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Analysis for Short Term Traders and Long Term Investors

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008(All time high)
2- 2252.75 on 27-10-2008(Correction completion) 
3- Wave-1(6338.50 on 05-11-2010)
4- Wave-2(4531.15 on 20-12-2011(Rally beginning after 13 Months correction completion)
5- Wave-3 is continuation from 20-12-2011
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-3(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-3(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation &its top formation at 6101.30

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-3 0f Wave-3 is on from 4531.15 and its waves structure with technical formations have to be firstly understood because market will react accordingly in the coming week.

Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 gained 578.20 points(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3 gained 782.95 points(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-3 continuation,its recent top is at 6101.30

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after Sub Wave-4 correction completion. As per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-3 gained 782.95 points as per theory Sub Wave-5 will gain less than 782.95 point from the bottom of Wave-4(5548.35) therefore Sub Wave-5 maximum target will be less than 6331.30(5548.35+782.95). Previous tops above 6000 are as follows:-

1- 6357.10 on 08-01-2008.
2- 6338.50 on 05-11-2010.

As on going Sub Wave-5 rally possible maximum target is near 6331 therefore Triple Top formation may be seen. Expected that Sub Wave-5 will not gain less than 61.8% of Sub Wave-3 gains and Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331.

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-3 continuation after Sub Wave-4 correction completion at 5548.35 and its Waves structure is al follows:-

Waves Structure of Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5

Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Sub Wave-5 coontinuation(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 gained 416.80 points(5965.15 on 11-12-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5(5823.15 on 18-12-2012) 
4- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is continued with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
5- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on(Top formation at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013 and gained 278.15 points yet) but with 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 is on and as per Elliot Wave theory Wave-3 should never be shorter than both Wave-1 and Sub Wave-5. Wave-1 gained 416.80 points as per theory Sub Wave-3 minimum target is:-

5823.15(Sub Wave-3 started)+416.80(Sub Wave-1 gained)=6239.95 is minimum target of ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 but its continuation with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.

Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis

Nifty-Daily Indicators and Averages Analysis Chart(25-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Conclusions (After Putting All Indicators & Averages  Together)

1- 20 Day EMA is at- 6606
2- 55 Day EMA is at- 5890
3- 200 Day EMA is at- 5577

Nifty is trading well above 55 and 200 Day EMA therefore Long and Intermediate term trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 6000-6100 for the last 9 sessions. As Nifty is trading near the upper Band of Bollinger Band for the last 18 sessions therefore indicating down moves possibility to test Lower bend.

Sub Wave-5 is moving up while 4 indicators are moving down therefore Negative Divergence is clearly visible in EOD charts. It is strong indication of loosing strength and deeper correction possibility. As negative divergence in whole Sub Wave-5 therefore possibility of its complete retracement after beginning of correction.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 15 to Jan 25,2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 9 Sessions intraday charts

1- Support between 6000-6020.
2- Support between 6020-6033
3- Resistance between 6068-6100 
4- 9 Sessions actual trading between 6000-6100 

Conclusions from 9 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and  equally good resistances at higher levels as well as volatility also seen.

As technical positions are not one sided at this moment therefore firstly trading will be seen within this range valid break out of this range will decide next immediate trend. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation  between 6014-6033
2- Up moves in Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6014-6080

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day good up moves after lower levels consolidations but between Rising Channel with Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it therefore no immediate rally confirmation despite closing near higher levels of the day and follow up selling in the beginning of next week will mean fast retracement of whole intraday up move of 25-01-2013.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Intermediate to Long Term Outlook for Investors

Wave-2 completed at 4531.15 on 20-12-2011 after 13 Months low formation and correction completion as well as since then Wave-3 continuation and recent top formation exactly after 13 months at 6101.30 on 22-01-2013. As 13 is a Fibonacci Number and financial markets are tend to reverse and form new trend at or near about Fibonacci Numbers therefore possibility of rally top formation within on going 13th month(upto 20-02-2013) should be kept in mind.

