Correction Continuation towards next 7 Supports

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Nov 02 to Nov 06,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5118.85 on 28-08-2013(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(6415.25 on 09-12-2013)
3- Wave-2(5933.30 on 04-02-2014)
4- Wave-3(8626.95 on 04-12-2014)
5- Wave-4(7961.35 on 17-12-2014)
6- Wave-5(9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and 'ABC' correction beginning)
7- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
8- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
9- Wave-C(7539.50 on 08-09-2015)
10- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
11- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015

Waves structure of correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-5 completion at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 and Wave-A of 'ABC' correction beginning after life time high formation)
2- Wave-A(7940.30 on 12-06-2015)
3- Wave-B(8654.75 on 23-07-2015)
4- Pull Back Rally completion(8336.30 on 26-10-2015)
5- Pull Back Rally correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015
6- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) on 16-10-2015

Waves structure of Pull Back Rally

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5(8336.30 on 26-10-2015 and correction beginning)
7- correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015

Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction

Nifty-EOD Chart (30-Oct-2015):-

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Last 17 sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 05 to Oct 30,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 17 Sessions intraday charts

1- 27 Sessions trading range forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015
2- 15 sessions trading between 8090-8336 from 06-10-2015 to 29-10-2015
3- 15 Sessions trading range broken down on 30-10-2015

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

Trends of Nifty are as follows:-

1- Short Term Trend turned down in on going correction
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up
3- Long Term Trend is sideways after Nifty hovering around its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) for last 17 sessions.  

That Wave-1 which started on 28-08-2013 from 5118.85 gained 4000 points and completed at 9119.20 on 04-03-2015 after many times new life times high formation. 'ABC' correction started which has given its completion signals at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 from where Pull Back Rally begun. Now its correction is on with recent bottom formation at 8044.40 on 30-10-2015 and till now no indication of its completion. Fibonacci Retracement levels of on going correction are as follows:-

1- 13.0%- 8232(corrected)
2- 23.6%- 8148(corrected)
3- 27.0%- 8121(corrected)
4- 38.2%- 8031(Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 7937(Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 7843(Crucial)
7- 70.7%- 7772
8- 76.4%- 7727
9- 78.6%- 7710
10-88.6%- 7630

Nifty traded 27 Sessions between 7540-8092 from 24-08-2015 to 01-10-2015 and this range was forcefully broken out on 05-10-2015 which was a strong signal of 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015. Nifty remained sideways between 8090-8336 in 15 sessions and also closed 7 days above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8185) which was almost confirmation of strong rally after all trend turning up but this range was also forcefully broken down last Friday and Nifty closed within 27 sessions range at 8065.80 . It is clear that 2 sideways trading ranges of last 44 sessions are giving lower levels supports and  higher levels resistances also therefore Nifty will be understood sideways within it between 7540-8336.

As downward momentum is on after 15 sessions range breaking down last Friday therefore correction continuation will be seen according to above mentioned Fibonacci Retracement levels towards following supports in next week:-

1- Supports between 8033-8067
2- Supports between 7940-7971
3- Supports between 7874-7908
4- Supports between 7837-7865
5- Supports between 7804-7830
6- Supports between 7695-7726
7- Supports between 7545-7582

Bearish Engulfing weekly candle formation last Friday and no signal of correction completion yet therefore until complete consolidation will not develop near about above mention levels till then correction completion will not be considered and much deeper correction will be seen only after failing to get supports at above levels.

Firstly Watch valid break out Strong Supports Range

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(30-10-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (29-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 3 Hours Mixed Patterns formations between 8134-8159
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Whole day actual trading between 8098-8159

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

When Dow Jones was trading 105 points up and most European markets were also are more than 1% up as well as FOMC announcements were due at 11:30 PM(IST) yesterday then we posted Bearish views in following words at 09:21 PM in "Firstly Watch 8090 for deeper correction confirmations":-

1- still we are expecting some more down moves in Indian markets 
2- strong supports of Nifty are between 8090-8124
3- Firstly watch valid break down of 8090 for deeper correction confirmations 
4- some more down moves possibilities tomorrow

As was above projected yesterday all that proved 100% accurate in in following manner today;-

1- Whole day down moves were seen and once Nifty was down 73 points as well as closed after loosing 59.45 points today.
2- Strong supports were told between 8090-8124 and Nifty got supports within this range at 8098 as well as closed between this range at 8111.75 today.

Although whole day down moves and closing near the lower levels of the day today but as such selling patterns were not seen and first 3 hours trading was with Mixed Patterns formations between 8134-8159. As down moves in Bullish Falling Channel formations also in last hours also today within mentioned strong supports range(8090-8124) therefore its valid break out should be firstly watched in the coming sessions for:-

1- Deeper correction below 8090 because that will be confirmation of failure to sustain above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) also.
2- First signal of on going Short Term Correction completion above 8124. 

Firstly Watch 8090 for deeper correction confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(29-10-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (28-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- More than 3 hours selling between 8188-8209
2- Volatility with lower levels minor supports in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 8132-8209

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Correction/Down moves were projected in following previous topics from 25-10-2015:- 

1- On 25-10-2015 in "Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets":-
2- On 26-10-2015 in "Firstly Watch 8186 for Long Term Trend Confirmations amid Some More Down Moves Possibilities":-

Only correction and down moves told  which proved 100% acurate and Nifty slipped 204 points after 25-10-2015. 

Although strong recovery from lower levels in last hours today but on the back of only minor supports at lower levels therefore until Nifty will not sustain above today highest(8209) after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be considered because good selling at higher levels between 8188-8209 and it will be immediate resistance of Nifty.

