Strong Rally after  'Pennant Pattern'  break out confirmation through sustaining  above last Resistance

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Feb 02 to Feb 05,2015)

 Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-i of Wave-3 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-i of Wave-3(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-3(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-3(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015

Waves structure of Wave-v of Wave-3

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-iv of Wave-3 completion at 7961.35 on 17-12-2014 and beginning of Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3)
2- Wave-1 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8445.60 on 05-01-2015 
3- Wave-2 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8065.45 on 07-01-2015
4- Wave-3 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8996.60 on 30-01-2015
5- Wave-4 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8470.50 on 10-02-2015
6- Sub Wave-1 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8913.45 on 19-02-2015 
7- Sub Wave-2 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 completion at 8669.45 on 26-02-2015 
8- Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8,941.10 on 26-02-2015

'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015 

Nifty-EOD Chart (28-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 'Pennant Pattern'formations in last 22 Sessions Correction
2- 'Pennant Pattern'break out on 28-02-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

All trends are up and strong recovery from lower levels after Union Budget-2015 amid high volatility and closing above 'Pennant Pattern'which was formed in last 22 Sessions and it is a strong indication of next up moves after Budget. Following resistances were updated on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-

1- Resistances between 8820-8852
2- Resistances between 8918-8936

Nifty faced resistance between 2nd resistance(8918-8936) and closed just below it at 8,901.85 after highest formation just above it at 8,941.10 on Union Budget-2015 day. As 'Pennant Pattern break out therefore strong signal of fresh Up moves but sustaining above mentioned resistance(8936) should also be firstly watched. Once sustaining above it will mean fresh rally beginning because it is last resistance of Nifty and should be firstly watched in the beginning of next week.

Sub Wave-3 of Wave-5 of Wave-v of Wave-3 continuation with recent top formation at 8941.10 on 28-02-2015 and its Sub Wave-5 is still left for up moves above 8941.10. Although negative reactions on Budget are also coming but Short Term Indicators have started to show positive moves signals. As good selling has not seen yet and strong recovery was also seen after lower levels consolidation on Budget day therefore expected that fresh rally will be seen with new life time high formation in next week but follow up consolidation with sustaining above last resistance (8936) is must because that will be 'Pennant Pattern'  break out confirmation also.

Rally continuation after Budget despite High Volatility
Technical Analysis and Market Outlook
(28-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Whole day up moves with intraday correction and in Expanding Channel 
2- Whole day actual trading between 8717-8856

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following conclusive lines were told yesterday in "Fresh Rally towards Life Time high after Correction Completion Today":-

1- Although today closing near the lowest of the day after sharp down moves but expected that Nifty will not slip below today lowest(8669.45)  
2- fresh rally towards life time high will be seen from tomorrow after completion of correction today 

As was told yesterday 100% same happened today in following manner:-

1- Today lowest is at 8717.45 and Nifty could not slip below yesterday lowest(8669.45) 
2- Fresh strong rally was seen today and Nifty closed 160.75 points up.

Following topic was updated:-

1- On 21-02-2015- Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations
2- On 23-02-2015- Fresh Rally Immediate before or after Budget but after complete consolidation

We told in all the previous topics for fresh Rally immediate before and its was seen one day before Budget today and Post Budget rally will be seen in the coming sessions . As no selling patterns were seen today and whole day up moves of today were with intraday correction therefore next rally will be seen after break out(above 8,856.95)of Expanding Channel which was formed today.

Just keep in mind following lines which we told yesterday in "Fresh Rally towards Life Time high after Correction Completion Today":- 

no question mark on Modi Budget-2015(specially I am telling Modi Budget) and all that will be done which is required for the growth of Indian economy and Corporate sector therefore undoubtedly fresh rally will be seen after Budget despite whatsoever volatility in the coming 1/2 sessions. 

Economic Survey: FY16 GDP growth seen 8.1-8.5%

Mid-session Outlook(27-02-2015)

The Economic Survey has projected a growth of 8.1- 8.5 percent for FY16, and said there is scope for big reforms. The Survey said a double digit growth trajectory was now a possibility, also because inflation was showing a declining trend.

As such shining picture therefore fresh rally immediately after Economic Survey and its continuation is expected while in previous years most of the times sharp down moves were seen in Indian markets after Economic Survey.

NIFTY-Mar Call Option(9000)-Positional Buying of 26-02-2015-Covering

NIFTY-Mar CE(9000)-Bought on 26-02-2015-Cover immediately because market will be volatile after economic survey after 11 AM-CMP-93(Lalit39)

Fresh Rally towards Life Time high after Correction Completion Today

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(27-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8733-8758
2- Consolidation and supports between 8684-8694 
3- Whole day actual trading between 8684-8758

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although sharp down moves started after 12:30 PM but when Nifty was trading near the higher levels of the day then we understood that selling is going on and updated following lines:-

1- At 10:59 AM in Post-open Outlook(26-02-2015):- Intrady charts are showing selling patterns today before railway Budget
2- At 11:16 AM in Mid-session Outlook(25-02-2015):- 

a-Intrady charts of first 2 hours are showing selling patterns
b-lower levels good supports above 8727 in previous sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8727 should be watched today and volatility may be high also.