Sub Wave-5 targets should be between 6031-6331 and ongoing Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 minimum target is at 6239.95 but its continuation is with Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation within it also therefore possibility of market prepataion for correction. Indicators on daily charts are showing negative divergence which means that market is loosing strength.  As upmoves are without force and lacking momentum therefore telling for rally reaching near targets and correction beginning possibility. Minimum target of onging  Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 is at 6239.95 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 and 2 more waves(Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 and Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5) formations is left therefore following possibilities should be kept in mond:-

1- On going Sub Wave-3 of Sub Wave-5 completion between 6239.95-6331.
2- Sub Wave-4 of Sub Wave-5 correction 
3- Sub Wave-5 of Sub Wave-5 continuation toward maximum 6331. 

As correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 and Sub Wave-5 maximum target is at 6331 therefore double top formation and high possibility of that Sub Wave-3 correction which started from 4770.35 on 04-06-2012. Let correction beginning confirmation come then its levels will be updated.

On going Wave-3 started from 4531.15 and according to Elliot Wave theory its minimum target is at 8616.90 and next rally will restart after above mentioned expected correction completion above 5629.95. Just click following topic link and understand its calculation:-


Short Term Outlook for Traders

Market will react on RBI Credit policy on 29-01-2013 and prepare for next Deravative month upto 31-01-2013. As Union Budget in next month therefore Indian markets will prepare for it also in next month. Negative Divergence in Daily charts therefore possibility of correction and market is preparing for correction also because Bearish Rising Channel formation and 5 Waves of Bearish Rising Wedge formation also seen in EOD Charts.

Technically correction will start from any level between 6239.95-6331 but 9 Sessions sideways market between 6000-6100 with good supports at lower levels and equally good resistances at higher levels as well as highly volatile market in previous week which is Bear market indication therefore Indian markets are well prepared for correction and RBI Credit policy will decide for correction beginning from 29 Jan or 1st week of Feb 3013. 

Although good up moves last Friday but with Bearish formations also and next resistances are between 6068-6100 therefore Nifty will hover around this range next couple of sessions before RBI Credit policy and prepare for next moves. Sharp moves are expected after RBI Credit policy and valid Break out of 6068-6100 will mean:-

1- Below 6068 will mean immediate deeper correction and market is prepare for it also through negative divergence and Bearish formations in EOD Charts.
2- Above 6100 will mean firstly up moves toward 6239.95-6331 and after that deeper correction from 1st week of Feb 3013.

Let market prepare for post RBI Credit policy moves then We shall update in Mid-session Outlooks next moves possibility after RBI Credit policy according to formations of next Monday intraday charts. 

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 25-Jan-2013


FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 25-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII25-Jan-20133789 3202.13586.87

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII25-Jan-2013779.571111.49-331.92

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(25-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green.
2- Closing near higher levels after strong recovery from lower levels.
3- Long White Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.06
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.99
Nifty P/E Ratio(25-Jan-2013): 18.28

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,639
BSE Declines : 1,250 
NSE Advances :   882
NSE Declines :   558

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -16,900(-2.71%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)-  47,600(1.15%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -36,900(-4.21%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -369,700(-4.37%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -235,450(-18.09%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  6,150(0.08%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -769,750(-16.76%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,772,100(26.09%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -1,702,900(-20.24%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  642,800(25.32%)

Nifty- 6200 CE(Jan)- -206,950(-2.13%)
Nifty- 6200 PE(Jan)-  9,450(1.65%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,103.53(179.75 Points & 0.90%)
Nifty- closed at 6,074.65(55.30 Points & 0.92%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,374.45(168.50 Points & 2.05%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,663.85(45.80 Points & 1.27%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels


R3 6164
R2 6122
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6032
S2 5990
S3 5966

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6140     Trgt 2
H5 6125     Trgt 1
H4 6110     Long breakout
H3 6092     Go Short
H2 6086
H1 6080
L1 6067
L2 6061
L3 6055     Long
L4 6037     Short Breakout
L5 6022     Trgt 1
L6 6007     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6166
R2 6124
R1 6098
Avg 6056
S1 6030
S2 5988
S3 5962