Although strong rally in US(Dow 105 points up) and all European(most are more than 1% up) markets at this moment before FOMC announcements today at 11:30 PM (IST) but still we are expecting some more down moves in Indian markets because good selling at higher levels in last 7 sessions. Next strong supports of Nifty are between 8090-8124 therefore more follow up selling is firstly required now for decisive down moves and deeper correction.

Firstly watch valid break down of 8090 for deeper correction confirmations amid some more down moves possibilities tomorrow.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today is not being updated.

Firstly Watch 8186 for Long Term Trend Confirmations amid Some More Down Moves Possibilities 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-10-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours selling patterns formations between 8265-8290
2- Whole day actual trading between 8253-8336

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although blasting Global markets in last 2 sessions due to ECB economic stimulus and Chinese interest rate cuts news but Nifty intraday patterns of previous week were showing selling patterns formations therefore we told following lines on 25-10-2015 in current week analysis topic "Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets":-

Certainly Short Term Correction possibility amid most Bullish news led Global markets is suggesting to watch sustaining beyond following 3 levels one by one:-

1- Last Friday Highest(8328.10)
2- Last Wednesday Highest(8294.40)
3- 200 Day EMA(today at 8186)

As good selling in previous week therefore slipping immediately after gap up strong opening and 4 hours follow up selling patterns formations between 8265-8290 also which is within previous week selling range 8240-8294 therefore previous week resistance ranges have turned stronger and emergence of some more down moves possibilities in the coming session.

Last 6 sessions closing above Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) and its turning up almost confirmations also but above mentioned selling patterns above it therefore sustaining it beyond should also be firstly watched in the coming 2/3 sessions for valid break out confirmations of 200 Day EMA which seems to be at stake after emergence of some more down moves possibilities towards and below it. 

Short Term Correction Possibility amid Most Bullish News led Global Markets

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 26 to Oct 30,2015)

Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 7539.50 on 08-09-2015(Wave-1 beginning after 'ABC' correction completion)
2- Wave-1(8055.00 on 18-09-2015)
3- Wave-2(7691.20 on 29-09-2015)
4- Wave-3(8244.50 on 12-10-2015)
5- Wave-4(8088.60 on 13-10-2015)
6- Wave-5 continuation with recent top formation at 8328.10 on 23-10-2015
7- Long Term Trend turning up almost confirmations after 5 sessions closing above its decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186). 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

Rally beginning after 'ABC' correction completion at 7539.50 on 08-09-2015 and now its continuation with all trends turning up almost confirmations.

Previous 4 sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 19 to Oct 23,2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in last 4 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling between 8240-8260 on 19-10-2015
2- Selling between 8271-8283 on 19-10-2015
3- Selling between 8280-8294 on 20-10-2015
4- Supports between 8230-8258 on 20-10-2015
5- Selling between 8272-8294 on 21-10-2015
6- Selling between 8252-8258 on 21-10-2015
7- Support between 8217-8240 on 21-10-2015
8- First 3 sessions trading between 8217-8294 with good selling and minor supports.
9- Mixed patterns formations on 23-10-2015

Conclusions from 4 Sessions intra day chart analysis

First 3 sessions trading between 8217-8294 with higher levels good selling and minor supports at lower levels therefore strong indications of correction below 3 sessions lowest(8217) but gap up opening was seen on 23-10-2015 after ECB Bullish news led blasting all Global markets.

As Mixed patterns formations on 23-10-2015(detailed analysis is given below) therefore valid break out confirmation of first 3 sessions trading range is still required.

Intra Day Chart Analysis(26-10-2015)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Oct-2015):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Minor selling between 8306-8315
2- Minor selling between 8306-8312
3- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 8281-8328

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis

As ECB points to more economic stimulus therefore Dow Jones's triple century and strong closing of all the European markets on 22-10-2015 and resultant blasting all the Asian markets so gap up opening of Indian markets on 23-10-2015 but gap filled up through slipping below previous sessions highest(8294.40). Although whole day positive zone trading with 0.53% up closing but view will cautious due to following intraday developments:-

1- Indian markets completely under performed Global markets.
2- Minor selling patterns formations.
3- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel

As both buying and selling indications therefore Mixed patterns formations will be understood on 23-10-2015.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) forcefully broken out on 16-10-2015 and last 4 sessions closing above it also therefore strong signals of fresh rally beginning towards and above life time high but for next Short Term Trend view is cautious due to following reasons which are indicating Short Term Correction possibility also:-

1- Short Term indicators turned overbought after previous 30 sessions 788 points rally.
2- 5th Wave of on going Short Term Rally continuation
3- Long Term Trend decider 200 Day EMA(today at 8186) forcefully broken out on 16-10-2015 but after that good intraday selling in next 3 sessions.

As interest-rate cuts in China last Friday therefore strong closing of all European and US markets last Friday and in reactions such strength will be seen in all Asian markets tomorrow therefore strong opening will be seen in Indian markets also. Last Friday strong markets were on the back of ECB economic stimulus news and next Monday surging markets will be Chinese interest rate cuts led but will not be the result of technical positions formations. Except that all the Global markets will have to prepare in next 3 sessions for post FOMC trading on 29-10-2015 which will be Oct Derivative Expiry day also therefore view will be cautious and watchful in following manner:-

1- Sustaining above last 2 sessions highest should be firstly watched next Monday after strong opening due to Chinese interest rate cuts news.
2- As trading on next Tuesday and Wednesday will be news free therefore intraday technical patterns formation will be seen and then final view will be formed accordingly for next trend.

Certainly Short Term Correction possibility amid most Bullish news led Global markets is suggesting to watch sustaining beyond following 3 levels one by one:-

1- Last Friday Highest(8328.10)
2- Last Wednesday Highest(8294.40)
3- 200 Day EMA(today at 8186)