Confirm selling between 8733-8758 today therefore consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above 8758 and first 1/2 hours intraday charts of tomorrow will be firstly watched for the confirmation of follow up consolidation development. As lower levels supports with consolidation were also seen in last 2 hours today therefore emergence of first signal of some up moves but following resistances are lying at higher levels therefore complete follow up consolidation is also required for fresh decisive up moves after new life time high formations:-

1- 8733-8758   
2- 8808-8820
3- 8845-8869
4- 8880-8894
5- 8918-8936

As lower levels consolidations today therefore Pull Back rally is firstly expected in the coming sessions. As per our view no question mark on Modi Budget-2015(specially I am telling Modi Budget) and all that will be done which is required for the growth of Indian economy and Corporate sector therefore undoubtedly fresh rally will be seen after Budget despite whatsoever volatility in the coming 1/2 sessions. 

Although today closing near the lowest of the day after sharp down moves but expected that Nifty will not slip below today lowest(8669.45) and fresh rally towards life time high will be seen from tomorrow after completion of correction today.

NIFTY-Mar F&O-Positional-Buying Trade

NIFTY-Mar CE(9000)-Buy-Positional-SL-64 & TGT-119-CMP-90(Lalit39)

Mid-session Outlook(25-02-2015)

Intrady charts of first 2 hours are showing selling patterns but lower levels good supports above 8727 in previous sessions therefore firstly sustaining beyond 8727 should be watched today and volatility may be high also.

Post-open Outlook(26-02-2015)

Intrady charts are showing selling patterns today before railway Budget

Finally strong rally towards 9169 after Budget-2015

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(26-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Almost 5 hours trading between 8805-8840 with mixed patterns formations.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel in 5 hours.
3- Minor selling patterns between 8808-8820
4- Bullish Falling Wedge formations after sharp down.
5- Consolidation patterns formations in last hour between 8752-8773
6- Whole day actual trading between 8752-8840

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told for Pre-Budget Indian markets in previous Outlooks:-

1- Fresh rally will begin immediate before or after Budget
2- Almost daily told that Sentiments is boiling,heated and extremely high expectations from Budget therefore Volatility will remain high in the coming sessions.
3- Short Term Oscillators are overbought therefore its cooling down is must as well as market has prepare and form positions for post Budget big moves.
4- Panic bottoms formations will be seen
5- Told on 21-02-2015 that- Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793 but until Nifty will not sustain below it till then View will not be Bearish because many time Supports are broken down under consolidation process.
6- Told on 24-02-2015 that- Firstly sustaining beyond 8737-8787 should be  watched for next trend strong indication.

As was updated in the Outlooks of all previous 4/5 sessions 100% same happened and Indian markets traded in the same manner as was updated well in advance.

Importance of 8737-8787 was updated yesterday and Nifty closed within this range at 8767.25 today. Almost 5 hours trading above this range between 8805-8840 and this range was broken down sharply but view will not be bearish because:-

1- sentiment is heated due to extremely high expectations from Budget and sharp down was for cutting the positions of small traders today.
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel(Bullish patterns) were also seen between 8805-8840 for cutting the positions of small traders today. 

Long and Intermediate Term Trends are up and Short Term Trend is sideways between 8571-8996 for the last 18 sessions and Budget day will 21 sessions(after 26th and 27th Feb.) which is a Fibonacci Number. As market are tend to take decisive moves at Fibonacci numbers therefore blasting one sided moves will be seen on Budget day.

Lower levels consolidation and supports of last 3 sessions are as follows:-

1- Between 8752-8773 on 25-02-2015 
2- Between 8727-8758 on 24-02-2015
3- Between 8737-8787 on 23-02-2015

As lower levels good supports above 8727 therefore Nifty will not easily sustain below it despite high volatility possibility in the coming sessions. Expected that follow up consolidation will be seen near about or between 8727-8787 and finally strong rally will be seen towards 9169 after Budget-2015.

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Next Trend Strong Indication from 8737-8787

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(25-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Feb-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Most time trading between 8743-8777
2- Lower levels consolidation between 8727-8758
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8727-8800

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following line was told today at 10:29 AM in "Post-open Outlook(24-02-2015):-

1- Bullish Falling Wedge formations between 8737-8787 yesterday and first hour trading within this range today
2-  Nifty is preparing within this range for next moves
3- firstly valid break out of this range should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations. 
4- minor indications of consolidation within this range today also therefore emergence of first signal of fresh up moves

As minor indications of consolidation within 8737-8787 therefore firstly this range broken out above 8787 but could not sustain at higher levels and sharply moved down and could not sustain below 8787 also and moved up in last hour as well as closed between 8737-8787 

We told for high volatility in all previous Outlooks and it was seen today. As technical positions reverses in such volatility therefore sustaining beyond crucial levels should also be given more importance. Bullish Falling Wedge formations between 8737-8787 yesterday and Nifty traded most time within this range between 8743-8777. As no clear trading pattern formation developed amid high volatility today therefore firstly sustaining beyond watched 8737-8787 for next trend first indication.