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6141     Trgt 2
H5 6126     Trgt 1
H4 6110     Long breakout
H3 6091     Go Short
H2 6085
H1 6079
L1 6066
L2 6060
L3 6054     Long
L4 6035     Short Breakout
L5 6019     Trgt 1
L6 6004     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 28-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12971
R2 12853
R1 12781
Avg 12663
S1 12591
S2 12473
S3 12401

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12901     Trgt 2 
H5 12857     Trgt 1
H4 12813     Long breakout 
H3 12761     Go Short 
H2 12743
H1 12726
L1 12691
L2 12674
L3 12656     Long 
L4 12604     Short Breakout 
L5 12560     Trgt 1 
L6 12516     Trgt 2

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)

Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 6207
R2 6154
R1 6114
Avg 6061
S1 6021
S2 5968
S3 5928

Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 6168     Trgt 2
H5 6146     Trgt 1
H4 6125     Long breakout
H3 6099     Go Short
H2 6091
H1 6082
L1 6065
L2 6056
L3 6048     Long
L4 6022     Short Breakout
L5 6001     Trgt 1
L6 5979     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(Jan 28 to Feb 01,2013)

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels

R3 13031
R2 12890
R1 12791
Avg 12650
S1 12551
S2 12410
S3 12311

Bank Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy 

H6 12936     Trgt 2
H5 12880     Trgt 1
H4 12825     Long breakout
H3 12759     Go Short
H2 12737
H1 12715
L1 12671
L2 12649
L3 12627     Long
L4 12561     Short Breakout
L5 12505     Trgt 1
L6 12449     Trgt 2

Mid-session Outlook-4(25-01-2013)

As more indications of consolidations therefore up move above 6035 expectations was updated in Mid-session Outlook-2(25-01-2013) and it was seen also but immediately after that Bearish Rising Wedge formation also developed therefore valid break out confirmation was required and it has been received through sustaining above 6035.

8 Sessions sideways trading between 6000-6100 with resistances between 6068-6100 and now Nifty is trading at lower levels of this range. Complete consolidation is required for sustaining above 6100. Follow up moves within and near about mentioned resistance range should be watched for the prospects of next rally above 6100 or again range bound market within 6000-6100.

Mid-session Outlook-3(25-01-2013)

Break out and trading above 6035 but showing Bearish Rising Wedge formation therefore having doubt on sustaining above 5035.

For precaution valid break out above should also be watched for confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook-2(25-01-2013)

Today first 2 hours trading between 6015-6035 with mixed patterns formations but more indications of consolidations therefore up move above 6035 is expected and for precaution valid break out above should also be watched for confirmations.

Mid-session Outlook(25-01-2013)

Although Indian markets closed in Red with closing at lowest of the day yesterday but lower levels supports and intraday consolidation patterns were also seen therefore following lines were told in previous Outlook yesterday:-

Follow up moves will be firstly watched tomorrow for confirmation of next moves beyond 6000-6020,its valid break out will mean following moves:-

1- Deeper correction possibility below 6000 or
2- Sideways market(6000-6100) above 6020.

Today first 2 hours trading between 6015-6035 with mixed patterns formations and most time trading between 6025-6035 but not showing any clear technical positions therefore confirmations required through firstly this range break out and after that 6000-6035. 

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(25-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Good support between 6011-6019
2- Consolidation Patterns between 6020-6033
3- Down moves from higher levels without selling patterns. 
4- Whole day actual trading between 6011-6045

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

Following lines told today at 06:10 AM in "Finally Big Correction after sideways Market"

A- Immediate Resistance and supports are as follows:-

1- Resistances between 6068-6100
2- Supports between 6000-6020

B- Under whatsoever Bullish or Bearish sentiment but Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 in the coming session and prepare for next moves,its valid break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 6100 will mean slow up moves maximum up to 6331.
2- Below 6000 will mean sharp down moves with deeper correction possibility.

Nifty traded whole day within above mentioned range between 6007.85-6065.30 today and traded most time within above mentioned supports range(6000-6020) as well as closed within it at 6019.35. Although Indian markets traded whole day in Red and also closed negative after slipping from intraday higher levels but selling patterns were not seen today and on the other hand lower levels supports as well as consolidation patterns also seen today.

