Remain cautious amid Wave-B rally continuation expectations

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 22 to Oct 25,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (18-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective  Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A  completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019
8- Wave-B continuation with recent top formations at 11694.85 on 23-09-2019

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All the trends have turned up after previous week rally which closed at the top of Wave-B last Friday. Next resistances above last Friday highest(11684.70) are between 11936-11976 therefore Wave-B rally continuation towards it will be expected.  

It should be kept in mind that Short Term indicators have also turned overbought after previous week rally and Short Term correction may begin any day therefore remain cautious in next week.

Remain cautious after overbought Short Term indicators 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 3 hours consolidation between 11450-11482
2- Last 3 hours up moves with intraday corrections
3- Whole day actual trading between 11450-11599

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As selling between 11446-11466 yesterday therefore Firstly 3 hours fresh consolidation between 11450-11482 and after that last 3 hours up moves with intraday corrections as well as selling patterns were not seen therefore on going rally continuation will be considered.

Last resistances of post Nirmala Sitaraman Press conference rally are between 11590-11660 and sustaining above 11660 after follow up consolidation will confirm rally towards 12000. As Short Term indicators have also turned overbought and Short Term correction may be seen any day therefore remain cautious also.

11412-11481 will confirm next decisive moves

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(17-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (16-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Selling between 11446-11466
3- Consolidation between 11412-11436
4- Whole day actual trading between 11412-11481

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although closing was near the higher levels of the day after lower levels consolidation but some selling was also seen in Mid-session therefore intraday trading will be understood with Mixed patterns formations and firstly valid break out of Day's trading range(11412-11481) should be watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Rally continuation towards next resistances

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(16-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (15-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Slow up moves after flat opening
2- Consolidation between 11387-11414
3- Volatility between 11422-11462 in last 2 hours
4- Whole day actual trading between 11343-11462

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As Dow Futures was trading in Green and most Asian markets were also trading in positive zone therefore firstly flat opening and after that more than 3 hours continuation slow up moves up tp yesterday highest because selling was seen at these levels yesterday.

Although consolidation between 11387-11414 in Mid-Sessions but higher levels volatility was also seen in last 2 hours therefore fresh consolidation is required near about today highest for on going rally continuation. Next resistances are as follows:-

1- 11486 11510
2- 11521- 11581
3- 11590- 11660 

As clear selling patterns were not seen and consolidation developed also today therefore rally continuation is expected towards above mentioned next resistances in the coning sessions.

Fresh down moves expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(15-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Minor supports at lower levels
2- Selling between 11392-11420
3- Selling between 11353-11378
4- Sharp fall in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 11290-11420

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As positive development in US-China Trade War last Friday therefore Asian markets were blasting today morning resultant positive opening of Indian markets.

Although firstly slipping and getting supports at lower levels but higher levels good selling therefore fresh down moves below today lowest are expected in the coming sessions.

Levels will confirm big moves in next week  

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Oct 14 to Oct 18,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A  completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formations at 11694.85 on 23-09-2019
4- Wave-B correction is on with recent bottom formations at 11090.15 on 09-10-2019
5- Last 6 Sessions sideways trading between 11091-11400

Nifty-Last 6 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Oct 03 to Oct 11,2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 6 Sessions intraday charts

1- Last 6 Sessions trading with lower levels supports,higher levels selling and mixed Patterns formation  
2- 6 Sessions actual trading between 11091-11400 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(11-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up after opening
2- Selling between 11332-11362
3- Selling between 11300-11318
4- Mixed Patterns formation between 11232-11278
5- Whole day actual trading between 11190-11362

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Wave-A of "ABC" correction begun on 03-06-2019 from 12103.00 which completed at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and after that Wave-B started which is in continuation with recent top formations at 11694.85 on 23-09-2019. Now correction of Wave-B is on with recent bottom formations at 11090.15 on 09-10-2019. 

Conclusions from 6 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

As last 6 sessions trading between 11091-11400 with all consolidation,selling and mix patterns formations therefore firstly Nifty has to trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range which will be done in next week and finally sustaining beyond or forceful break out of this range will be next decisive moves confirmations.

