Strong support range will confirm next more than 5% moves amid more down moves possibilities

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Apr 07 to Apr 09,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Apr-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves"  beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
8- Indications of Wave-A completion and Wave-B beginning after last 14 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970.

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

4 Years rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 completed at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 after 5 waves completion. Now its corrective Wave-A of'ABC" Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020. 

As last 14 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970 therefore indications of Wave-B beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Apr-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5-Day SMA is at 8375 
2- 13-Day SMA is at 8360
3- 55-Day SMA is at 10889
4- 200-Day SMA is at 11408

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Averages)

Although 5-Day SMA has moved above 13-Day SMA but last Friday closing was much below both Short Term averages therefore fresh decisive up moves can not be considered because Intermediate and Long Term averages are much above both these Short Term averages.

Nifty-Last 14 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Apr 03,2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 14 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 14 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
C- 8846-9038
D- 8772-8883
E- 8760-8873
F- 8663-8733
G- 8465-8660
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 14 sessions between 
A- 8056-8107
B- 7833-8024 
C- 7512-7970
3- 14 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602 

Conclusions from 14 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 14 sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 7 resistances and lower levels 3 supports therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range,finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Although rock bottom support developed between 7512-7970 but higher levels follow up selling was also seen in previous week therefore expected that nifty will test this support range in next week and finally sustaining beyond this support range will confirm next more than 5% moves.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis 

(03-Apr-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Apr-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts


1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Selling between 8100-8160
3- Selling between 8184-8222
4- More than 200 points sharp fall
5- Support between 8056-8107
6- Whole day actual trading between 8056-8222

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly some buying through Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels but after that selling was seen between 8184-8222 and 8056-8107 therefore more than 200 points sharp fall and day's closing was near the lower levels of the day. 

As some intraday supports in last hour between 8056-8107 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the beginning of next week and remain cautious also because sharp fall will be seen after sustaining below 8056.

Conclusions

 (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend is down but indication of its turning up after last 14 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970.

All the Global markets have crashed after Corona pandemic eruption in almost whole world and no indication of its stopping yet and on the other hand its spreading fear has loomed large. Although Corona situation was too much under control in India but situation worsened too much after  detection of more than 600 Corona affected cases from Nizamuddin Markaz Jamaat in last 4 days and until whole situation will not come under control completely till then decisive up moves will not be seen and correction continuation possibilities will remain alive.

Last 14 Sessions trading between 7512-9602 and Nifty will firstly trade within this range in next week. As strong supports are lying between 7512-7970 therefore Nifty will firstly trade within and near about this range but will not be able to move up easily because above mentioned 7 resistances are lying above last Friday closing(8083.80).    

As too much fear spread after more than 600 Corona affected cases coming from Nizamuddin Markaz Jamaat in last 4 days therefore decisive up moves will not be seen until picture will not be clear and possibilities of more down moves will remain alive as well as finally sustaining beyond strong support range(7512-7970) should be watched in next week because will confirm next more than 5% moves.

Remain cautious after more than 400 Corona affected cases from Nizamuddin Markaz Jamaat

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(03-04-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (01-Apr-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 237 Points fall in first 45 minutes
2- Selling between 8360-8415
3- Support between 8199-8290
4- Whole day actual trading between 8199-8588

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat opening but firstly 237 Points fall in first 45 minutes and after that selling was seen between 8360-8415 down moves remain continued till 02:00 PM. As some supports with minor consolidation was seen in last more than 2 hours 8199-8290 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched tomorrow for next 5% moves.

As sentiment has turned extremely depressed after detection of more than 400 Corona affected cases from Nizamuddin Markaz Jamaat in last 3 days therefore remain cautious because sharp fall can not be ruled out after sustaining below last Wednesday lowest(8,198.35)

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(01-04-2020) is not being updated but Outlook for 03-04-2020 will be posted positively.

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(31-03-2020) is not being updated.