Finally Big Correction will be seen and its beginning first strong indication will be valid break down of 6000 but supports seen within it today. As selling patterns formation not seen within it today therefore 6000 breaking down can not be projected at this moment and follow up moves will be firstly watched tomorrow for confirmation of next moves beyond 6000-6020,its valid break out will mean following moves:-

1- Deeper correction possibility below 6000 or 
2- Sideways market(6000-6100) above 6020.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 24-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII24-Jan-20134522.583496.261026.32

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII24-Jan-20131198.241950.5-752.26

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(24-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Red.
2- All Indices closed in Red and some closed in deep Red but CNX FMCG and CNX IT closed in Green.
3- Black Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.04
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 0.98
Nifty P/E Ratio(24-Jan-2013): 18.12

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances :   706
BSE Declines : 2,175
NSE Advances :   244
NSE Declines : 1,227

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- 2,600(0.29%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- 1,057,350(14.24%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- 149,250(12.81%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -554,350(-6.59%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- 1,146,200(32.55%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)- -1,260,150(-15.16%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- 1,923,650(27.31%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -426,000(-13.76%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 19,923.78(-102.83 Points & -0.51%)
Nifty- closed at 6,019.35(-34.95 Points & -0.58%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,205.95(-224.05 Points & -2.66%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,618.05(-95.85 Points & -2.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6111
R2 6088
R1 6053
Avg 6030
S1 5995
S2 5972
S3 5937

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6077     Trgt 2 
H5 6064     Trgt 1
H4 6050     Long breakout 
H3 6034     Go Short 
H2 6029
H1 6024
L1 6013
L2 6008
L3 6003     Long 
L4 5987     Short Breakout 
L5 5973     Trgt 1 
L6 5960     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6114
R2 6091
R1 6055
Avg 6032
S1 5996
S2 5973
S3 5937

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6078     Trgt 2 
H5 6064     Trgt 1
H4 6051     Long breakout 
H3 6035     Go Short 
H2 6029
H1 6024
L1 6013
L2 6008
L3 6002     Long 
L4 5986     Short Breakout 
L5 5973     Trgt 1 
L6 5959     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 25-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12818
R2 12754
R1 12659
Avg 12595
S1 12500
S2 12436
S3 12341

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12723     Trgt 2 
H5 12687     Trgt 1
H4 12651     Long breakout 
H3 12607     Go Short 
H2 12593
H1 12578
L1 12549
L2 12534
L3 12520     Long 
L4 12476     Short Breakout 
L5 12440     Trgt 1 
L6 12404     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(24-01-2013)

Nifty slipped and again moved into next support range(6000-6020) but without any selling pattern formation at higher levels today and firstly valid break out of 6000-6020 will be watched tomorrow for deeper correction confirmation below 6000 or sideways trend above 6020.

Mid-session Outlook-2(24-01-2013)

Firstly more than 1 hour slipping and after that 2 hours lower levels good supports between 6000-6020 as well as consolidations also between 6019-6033 today therefore possibility of again moving into sideways trend between 6000-6100 because today supports above 6000 and previous sessions good selling below 6100.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade within 6000-6068 and prepare for next moves. Let market prepare for next decisive moves then will be updated according to conclusions from intraday charts patterns formations and till then Nifty will be understood range bound between 6000-6100. 

Mid-session Outlook(24-01-2013)

Although down moves were expected after some more intraday selling but weakness deepened immediately after opening due to negative news from rating agencies and Nifty traded 2 hours between next support range(6000-6020). As sentiment turned depressed and whole market turns Bearish in such mood therefore up moves are being seen after lower levels good supports but again down moves after short covering can not be ruled out.

Expected that Nifty will trade now within 6000-6068,possibility of slipping below 6000 can not be ruled out and view will be Bullish only after complete consolidations and sustaining above 6100.

Post-open Outlook(24-01-2013)

As yesterday last half hour surge was without any lower level consolidations and only a part of Bear market volatility therefore Indian markets slipped immediate after opening and it is weakness indication.

