which will fuse near about following resistances:- 

1- 11467-11493
2- 11511-11543
3- 11637-11700

Correction is on and "investments in Bear markets is like catching a falling knief which results own hand is full of own blood" therefore firstly wait for trend reversal after complete consolidation and correction completion. Although short term trading opportunities through buying will remain avalable after Short Term Indicators turning oversold and emergence of Pull Back rally beginning signals.. 

Sustaining beyond crucial levels will form next trend

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-07-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11637-11677(Immediate Resistances)
2- Sharp fall in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 11583-11677

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the global markets were too much weaker in following manner today morning therefore negative opening of Indian markets:-

1- Dow Jones closed more than 100 points down yesterday after weaker closing of all European markets.
2- Dow Jones's Futures was trading more than 100 points down today morning.
3- Most Asian markets were trading 0.50% to 1.5% down today morning. 
4- Most European markets were trading more than 0.50% to 0.80% down during Indian trading hours.

As more than 4 hours fresh selling between 11637-11677 today therefore it will be immediate resistance on Nifty. Next supports of Nifty are as follows:-

1- 11520-11573
2- 11461-11500

Although sharp fall in last hour but lower levels above supports are also lying below today lowest therefore firstly Nifty will have to trade and prepare for next trend between 11461-11706 and finally sustaining beyond this range(crucial levels) will form next trend which should be watched in the coming sessions.

Strong rally after follow up consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-07-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with intraday corrections
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Minor selling patterns formations
4- Whole day actual trading between 11652-11706

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "Rally after sideways consolidation":-

tomorrow will be sideways consolidation day which is expected between 11639-11702.

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today and Nifty traded sideways between 11651.15-11706.65.

Although minor selling patterns formations but good consolidation also through Up moves with intraday corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore on going rally continuation possibility is alive. 

Once follow up consolidation tomorrrow will mean strong rally towards next resistance(11798) after sustaining above today highest.

Rally after sideways consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-07-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Sharp up
3- More than 4 hours consolidation between 11612-11639
4- Last hour trading with Mixed Patterns formation between 11645-11670
5- Whole day actual trading between 11574-11670

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told yesterday in "11639 Will confirm fresh and decisive up moves":-

if fresh consolidation develops tomorrrow also then finally fresh and decisive up moves will be seen and its confirmation will be after sustaining above 11639. 

As firstly consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and after that more than 4 hours consolidation between 11612-11639 as well as 6 hours sustaining above "Modi ji's Victory gap" highest(11591) therefore strong indications of rally continuation above today highest((11670).

Following resistances were updated on 13-07-2019 in ""Modi ji's Victory gap"(11426-11591) will confirm next Trend ":-

1- 11607-11638
2- 11676-11702
3- 11798-11879
4- 11912-11981

Although today closing was near higher levels of the day but last hour trading was with Mixed Patterns formation between 11645-11670 and next resistances is just above today highest is between 11676-11702 as well as Very Short Term Indicators have also turned over bought therefore tomorrow will be sideways consolidation day which is expected between 11639-11702.

Once follow up consolidation and sustaining above 11702 will mean sharp rally towards next resistance(11798) and above.

11639 Will confirm fresh and decisive up moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-07-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Jul-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 11533-11618

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day consolidation through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels and consolidation developed in the same manner last Friday also therefore it seems that Indian markets are preparing for fresh up moves.

Mixed Patterns formation within 1st resistance range(11607-11638) between 11610-11639 last Friday therefore if fresh consolidation develops tomorrrow also then finally fresh and decisive up moves will be seen and its confirmation will be after sustaining above 11639.