Next supports within last 6 sessions range are as follows:- 

1- 11091-11141
2- 11209-11245 

Next resistances within last 6 sessions range are as follows:- 

1- 11300-11318
2- 11332-11362
3- 11362-11391

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time positive zone trading after strong opening but higher levels good selling therefore signals of some weakness in the beginning of next week.

As lower levels Mixed Patterns formation between 11232-11278 therefore silpping below 11232 after follow up selling will be 2nd signal of decisive down moves beginning and confirmation will be after sustaining below immediate support(11209) 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long Term Trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 112270) for the last 7 sessions
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways 
3- Short Term Trend is sideways for the last 6 sessions.

As continuation of Wave-B correction and no signal of its completion yet as well as more down moves are expected in the beginning of next week because intraday charts of last Friday(11-10-2019) are showing higher levels selling therefore firstly sustaining beyond above mentioned supports should be watched next Monday.

Although US markets and all except one European markets closed with more than 1% gains on the back of most positive cues on US-China trade talks but we are not Bullish and still expecting that finally Indian markets will slip in the beginning of next week.

As last 6 Sessions sideways trading between 11091-11400 and finally valid break out of this range will confirm fate of Wave-B therefore it should be firstly watched in next week for next big moves confirmations because above 11400 will signal Wave-B continuation after correction completion and below 11091 will be strong signal of Wave-C formations for slipping below Wave-A lowest(10637.15).

Up moves expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Mixed Patterns formation between 11255-11293
2- Consolidation between 11209-11245 
3- Whole day actual trading between 11209-11293

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As yesterday rally was positive Global cues led and intraday consolidation patterns formations were not seen therefore our view was not Bullish and resultant we updated next resistance levels for rally continuation confirmations.

As no intraday consolidation patterns formations yesterday therefore whole day negative zone trading after weaker opening was seen today. 

Although 0.70% weaker closing today but no intraday selling patterns formations and lower levels consolidation was seen today therefore up moves are expected tomorrow.

As Mixed Patterns formation between 11255-11293 therefore once sustaining above it after follow up consolidation will mean rally continuation towards and above following resistances:-

1- 11306-11317
2- 11346-11391

Next resistances will confirm rally continuation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(10-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Correction continuation in first hour
2- Whole day up moves with minor intraday corrections.
3- Whole day actual trading between 11091-11321

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly correction continuation in first hour but after that whole day up moves were seen because Dow Jones Futures recovered from lower levels and was trading 250 points up at the time of Indian markets closing as well as most European markets were trading strong after positive opening.

As today rally was Global cues led therefore firstly sustaining above next resistances(11346-11391) should be watched for today started rally continuation confirmations.

Firstly correction continuation towards next supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(09-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (07-Oct-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours selling between 11186-11233(Immediate Resistances)
2- Sharp fall in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 11113-11233

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As more than 4 hours selling between 11186-11233 therefore it will be immediate resistance of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain above it after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen above last Monday highest.

As Short Term Correction is on and no signal of its completion yet as well as next supports below last Monday lowest are near 10700 therefore now correction continuation will be considered towards it and if fresh consolidation develops only then a Pull Back rally will be seen towards 11233 because Short Term Indicators have also turned oversold. 

As not feeling well therefore could not update Market Outlooks for the last 3 sessions and will not be able to post for tomorrow(07-10-2019) also but shall positively update Market Outlook of
  09-10-2019.

Up moves expectations towards next resistances

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(01-10-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (30-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 4 hours consolidation between 11391-11440(immediate supports)
2- Mixed Patterns formation in last hour between 11458-11508 
3- Whole day actual trading between 11391-11508

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As lower levels good consolidation between 11391-11440 therefore up moves are expected towards next resistances(11540-11610)because clear selling patterns were not seen and Mixed Patterns formation in last hour.

Sustaining beyond crucial levels will confirm next decisive moves

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 30 to Oct 04,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and Wave-B beginning
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formations at 11694.90 on 20-09-2019
4- Last 5 sessions sideways trading between 11417-11694

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together) 

All the trands are up because Nifty has also sustained above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 112247) therefore Long Tern Trend turning up confirmation also.

Last 5 sessions sideways trading between 11417-11694 with lower levels supports and higher levels selling and at present Nifty is not prepared for sustaining beyond this range therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare in the coming week for next decisive moves beyond this range.