Finally Big Crrection after sideways Market

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-3 continuation(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 on 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3(5815.35 on 05-10-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5548.35 on 20-11-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-3 continuation begun from 4770.35 and now its Sub Wave-5 is contimued with above mentioned 2 Bearish formations as well as indicators are showing negative divergence also therefore Indian markets are mature for that correction which will correct;-

1- Minimum 38.2% of Whole Wave-3 up move from 4770.35.
2- Sub Wave-5 started from 5548.35 and it will be completely corrected.

Its detailed analysis have already been updated in following topics,Just click following topic link and understand the calculation of Wave-3 targets:-


Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6052-6069
2- Support at 5021
3- Strong recovery in last half hour.
4- Whole day actual trading between 5021-6069 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

High volatility through firstly selling and strong recovery in last half hour after getting support at 5021. Whole day trading within that most crucial range(5020-6068) about which we told many times on 23-01-2013 and reacted in following manner:-


"Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6020-6068"

Firstly just watch the accuracy of our levels that Nifty traded between 6021.15-6069.80 today

Short term correction was expected and it was seen also but as soon as we saw consolidation from last 1 hour intraday charts then we cover our all shorting positions,its live proof is that we posted our Put Option covering message at  02:48 PM

We covered NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000) at Rs 28/- and that is now trading at Rs 16/-

6020 Was told many times today and Nifty reversed from 6021.15 and it is Short term correction completion strong indication.


Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Daily Charts are suggesting that Indian markets are at the verge of Big correction and market is preparing also for it through above mentioned formation of 2 Bearish formations near the top of on going rally. Immediate Resistance and supports are as follows:-

1- Resistances between 6068-6100
2- Supports between 6000-6020

As volatility remains high in selling markets therefore last half hour surge on 23-01-2013 will only mean Short term correction completion and any Bullish move will be considered only after completely sustaining above 6100. Although finally deeper correction will be seen in Intermediate term but market will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6000-6100 because strong resistances and supports within this range.

Under whatsoever Bullish or Bearish sentiment but Nifty will firstly trade between 6000-6100 in the coming session and prepare for next moves,its valid break out will give following conclusions:-

1- Above 6100 will mean slow up moves maxinun upto 6331.
2- Below 6000 will mean sharp down moves with deeper correction possibility.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 23-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII23-Jan-20133525.592722.97802.62

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII23-Jan-2013952.281804.61-852.33

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 23-Jan-2013


Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(23-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Many Indices closed in Red including Midcap and Smallcap.
3- Bullish Hammer Candle formation after lower levels good recovery.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.13
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.05
Nifty P/E Ratio(23-Jan-2013):18.23

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,014
BSE Declines : 1,897 
NSE Advances :   472 
NSE Declines : 1,255

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -9,150(-1.03%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)- -23,050(-0.31%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -47,250(-3.90%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  383,300(4.78%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -349,250(-9.02%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)- -483,850(-5.50%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)- -71,100(-1.00%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)- -267,550(-7.95%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,026.61(45.04 Points & 0.23%)
Nifty- closed at 6,054.30(5.80 Points & 0.10%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,430.00(-74.75 Points & -0.88%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,713.90(-46.25 Points & -1.23%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6123
R2 6096
R1 6075
Avg 6048
S1 6027
S2 6000
S3 5979

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6102     Trgt 2 
H5 6091     Trgt 1
H4 6080     Long breakout 
H3 6067     Go Short 
H2 6062
H1 6058
L1 6049
L2 6045
L3 6040     Long 
L4 6027     Short Breakout 
L5 6016     Trgt 1 
L6 6005     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6140
R2 6109
R1 6089
Avg 6058
S1 6038
S2 6007
S3 5987

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6120     Trgt 2 
H5 6108     Trgt 1
H4 6097     Long breakout 
H3 6083     Go Short 
H2 6078
H1 6073
L1 6064
L2 6059
L3 6054     Long 
L4 6040     Short Breakout 
L5 6029     Trgt 1 
L6 6017     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 24-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12973
R2 12851
R1 12759
Avg 12637
S1 12545
S2 12423
S3 12331

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12884     Trgt 2 
H5 12835     Trgt 1
H4 12785     Long breakout 
H3 12726     Go Short 
H2 12707
H1 12687
L1 12648
L2 12628
L3 12609     Long 
L4 12550     Short Breakout 
L5 12500     Trgt 1 
L6 12451     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(23-01-2013)