More than 20% Rally of Nifty and up moves above 10000 if Coronavirus situation does not worsen

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 30 to Apr 03,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Corrective Waves)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
3- Indications of Wave-B formations after last 10 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 after rock bottom supports development between 7512-7970 in 3 sessions from 23-03-2020 to 25-03-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Corrective Waves)

Corrective Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" continuation after impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020. Although no confirmation of Wave-A completion and  Wave-B beginning but its 1st signal developed after last 10 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 and rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970 in 3 sessions from 23-03-2020 to 25-03-2020.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of corrective Wave-A(7511.1 to 12430.50):-

1- 13.0%- 8150.62 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 8672.08 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 8839.34 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 9390.31 (Crucial)
5- 50.0%- 9970.80  (Crucial)
6- 61.8%- 10551.30 (Crucial) 
7- 70.7%- 10989.10
8- 76.4%- 11269.50
9- 78.6%- 11377.70
10-88.6%- 11869.70 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

As 27.0% Retracement has been completed also therefore 2nd signal of corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B formation to move towards above mentioned retracement levels 

Nifty

Last 10 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Mar 27,2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 10 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling(Resistances) in last 10 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
C- 8846-9038
D- 8772-8883
E- 8760-8873
F- 8663-8733
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 10 sessions between 
A- 8524-8627
B- 8479-8553
C- 8179-8423
D- 8087-8360
E- 7833-8024 
F- 7512-7970
3- 10 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602 

Conclusions from 10 Sessions intra day chart analysis

Last 10 sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 6 resistances and lower levels 6 supports therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range,finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

As rock bottom support has developed between 7512-7970 in first 3 sessions of previous week therefore expected that this range will not be easily broken down. 

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis

 (27-Mar-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
3- Sharp fall
4- Whole day actual trading between 8523-9038

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As package news with Repo rate cut expectation by RBI Governor at 10:00 AM was in limelight since last Friday morning therefore more than 3% huge gap up opening last Friday but Nifty started slipping from higher levels after first 15 minutes up moves.

Although sharp up moves were seen after Repo rate,stock markets and Industries favoring announcements but again market could not sustain at higher levels and slipped because sentiment turned heated after such nice announcements and selling also can not be ruled out on the back of this sentiments. As these Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore some consolidation was also seen at lower levels because after this again Down moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel.

As lower levels some consolidation therefore up moves were seen after 01:30 PM despite much weaker opening of European markets and Dow Jones's Future was trading more than 250 down. As these up moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore again more than 200 points sharp fall was seen after 02:30 PM.

Both higher levels selling and lower levels consolidation was seen last Friday therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday trading range(8523-9038) should be watched in the beginning of next week for first signal of next decisive moves beginning confirmations.

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend has turned up after more than 1500 points recovery from lower levels in previous week.

Corrective Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" continuation and no indication of its completion yet but emergence of following 2 signals of its completion in previous week:-

1- Rock bottom supports formation between 7512-7970.
2- 27.0% Retracement completion of Wave-1 correction.

Nifty strongly recovered 1604.25 points from lower levels on 13-03-2020 and after that turned sideways as well as trading between 7512-9602 for the last 10 Sessions,finally sustaining beyond this range will form next big moves. As above mentioned 2 signals of Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning. 

Extremely fast Price-wise correction of Wave-A has almost been completed at 7511.10 but Time-wise is still left which will be seen in the coming weeks and months because market will firstly wait for complete normalization Coronavirus situation and after that economic and Industrial growth coming on track which will take its own time and that may be much longer also.

As above situation therefore Nifty may remain sideways between 7512-9602 and will take its own time but if Coronavirus situation does not worsen to extreme levels in India then more than 20% rally of Nifty and up moves above 10000 will be seen without slipping below 7511.10. 

Rally continuation expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(27-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (26-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Sharp up immediately after opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Sharp up moves
4- Selling between 8663-8733
5- Slipping after FM Nirmala Sitaraman Press Conference
6- Consolidation between 8453-8601
7- Up moves in last hour
8- Whole day actual trading between 8305-8749

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As firstly sharp up immediately after opening and after that Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel therefore sharp up moves were seen after 11:00 AM but some selling also seen at higher levels because sentiment heated up due to package announcements expectations built up in FM Nirmala Sitaraman Press Conference at 01:00 PM today.