Following retracement levels are crucial:-  

1- 0.382%-  8,743(Crucial level)(Tested but closing above it today and yesterday)
2- 0.500%1  8,691(Crucial level)
3- 0.618%-  8,639(Crucial level)

Next 2 supports as follows:-

1- Supports between 8736-8751(Tested but closing above it today and yesterday)
2- Supports between 8595-8615

Above supports and retracement levels were updated yesterday also and above mentioned 1st retracement and supports got tested as well as closing above both levels in last 2 sessions. Although selling pattern formation at higher levels today but lower levels good consolidation was also seen today therefore strong indications of supports getting above mentioned 2 levels.

Above mentioned range(8737-8787) becomes most crucial for deciding next trend because:-

1- Bullish Falling Wedge formations within it yesterday.
2- Follow up supports between it today
3- Most time trading within it today

As high expectations from Budget therefore volatility may remain high in the coming sessions and Nifty may move above or below mentioned range(8737-8787) also as happened today but valid break out of this range and finally sustaining beyond this range will be next trend strong indication and should be firstly watched otherwise ours following same view which we updated yesterday:-

Fresh Rally Immediate before or after Budget but after complete consolidation

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Post-open Outlook(24-02-2015)

Bullish Falling Wedge formations between 8737-8787 yesterday and first hour trading within this range today. Nifty is preparing within this range for next moves and firstly valid break out of this range should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations. 

As Bullish pattern formation between 8737-8787 yesterday and minor indications of consolidation within this range today also therefore emergence of first signal of fresh up moves. 

Fresh Rally Immediate before or after Budget but after complete consolidation

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook

(24-02-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Feb-2015):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 8845-8869(Immediate Resistances)
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel near the higher levels
3- Last hours down moves with Bullish Falling Wedge formations.
4- Whole day actual trading between 8737-8869

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-

1- Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793 
2-  Indian markets are well poised for Post Budget rally after high volatility and panic bottoms formations.

As was told 2 days before 100% same happened today in following manner:-

1- Nifty slipped and closed below 8793
2- Panic  bottom formation after sharp 132 points fall from higher levels.

We "told for Finally Post Budget Rally" and "never told for Pre-Budget Rally" and also told following lines in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations":-

1- Both Feb. Derivative expiry and Union Budget in next week and sentiments will remain boiling as well as market will prepare and form positions for post Budget big moves.
2- post Budget big moves will be decided from coming 2/3 sessions intraday charts patterns formations

As mounting high expectations from Budget therefore sentiment was boiling and its cooling was necessary which was seen today after sharp down and closing near the lower levels of the day and it was necessary also for the beginning of consolidation process. Although sharp down after higher levels but following consolidation patterns were also seen:-

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel near the higher levels
2- Last hours down moves with Bullish Falling Wedge formations at lower levels.

As above consolidation patterns today therefore emergence of minor correction completion signals. Following retracement levels should be firstly watched now for correction completion:-  

[0.618] 8,743(Crucial level)(Tested but closing above it today)
[0.500] 8,691(Crucial level)
[0.382] 8,639(Crucial level)
[0.270] 8,589
[0.236] 8,574
[0.130] 8,527

Following supports should also be firstly watched for on going going correction completion:-

1- Supports between 8736-8751
2- Supports between 8595-8615
3- Supports between 8554-8574
4- Supports between 8475-8505

It was a correction day today and it should be kept in mind that sentiment is boiling due to extremely high expectations from Budget therefore firstly correction completion confirmation is must though consolidation and base formations at lower levels. As Bullish Falling Wedge formations in last hour today therefore emergence of first consolidation signal but more consolidation is required for fresh rally after correction completion. 

Although Govt approved ordinance to ease Land Acquisition Act to push reforms through "land reform ordinance 2014" and it will be tabled in Parliament tomorrow but its opposition is  mounting high and final stand of Union Govt on it passing will decide market sentiments. As confusion on it therefore volatility will remain high also in the coming sessions but expected that Govt. will not compromise and Land Acquisition Bill will be passed after minor changes as well as finally market sentiment will not hamper.

Expected that fresh rally will begin immediate before or after Budget but follow up complete consolidation and correction completion confirmation is must. Let market prepare for fresh rally then will be understood from coming sessions intraday charts patterns analysis and will also be updated in the same manner as being done for the last more than 4 years. 

Mid-session Outlook(23-02-2015)

Following line was told on 21-02-2015 in "Finally Post Budget Rally after follow up consolidations"

Nifty will firstly trade within or near about 8793-8913 amid high volatility and may slip also below 8793 

Possibility of slipping below 8793 was clearly told and today lowest at this moment is at 8761.

As sentiment is boiling due to high expectations from Budget therefore volatility will remain high and sustaining below 8793 should be firstly watched for any deeper correction confirmations.