Live Proofs of Our Accuracy

Following line was told at 08:15 AM today in Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-01-2013):-

"Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6020-6068"

Firstly just watch the accuracy of our levels that Nifty traded between 6021.15-6069.80 today

Short term correction was expected and it was seen also but as soon as we saw consolidation from last 1 hour intraday charts then we cover our all shorting positions,its live proof is that we posted our Put Option covering message at  02:48 PM

We covered NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000) at Rs 28/- and that is now trading at Rs 16/-

6020 Was told many times today and Nifty reversed from 6021.15 and it is Short term correction completion strong indication.

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Covering

NIFTY-Put Option(6000)-Positional Bought on 18-01-2013-Cover immediately(Nifty moved down 50 points after our call but premium not increased)-CMP-28(Lalit39)

Mid-session Outlook-2(23-01-2013)

Although sharp fall at 01:13 PM but when Indian markets were trading near higher levels then we told following line at 11:30 AM today:-

Emergence of selling formations

That Short Term correction is being seen about which we are continuously telling for the last 3 days and its continuation is expected as well.

Mid-session Outlook(23-01-2013)

Emergence of selling formations and confirmation are also required through trading ranges valid break out which have already been updated in previous Outlook.

Post-open Outlook(23-01-2013)

As last 2 hours fall of yesterday did not showed required force therefore follow up selling and valid break down of 6020 should be firstly watched for next down moves confirmations. Good selling between 6068-6100 in previous 3 sessions and complete consolidation is required within and below this range foe a decisive up move above 6100. Although most Asian markets are in Red but Indian markets are positive between 6057-6069 since opening today and it is first signal of strength. Indian markets are preparing for next trend within this range and valid break out of this range will be next moves 1st indication.

We never guess and whatsoever charts suggest,we update according to intraday charts formations . As no confirmation yet after small slipping from intraday higher levels and minor support also seen at lower level therefore valid break out should be firstly watched:-

1- 6057-6069(For next moves first indication)
2- 6020-6100(For deeper correction or rally continuation after short term correction completion}

Let market prepare and intraday start to show built in technical positions then will be updated accordingly.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(23-01-2013)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1-First 3 hours selling between 6085-6100
2- Whole day actual trading between 6043-6100 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Indian markets up on 18 Jan and 19 Jan but on the back of positive news flow and intraday charts also showed selling patterns therefore we told following lines:-

1-On 20-01-2013 in Down Moves after Positive Weekly Opening:-

1-"As above expectations RIL Quarterly results declaration after trading hours on 18-01-2013 therefore positive opening will be seen on 21-01-2013 but expected that Nifty will not sustain at higher levels"

Although low formation at 6040.50 on 22-01-2013 but it was predicted well before and told following lines on 21-01-2013 in "Short Term correction on Cards":-

1- Nifty will not sustain above 6068
2- will slip below 6048 in the coming sessions.
3- Short Term correction will be seen within 2/3 sessions.

Down moves started after 12:30 PM on 22-01-2013 but when Indian markets were trading near the higher levels then selling was clearly told at 11:51: AM in Mid-session Outlook(22-01-2013):-

1- intraday charts are also selling patterns
2- selling signals in last more than 1 hour trading

Confirm and good selling between 6068-6100 in previous 3 sessions and complete cosolidation is required for any decisive up moves above 6100 and follow up selling will mean sharp fall toward 5960.

Expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next moves between 6020-6068 and break out of this range will give confirmation to deeper correction or yesterday started correction completion.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 22-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII22-Jan-20133514.552468.151046.4

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII22-Jan-20131002.791858.14-855.35

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 22-Jan-2013


Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6147
R2 6124
R1 6086
Avg 6063
S1 6025
S2 6002
S3 5964

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6109     Trgt 2 
H5 6095     Trgt 1
H4 6081     Long breakout 
H3 6064     Go Short 
H2 6059
H1 6053
L1 6042
L2 6036
L3 6031     Long 
L4 6014     Short Breakout 
L5 6000     Trgt 1 
L6 5986     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6150
R2 6129
R1 6095
Avg 6074
S1 6040
S2 6019
S3 5985

