Long Term Trend is at stake & watch
levels for its formation confirmations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Dec 30 to Jan 03,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024
6- Last 6 Sessions trading between 23538-24065
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.4 on 15-09-20235 and from this level "ABC" correction started. Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and from this level impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed after new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv)of Wave-3 begun which completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024. Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this levels which completed at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024. From this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024.
144 Points downward gap(24405-24149) formation on 19-12-2024 and after that long Black Candle formation was seen between 23538-24065 on 20-12-2024. Nifty traded all the 4 sessions of previous week within the range of this Candle and last 6 trading was also within the range of this Candle which means that Nifty is preparing for next bigger moves between 23538-24065 for the last 6 sessions. As 84 points gap(24065-24149) is still lying above the highest of last 6 sessions trading range(23538-24065) and this gap is immediate resistance of Nifty as well as until this gap will not be filled up through Nifty moving above 24149 till then any up move will not be seen therefore firstly filling of this gap should be watched for any upward move beginning confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising above Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 38.24 & %D(3)- 27.02.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- -286.09 & EXP(9)- 122.38 & Divergence- -408.47
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising above Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing Short Term upward moves beginning stronger signals.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is signalling Downward Trend formation and suggesting more downward moves beginning possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23726
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24267
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24296
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24642
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23861
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Nifty is trading between Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA for the last more than 3 weeks. Firstly Nifty faced resistance after 8 sessions hovering around 55-Day SMA and from this level moved down 1100 points sharply as well as now hovering around 200-Day SMA for the last 6 sessions. Short and Intermediate Term Trends are down and now Long Term Trend is at stake as well as finally sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA will confirm its next trend formations and resultant that sided bigger moves beginning which should be watched for its confirmations in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(27-Dec-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Dec-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 23817-23856
2- Sharp up
3- Selling between 23906-23938
4- Down moves with upward corrections
5- Mixed Patterns formation in last 3 hours between 23803-23872
6- Whole day actual trading between 23801-23938
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As firstly consolidation after positive opening in first hour therefore after that sharp up moves were seen but higher levels selling developed hence could not sustained at higher levels and downward moves begun. Although firstly down moves were with upward corrections which is a intraday selling pattern but lower levels Mixed Patterns formation were seen in last 3 hours between 23803-23872 therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this trading range.As finally sustaining beyond this trading range will generate first strong signal of next immediate decisive moves beginning therefore it should be firstly watched in the next week for its confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at stake.
2- Intermediate Term trend is down.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
"ABC" correction which started after impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 is in continuation through its corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent bottom formations at 23537.30 on 20-12-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is signalling upward moves beginning possibility but another Short Term indicator MACD is showing downward Trend formation also therefore it will be concluded from Short Term indicators analysis that finally downward moves will be seen after some upward moves.
As Nifty is trading for the last 6 sessions between 23538-24065 and hovered around Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 23861) also during these moves therefore it is confirm that now Long Term Trend is at stake and finally valid break out direction of this last 6 sessions trading range will confirm Long Term Trend formations and one sided bigger moves beginning according to its break out direction. Immediate supports and resistances of Nifty are as follows which should be watched one by one for fresh signals of Long Term Trend formation confirmation:-
Next supports in last 6 sessions trading range
1- 23706-23773
2- 23648-23708
3- 23298-23337
Next resistances in last 6 sessions trading range
1- 23892-24065
2- Gap(24066-24149)
3- 24204-24266