Although slipping after FM Nirmala Sitaraman Press Conference but follow up consolidation developed between 8453-8601 therefore up moves were seen in last hour,

As follow up consolidation developed after some selling between 8663-8733 therefore whole day today traing will be understood with good consolidation patterns formations and on going rally continuation is expected in the coming sessions and until Nifty will not sustain below 8453 after complete selling till then decisive down moves will not be seen.

Up moves towards next resistances if no crashing like situation in Global markets 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(26-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- Consolidation between 7715-7970(Immediate Supports)
3- Strong up moves in Mid-session
4- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour
5- Whole day actual trading between 7715-8376

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As selling between 7845-7990 yesterday therefore firstly Nifty slipped after opening and consolidated between 7715-7970 then strong up moves were seen in Mid-session. Although today closing was near the higher levels of the day but some selling developed through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel in last hour therefore firstly consolidation is required near about today hifger levels for fresh up moves.

If no crashing like situation in Asian markets tomorrow then today started up moves will remain continued towards following next resistances and until clear fresh selling patterns will not develop till then decisive down moves will not be seen because lower levels good consolidation has been developed between 7512-7840 in last 3 sessions and this range will be strong supports of Nifty.

1- 8429-8575 
2- 9254-9403
3- 9430-9584

Firstly watch levels for next decisive moves confirmations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(25-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Tumbling more than 400 points in first 30 minutes
2- Consolidation between 7512-7740(Immediate Supports)
3- Up moves with downward correction
4- Selling between 7845-7990(Immediate Resistances)
5- 200 Points sharp fall in last hour
6- Whole day actual trading between 7512-8036

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although Nifty closed 12.98% down yesterday but we told for up moves above 8159.25 which were seen up to 8036.95 today after strong opening. 

It was highly volatile day today because Nifty tumbled more than 400 points in first 30 minutes and after that consolidated at lower levels. Although up moves with downward correction in Mid-sessions but higher levels selling was also seen therefore 200 Points sharp fall was seen in last hour. 

As lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling therefore today trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 7512-8036 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next decisive moves which should be firstly watched in the coming sessions.

Expectations of Up moves above today highest 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(24-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (23-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 7584-8159

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As sentiment turned tremendously depressed after all around lock down in some states and many cities therefore huge gap down opening and Indian markets hit 10% circuit filter before 11:00 AM today as well as Nifty closed 12.98% down finally. One more thing I would like to add here that sentiment worsened too too much but situation not that much and Indian markets over reacted today.

Although such high crash today but intraday charts patterns of today are suggesting consolidation through whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore up moves above today highest(8159.25) is expected because today such huge down moves of today will be understood over reaction also. 

Finally crucial levels will confirm next trend 

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 23 to Mar 27,2020)

Nifty-Last 5 Sessions intraday charts analysis

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Mar 20,2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in last 5 Sessions intraday charts

1- Selling in last 5 sessions between
A- 8503-8883
B- 9254-9403
C- 9430-9584
2- Consolidation in last 5 sessions between 
A- 8179-8423
B- 8087-8360
C- 7833-8024 
3- 5 Sessions actual trading between 7832-9602 

Conclusions from 5 Sessions intra day chart analysis 

Last 5 sessions trading was between 7832-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 3 resistances and lower levels 3 supports therefore Nifty will not easily cross last 5 sessions trading range and will firstly trade as well as prepare for next decisive moves within this range,finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm next big moves which should be watched in the coming week/weeks.

Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis (20-Mar-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (20-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 8179-8423(Immediate Supports)
1- 3 Hours 700 points up moves with downward corrections
3- Sharp fall after Maharashtra Govt. lockdown news
4- Slow up moves in last hour
5- Selling indications in last hours between 8503-8883(Immediate Resistances)
6- Whole day actual trading between 8179-8883

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after positive opening but lower levels good consolidation was seen between 8179-8423 therefore 3 Hours 700 points up moves was seen with downward corrections. As sentiment changed suddenly after Maharashtra Govt lockdown news broken out hence Nifty crashed 380 points within only 36 Minutes. Although some up moves were seen in last hour but were slow therefore some selling also can not be ruled out during these up moves.

As last hours volatility with higher levels selling indications developed between 8503-8883 therefore this range will be understood immediate resistance of Nifty and until Nifty will not sustain above 8883 after complete consolidation till then decisive up moves will not be seen. 