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6116     Trgt 2 
H5 6103     Trgt 1
H4 6091     Long breakout 
H3 6076     Go Short 
H2 6071
H1 6066
L1 6055
L2 6050
L3 6045     Long 
L4 6030     Short Breakout 
L5 6018     Trgt 1 
L6 6005     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 23-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12975
R2 12886
R1 12745
Avg 12656
S1 12515
S2 12426
S3 12285

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12834     Trgt 2 
H5 12782     Trgt 1
H4 12730     Long breakout 
H3 12667     Go Short 
H2 12646
H1 12625
L1 12582
L2 12561
L3 12540     Long 
L4 12477     Short Breakout 
L5 12425     Trgt 1 
L6 12373     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(22-01-2013)

When Indian markets were trading near the higher levels today then we told following lines today in Mid-session Outlook:-

1- intraday charts are also selling patterns
2- selling signals in last more than 1 hour trading

Nifty traded at 6043 today and proved accuracy of our prediction yesterday in Short Term correction on Cards:-

1- Nifty will not sustain above 6068
2- will slip below 6048 in the coming sessions.
3- Short Term correction will be seen within 2/3 sessions.

Short Term correction is on and its continuation is expected.

Mid-session Outlook(22-01-2013)

Indicators are showing negative divergence on Daily Charts and without force up moves as well as intraday charts are also selling patterns therefore seems that market is near its top and sharp down moves will be seen after breaking down. Although up moves but not on the back of consolidations and due to positive news flow therefore as per our views distribution is going on and minimum Short Term Correction is expected.

As most Asian markets moved up from lower levels therefore Indian markets also marginally up after flat opening. 22 points trading today between 5979-6001 with selling signals in last more than 1 hour trading. Valid break out of mentioned today trading range should be firstly watched for next immediate moves confirmations.

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Message

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Positional Bought on 18-01-2013-Hold and just wait for covering message.Selling therefore small up after RIL good results(Lalit39)

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 21-Jan-2013


Short Term correction on Cards

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 18 to Jan 21,2013)
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 2 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6068-6082 on 18-01-2013
2- Selling between 6072-6082 on 21-01-2013
3- Selling between 6082-6092 on 21-01-2013
4- 2 Sessions actual trading between 6048-6092 

Conclusions from 2 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Although last more than 1 hour trading near the highs of the day and near the highs of ongoing rally as well but it does not mean that it is supported by lower levels consolidations but last 2 sessions trading is under heated sentiments, firstly due to Strong Asian markets last Friday and today because of good RIL results.

As intraday selling formations seen if last 2 sessions therefore expected that Nifty will not sustain above 6068 and will slip below 6048 in the coming sessions. As per our views selling is continued on the back of positive news flows and let distribution complete then Short Term correction will be seen within 2/3 sessions.

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 21-Jan-2013

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII21-Jan-20133434.622591.66842.96

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII21-Jan-20131014.431904.6-890.17

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(21-Jan-2013)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed in Green.
2- Positive closing after volatile market.
3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Index Options Put Call Ratio: 1.12
Total Options Put Call Ratio: 1.01
Nifty P/E Ratio(21-Jan-2013): 18.34

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1,342
BSE Declines : 1,569
NSE Advances :   668
NSE Declines :   789

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5700 CE(Jan)- -12,050(-1.85%)
Nifty- 5700 PE(Jan)- -153,750(-3.41%)

Nifty- 5800 CE(Jan)- -22,150(-2.44%)
Nifty- 5800 PE(Jan)-  358,650(4.62%)

Nifty- 5900 CE(Jan)- -111,800(-7.47%)
Nifty- 5900 PE(Jan)-  101,350(1.21%)

Nifty- 6000 CE(Jan)- -316,050(-7.84%)
Nifty- 6000 PE(Jan)-  1,119,800(14.04%)

Nifty- 6100 CE(Jan)-  462,600(7.58%)
Nifty- 6100 PE(Jan)-  1,286,100(54.43%)

