Finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 25027) will confirm Trump's 25% tariff decision impact on Indian economy and Stock Markets

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly

Outlook(Aug 04 to Aug 08,2025)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Aug-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.

2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.

3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.

4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.

5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.

6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.  

7- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning. 

8- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.

9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.

10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.

11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning from this level.

12- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formations at 25669.30 on 30-06-2025.

13- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 24535.00 on 01-08-2025. 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and from this level Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun. Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and corrective Wave-2 started from this level which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 begun from this level.

Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-2023 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B begun from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this level.

Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this levels which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. From this level corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which completed at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and Wave-(v) of Wave-3 begun from this level. Now impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formations at 25669.30 on 30-06-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction started from this levels which is also in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24535.00 on 01-08-2025 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD charts.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Aug-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing just above Over sold zone

2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 29.34 & %D(3)- 31.43.

3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.

4- MACD(26,12)- -265.39 & EXP(9)- -214.35 & Divergence- -51.04

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Stochastic & MACD)

Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-

1- As in Stochastic indicator its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing just above Over sold zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is not showing signals of any side immediate decisive moves beginning. Lets its one sided clear intersection happen then that side decisive one sided Short Term moves will be seen in the coming week.

2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator has shown downward trend formation and resultant on going Short Term correction continuation possibility also.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (01-Aug-2025):-

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Averages:-

1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24738(Very Short Term Trend decider) 

2- 21-Day SMA is today at 25093(Short Term Trend decider) 

3- 55-Day SMA is today at 25027(Intermediate Term Trend decider) 

4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24388

5- 200-Day SMA is today at 24050(Long Term Trend decider) 

 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Averages)

As Nifty has sustained below Very Short Term and Short Term Trends deciders 5-Day and 21-Day SMAs last Friday therefore these 2 Trends are clearly down. Although Intermediate Term Trend is now at stake but its turning down possibility has also increased because Nifty is continuously hovering around its decider 55-Day SMA for the last 14 sessions and also closed below it in the last 7 sessions. Long Term Trend is definitely up because Nifty has closed well above its trends decider 200-Day SMAs last Friday. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

(01-Aug-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Aug-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 24675-24720

2- Upward moves

3- Selling between 24741-24784

4- Downward moves

5- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

6- Sharp fall

7- Whole day trading between 24535-24784

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although negative opening but firstly consolidation developed therefore upward moves were seen in first hour. As higher levels selling was seen therefore downward moves also developed in next hour.

As in whole Mid-Session Downward moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore upward moves are firstly expected in the beginning of next week towards last Friday selling range(24741-24784) despite last Friday closing was at the lowest of the day after sharp fall in last half hour.

Conclusions(After putting

all studies together)

1- Very Short Term Trend is down.

2- Short Term Trend is down.

3- Intermediate Term Trend is at stake.

4- Long Term Trend is up.

Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous waves structure completion at this level. Its impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed after new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and from this level corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction started of which Wave-C completed at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 started from this level. Although now impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formations at 25669.30 on 30-06-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction begun from this levels which is also in continuation with recent bottom formations at 24535.00 on 01-08-2025 and no indication of its completion also on EOD and intraday charts.

Although Long Term Trend is up but Short Term Trend is down. As Intermediate Term Trend is now at stake therefore firstly sustaining beyond its decider 55-Day SMA(today at 25027) should be watched in the coming week because its will confirm next one sided moves beginning in the next 3 Weeks to 3 Months.

As Short Term indicator Stochastic is not suggesting any side immediate decisive moves beginning signals and it will be decided according to %K(5) line intersection of %D(3) line therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week. Although another Short Term indicator MACD is showing more downward moves possibility but firstly next signals from Stochastic indicator should be watched because that will generate immediate decive moves according its lines intersection direction.

Last 2 sessions downward moves were the immediate reaction of Trump's 25% tariff imposing on India decision and finally sustaining beyond Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 25027) should be watched for its final conclusion of Trump's 25% tariff decision impact on Indian economy and Stock Markets.

Watch Levels after Trump's 25% tariffs 

imposing decision led high Volatility

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market

Outlook(01-08-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (31-Jul-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 24635-24722

2- Up moves with downward corrections

3- Down moves with upward corrections

4- Whole day trading between 24635-24956

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As US President Donald Trump's decision to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from India therefore:-

 

1- Firstly downward moves were seen after 129 points gap down opening and 

2- Nifty traded 220 points down also in first 3 minutes but 

3- lower levels consolidation was seen in first 2 hours and after that upward moves were seen with downward corrections which is a intraday consolidation pattern also 

4- therefore Nifty traded 101 points up after recovering all initial losses. 

Down moves with upward corrections also developed in last 2 hours which is a intraday selling pattern therefore:-

1- Nifty slipped 200 points from higher levels in less than last 2 hours and 

2- finally Nifty closed 86.70 down also. 

As Trump's decision led high intraday volatility today and one sided intraday positions formations were not seen therefore finally sustaining beyond today trading range(24635-24956) should be watched in the coming sessions for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Finally sustaining beyond 24765-24902

 will confirm next intraday decisive

 moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market

Outlook(31-07-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Jul-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day trading with mixed Patterns formation between 24784-24885

2- Whole day trading between 24771-24902

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told at 11:41 PM on 29-07-2025 in "Finally sustaining beyond 24765-24879 will confirm next one sided decisive moves beginning":-

expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about 24765-24879 to prepare for next decisive moves beginning

As was told 100% same happened and Nifty traded whole day within and near about 24765-24879 as well as closed within this range at 24855.05 today.

Although firstly some upward moves after good opening but intraday selling developed therefore downward moves begun and Nifty traded 49 down also within first 2 hours. As upward moves started after lower levels some consolidation and Nifty recovered 131 points in next one hour as well as traded in green also but higher levels selling was also seen in the next 4 hours also. 

As both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling patterns were seen therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 24771-2490 therefore finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

 Finally sustaining beyond 24765-24879

 will confirm next one sided

 decisive moves beginning

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis &

Market Outlook(30-07-2025)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Jul-2025):-

Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 24599-24731

2- Upward moves in Mid-Session

3- Consolidation between 24765-24796

4- Upward moves in last half hour

5- Whole day trading between 24599-24847

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly some downward moves after 71 points weaker opening but lower levels consolidation developed in first 4 hours therefore upward moves were seen in Mid-Session. As again some consolidation developed in last hours therefore again upward moves were seen in last half hour.

Immediate resistances are between 24802-24879 and Nifty traded last hours within this range as well as consolidated also just below it between 24765-24796. As more consolidation is required to sustain above 24879 therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade within and near about 24765-24879 to prepare for next decisive moves beginning hence firstly sustaining beyond this  range should be watched tomorrow for next decisive one sided moves beginning confirmations. 

As out of station therefore unable to post 

today(28-07-2025) Outlook.