Conclusions (After Putting All Studies Together)

As 3 EOD charts(Waves structure,Corrective Waves structure and Fibonacci retracement levels) were posted in previous weekly outlook(Mar 16 to Mar 20,2020) and no material change in previos week therefore EOD charts are not being repeated and only intraday charts of previous week are being posted:- 

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend is sideways between 7832-9602 for the last 5 sessions.

As Corona Virus led huge uncertainity therefore high volatility and in the Global markets hence Nifty traded within more than 1500 points in previous week. As some medicines have been proved effective to cure Corona Virus therefore some up moves were seen in most Global markets in previous week but sentiment turned depressed in India after Corona Virus spreading by Kanika Kapoor news broken out. No one knows about its seariousness and firstly it should be understood in next week,then next decisive moves will be considered. 

Next 3 supports and 3 resistances have been updated above and firstly sustaining then beyond should be watched one by one as well as finally crucial levels (7832-9602) will confirm next trend amid Corona Virus spreading news by Kanika Kapoor in India. 

Follow up consolidation will mean strong rally towards next resistances

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(20-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (19-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 7833-8024(Immediate Supports)
2- Consolidation between 8087-8360(Immediate Supports)
3- Selling between 8429-8575(Immediate resistances)
4- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
5- Whole day actual trading between 7833-8575

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although 2.34% negative closing but 742 points strong recovery from lower levels after consolidation between 7833-8024. As more consolidation in Mid-session also therefore sharp up moves were seen before some selling at higher levels.

As some consolidation was also seen in last hour through down moves in Bullish Falling Channel after higher levels selling therefore up moves will be seen towards today highest. 

If follow up complete consolidation develop tomorrow and Nifty sustains above immediate resistances(8429-8575) then that will mean strong rally towards following next resistances:-

1- 9254-9403
2- 9430-9584

Strong Pull Back rally expectations if Global markets not crashing

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(19-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (18-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Whole day Down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Whole day actual trading between 8408-9127

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although today closing was near the lower levels of the day after loosing 5.56% points but Whole day Down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation signal therefore a strong Pull Back rally is expected because Short/Intermediate term indicators have also turned oversold.

Only one hurdle in Pull Back rally is that Global markets situation should not be in crashing mode.

Finally down moves amid Global cues led high volatility 

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(18-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- More than 300 points up moves in first 2 hours
2- Selling between 9254-9403(Immediate Resistances)
3- 300 Points sharp fall in last hour
4- Whole day actual trading between 8915-9403

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although more than 300 points up moves in first 2 hours but higher levels good Selling between 9254-9403 therefore 300 Points sharp fall in last hour and closing near lower levels of the day after loosing 2.50% points.

As good selling was between 9430-9584 yesterday and follow up selling between 9254-9403 was seen today also therefore more down moves are expected and until Nifty will not sustain above 9584 after complete consolidation till then any decisive up move will not be seen and finally down moves are expected amid Global cues led high volatility expectations

As busy therefore Stock Market Outlook of today(17-03-2020) is not being updated.

More up moves towards next resistances if coronavirus crisis situation remains normal

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 16 to Mar 20,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves"  beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020
8- Indications of Wave-B formations after 1604.25 points sharp recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

4 Years rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 completed at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 after 5 waves completion and its 'ABC" Correction correction begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020. As 1604.25 points sharp recovery from  8555.15 on 13-03-2020 therefore indications of Wave-B formations after Wave-A completion.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Corrective Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves"  beginning
3- Impulsive Wave-5 continuation in Rising Channel
4- Rising Channel broken down forcefully on 06-03-2020
5- Corrective Wave-A continuation with recent bottom formation at 8555.15 on 13-03-2020
6- Indications of Wave-B formations after 1604.25 sharp recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Corrective Waves structure)

As Nifty moves up 1604.25 points and recovered from 8555.15 to 11159.40 on 13-03-2020 in just 1 sessions therefore strong indications of Wave-A completion and Wave-B formations to move towards the top of Wave-5(12430.50).  