Closing 

Sensex- closed at 20,101.82(62.78 Points & 0.31%)
Nifty- closed at 6,082.30(17.90 Points & 0.30%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 8,601.10(9.75 Points & 0.11%)
CNX Smallcap- closed at 3,800.50(16.85 Points & 0.45%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-01-2013

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 6124
R2 6109
R1 6095
Avg 6080
S1 6066
S2 6051
S3 6037

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 6111     Trgt 2 
H5 6104     Trgt 1
H4 6097     Long breakout 
H3 6089     Go Short 
H2 6087
H1 6084
L1 6079
L2 6076
L3 6074     Long 
L4 6066     Short Breakout 
L5 6059     Trgt 1 
L6 6052     Trgt 2

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-01-2013

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 6149
R2 6128
R1 6112
Avg 6091
S1 6075
S2 6054
S3 6038

Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 6133     Trgt 2 
H5 6124     Trgt 1
H4 6116     Long breakout 
H3 6106     Go Short 
H2 6102
H1 6099
L1 6092
L2 6089
L3 6085     Long 
L4 6075     Short Breakout 
L5 6067     Trgt 1 
L6 6058     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 22-01-2013

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Levels

R3 12855
R2 12799
R1 12742
Avg 12686
S1 12629
S2 12573
S3 12516

Bank Nifty(Jan Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 12799     Trgt 2 
H5 12773     Trgt 1
H4 12748     Long breakout 
H3 12717     Go Short 
H2 12706
H1 12696
L1 12675
L2 12665
L3 12654     Long 
L4 12623     Short Breakout 
L5 12598     Trgt 1 
L6 12572     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(21-01-2013)

Although selling was seen in first 3 hours but sharp up moves were also seen and Nifty traded at 6094 also. As sentiment is heated today due to good RIL results last Friday therefore today sharp surge may be a part of intraday volatility also. Selling was seen between 6075-5080 today and if Nifty sustains above 6080 then more up moves will be considered and correction confirmation will be below 6048.

Mid-session Outlook(21-01-2013)

Intraday selling patterns and Bearish lower top formations as well therefore again development of minimum very short term down moves possibility today.

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Message

NIFTY-Jan Put Option(6000)-Bought on 18-01-2013-Market will be volatile but will be finally down.Hold and cover after my covering message(Lalit39)

Down Moves after Positive Weekly Opening

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 21 to Jan 25,2013)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Jan-2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 6068-6082
2- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
3- Whole day actual trading between 6048-6082 

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although whole day down moves in Bullish falling channel but good selling seen therefore view will not be Bullish despite Green closing and whole day trading patterns are suggesting that finally market should move down below the lowest of the day(6048)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jan 02 to Jan 18,2013):-
Just click on chart for its enlarged view
Technical Patterns and Formations in last 13 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 6000-6026
2- Consolidation between 5940-5970
3- consolidation between 6001-6017 on 17-01-2013
4- Selling between 6040-6052 on 17-01-2013
5- Selling between 6068-6082 on 18-01-2013
6- 13 Sessions actual trading between 5940-6082 

Conclusions from 13 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Firstly 9 sessions trading between 5940-6026 Consolidation at lower levels but equally good selling also at higher levels also and range broken out on 15-01-2013 but slipped again below 6026 after higher levels selling on 16-01-2013.  Although 9 sessions trading range broken out on 17-01-2013 but again selling seen on 18-01-2013.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Broader trends have already been updated in following topics in previous week and no significant change in technical till now therefore not being repeated. Just click following links and understand long term trend,Indicators analysis,next correction possibilities and Waves structure:-

Market Cautious after Indo-Pak Cross Border Firing
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(16-01-2013)

As above expectations RIL Quarterly results declaration after trading hours on 18-01-2013 therefore positive opening will be seen on 21-01-2013 but expected that Nifty will not sustain at higher levels.

9 sessions trading range(5940-6026) broken out but lacking required force and selling development at higher levels therefore expected that Nifty will reverse into 9 sessions trading range and again prepare for next decisive trend in the coming week. Valid break out of 5940-6082 will give following conclusions:-

1- Below 5940 will mean Intermediate term corrcetion.
2- Above 6082 will mean up moves toward maximum up to 6331.