As per Eliot Wave Theory Wave-B is on and once sustaining above last 5 sessions highest(11694) will mean its continuation towards the top of Wave-5(12103.00). Until Nifty will not move above it(12103.00) till then "ABC" correction structure will remain alive and possibility of Wave-C slipping below the bottom of Wave-A(10637.15) can not be ruled out and sustaining below Last 5 sessions lowest(11417) will be first indication of Wave-C beginning.

As last 5 sessions trading range(11417-11694) has become crucial and sustaining it beyond should be firstly watch in next week for above mentioned decisive moves confirmations.

Firstly watch levels for next decisive moves confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling between 11551-11610
2- Selling between 11540-11590 
3- Whole day actual trading between 11467-11670

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing was near the higher levels of the day but good intraday selling patterns formations also therefore fresh consolidation is required for sustaining above today highest and slipping below today lowest will confirm decisive down moves beginning.  

As good supports also below today lowest therefore firstly follow up moves and valid break out of last 4 sessions trading range(11417-11694) should be firstly watched for next decisive moves confirmations.

Finally rally after 2 sessions 1003 points rally correction completion

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 4 Hours Mixed Patterns formation between 11464-11525
2- Consolidation between 11417-11458
3- Whole day actual trading between 11417-11538

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As weaker closing of US markets yesterday therefore all the Asian markets were trading in negative zone today morning hence sentiment turned dampened and resultant sharp down moves were seen after weak opening in Indian markets.

Although 1.28% negative closing today but clear selling patterns were not seen and lower levels consolidation also developed after 4 Hours Mixed Patterns formation therefore emergence of rally continuation expectations because selling patterns were not seen yesterday also and today down moves were due to weakness in all the Global markets.

As 1003 points like huge rally in only 2 sessions after Nirmala Sitaraman Press conference therefore its correction is on and expected that finally rally will be seen above the top of last Monday highest(11694.9) but follow up consolidation for cooling down is also required because sentiment has turned heated after Modi ji meetings with many Industrialists in USA and market favoring big announcements by Nirmala Sitaraman in Press conference last Friday. 

Finally rally continuation after fresh consolidation

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Consolidation between 11540-11604
3- Whole day actual trading between 11540-11655

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although most time negative zone trading and Red closing also but intraday patterns are shoring consolidation patterns formations therefore on going rally continuation is expected. 

As 2 sessions extremely strong rally from the beginning of Nirmala Sitaraman Press conference last Friday therefore Very Short Indicators have turned overbought and sentiment is also heated therefore 1/2 sessions sideways trading for cooling down is being seen and fresh consolidation has also developed today hence finally rally will be seen.

As busy therefore could not update Stock Market Outlook of today(24-09-2019) but Outlook of tomorrow will be posted positively. 

More than 5% rally after Modi ji and Nirmala Sitaraman surgical strike on Bears

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 23 to Sep 27,2019)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective  Wave-4 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A  completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019
8- 34 Sessions sideways trading range(10638-11181) broken out forcefully on 20-09-2019 and that confirmed Wave-B beginning as well as Wave-A completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019.
9- Long Term Trend turning up indication after last Friday closing above its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 112230).  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (20-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after life time top formation at 12103.00 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A  completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019
3- 34 Sessions sideways trading range(10638-11181) broken out forcefully on 20-09-2019 and that confirmed Wave-B beginning as well as Wave-A completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 
4- Wave-B continuation with recent top formations at 11381.90 on 20-09-2019

Nifty-Last 34 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Jul 31 to Sep 20,2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 34 Sessions intraday charts

1- Previous 34 Sessions trading  between 10638-11181
2- Previous 34 Sessions  trading range forcefully broken out on 20-09-2019

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis(20-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sideways trading till 10:45 AM i.e. before the beginning of F.M. Nirmala Sitaraman Press Conference.
2- Strong rally immediately after beginning of Press Conference
3- Closing near higher levels of the day after 5.32% gains 
4- Whole day actual trading between 10691-11381

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

The date of 20-09-2019 will always be remembered in the history of Indian Stock Markets for more than 5% gains after just only a Press Conference. Yes,Indian Stock Markets celebrated Dipawali on 20th Sep 2019 and  most of the Indices blasted more than 5%.

Nifty traded sideways between 10638-11181 in the last 34 Sessions and this trading range forcefully broken out on 20-09-2019 as well as Nifty closed above Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 112230) resultant Long Term Trend turning up strong indications. Once sustaining above 200-Day SMA in next week will mean all trends(Long,Intermediate and Short) turning up confirmations therefore sustaining it beyond should also be watched in the coming week for confirmations.

34 Sessions sideways trading range(10638-11181) broken out forcefully on 20-09-2019 and as per Eliot Wave Theory confirmation of Wave-B beginning and Wave-A completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019. It means that possibility of Wave-C slipping below Wave-A lowest(10637.15) is still alive after Wave-B completion below Wave-5 top(12103.00) but now it has been confirmed that much deeper correction of Wave-C will not be seen below Wave-A lowest(10637.15) and finally strong rally will be seen after completion of "ABC" correction completion. 

As 34 Sessions like big sideways trading range broken out last Friday therefore emergence of more than 5% rally possibility which will be seen in next weeks/months after Modi ji and Nirmala Sitaraman surgical strike on Bears.

10671-10805 will confirm next decisive moves 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Continuous slipping after flat opening
2- Minor consolidation at lower levels in last 2 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 10671-10845

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As whole day lower levels supports and after that Mixed Patterns formation in last 3 hours yesterday therefore up moves expected today but sentiment turned dampened today morning due to depressing Asian markets therefore fresh down moves begun after flat opening.

Although continuous slipping but minor consolidation was also seen at lower levels in last 2 hours therefore some up moves may be seen tomorrow because Short Term Indicators have also turned Oversold.

Last supports of previous 33 sessions trading range(10638-11181) are between 10747-10805 and this support has been broken down today therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 10805 till then decisive up moves will not be seen and once sustaining below today lowest will mean more then 5% sharp fall possibility.

As Nifty closed near the lower levels of previous 33 sessions trading range(10638-11181) and last supports have also been broken down therefore firstly valid break out of 10671-10805 should be watched for above mentioned next decisive moves confirmations.

Firstly watch 10747 amid weaker Global markets 

Post-open Outlook(19-09-2019)

As Dow Jones Futures is trading more than 75 points down and all the Asian markers are weak as well as Hang Seng is more than 1% down today morning therefore sentiment turned weak and resultant weaker opening of Indian markets. 

Last supports of last 32 sessions are lying between 10747-10805 and sentiment is dampened today therefore firstly sustaining beyond 10747 should be watched for the next big decisive down moves confirmations. 

Pull back rally continuation expectations 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Lower levls supports between 10805-10825
3- Mixed Patterns formation between 10846-10873
4- Whole day actual trading between 10805-10885

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after positive opening and moving also in negative zone but getting continuous supports at lower levels therefore today started Pull back rally continuation is expected. 

As Mixed Patterns formation between 10846-10873 also therefore follow up consolidation and once sustaining above 10873 will mean strong up moves towards and above 10950.

Watch levels amid a Pull Back Rally possibility

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-09-2019)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Sep-2019):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Selling immediately after opening
2- Selling between 10901-10934
3- Last Hours Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- Whole day actual trading between 10797-11000

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Following lines were told on 14-09-2019 in "Firstly watch 3 most crucial levels for next up Trend beginning confirmations":-

Short Term indicators have also turned over bought and Short Term correction can not be ruled out any day in next week. 

Following 3rd support was updated on 14-09-2019 in "Firstly watch 3 most crucial levels for next up Trend beginning confirmations":-

3- 10817-10861 

As Indian markets were overbought and negative development of Drone Attacks In Saudi Arab oil fields therefore Short Term correction was seen in last 2 sessions and Nifty closed exactly at 3rd support(10817.60) Today.  

Although firstly selling but some buying was also seen in last hours today through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel and Very Short Term indicators have also turned over sold therefore a Pull Back Rally can not be ruled out.

As finally next decisive moves will be seen after sustaining beyond 10747-10934 and firstly Nifty will prepare for it within this range tomorrow therefore should be watched in the coming sessions.