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (13-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of whole waves structure(6825 to 12430):-

1- 13.0%- 11701 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 11107 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 10916 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 10288 (Retraced)
5- 50.0%- 9627  (Retraced)
6- 61.8%- 8966  (Retraced)
7- 70.7%- 8467
8- 76.4%- 8147
9- 78.6%- 8024
10-88.6%- 7463 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Retracement of whole that rally is very much on which started from 6825 and completed at 12430,its 61.8% retracement has been completed and no confirmation of this retracement completion.  

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is down.
3- Short term trend is down but indication of its turning up after strong recovery from lower levels and 1604.25 points strong recovery from lower levels on 13-03-2020.

As Nifty slipped below the bottom of Wave-5(9951.90) on 13-03-2020 therefore it is another confirmation of Bear market and more down moves will be seen below 9951.90 in the coming weeks/months after Wave-C formation despite 1604.25 points strong recovery here on 13-03-2020

Earthquake like situation due to coronavirus crisis all around in all the Global markets and no one knows when situation will become normal and how much this problem will deepen therefore cautious approach is required. As eruption of this problem therefore corrective Wave-A was extremely fast and it seems that Wave-A has completed Price-wise correction  8555.15 on 13-03-2020 and signals of Wave-B formation also but it is expected that it may complete correction in Time-wise manner  

If coronavirus crisis does not turn worse and situation remains normal then more up moves will be seen towards following next resistances:-

1- 10527-10590
2- 10884-11005
3- 11260-11400

Be cautious amid coronavirus crisis panic led high volatility

Nifty-Market Analysis(13-03-2020)

As coronavirus crisis deepens and all the Global markets are crashing as well as SGX Nifty has traded more than 900 points down therefore intraday charts analysis of today is not being updated because it has no significance in such high depressing situation.

Earthquake like situation all around in all the Global markets and no one knows when situation will become normal. It must be kept in mind that more than 100 points intraday volatility of Nifty will be normal feature and decisive up moves will be seen minimum after 1/2 sessions intrday consolidation patterns formation and "V shaped recovery may also be seen any day" but all these possibility will be according to coronavirus news and after some positive developments regarding this.

Certainly huge panic and market reverse in such situation also,let market to get support,consolidate or sharply recover more than 100 points from lower levels then reversal/Pull Back rally will be considered but be cautious because volatility will remain high.

9951 will confirm Bear market amid all Global markets crashed after WHO declaration coronavirus a pandemic 

Pre-open Outlook(12-03-2020)

As WHO declared the worldwide outbreak of the new coronavirus a pandemic late night yesterday therefore firstly US markets crashed yesterday and all the Asian markets are in deep Red today morning therefore sentiment is most depressed and resultant deeper gap down opening will be seen in Indian markets also. 

Although whole day intraday consolidation yesterday and good consolidation between 10295-10392 on 09-03-2020 also but no level will be saved today in such huge crash in all Global markets and now 9951 should be watched because it will confirm Indian markets moving into Bearish phase.

Pull back rally above today highest expectations

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(12-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (11-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Up moves with downward corrections
2- All the down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
3- Whole day actual trading between 10374-10545

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although flat closing after whole day sideways trading between 10374-10545 but today intraday charts are suggesting whole day consolidation patterns formations through Up moves with downward corrections and all the down moves in Bullish Falling Channels therefore Pull back rally above today highest(10,545.10) is expected in the coming sessions despite Dow Jones now trading more than 900 points down and SGX Nifty below 10365.

Immediate Resistances between 10527-10590 were updated yesterday in "Firstly watch immediate good supports" and once sustaining above 10590 will mean strong rally towards mext resistances above 10900.

Firstly watch immediate good supports

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(11-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- 430 Points down in first half hour
2- More than 2 hours selling between 10527-10590(Immediate Resistances)
3- 200 Points fall in Mid-session
4- Consolidation between 10295-10392(Immediate Supports)
5- Up moves in last 2 hours
6- Whole day actual trading between 10295-10751

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As all the Global markets were crashing therefore slipping after huge gap down opening and loosing 430 Points in first half hour. Although 200 Points fall in Mid-session after more than 2 hours selling between 10527-10590 but up moves were seen in last 2 hours after lower levels consolidation between 10295-10392. 

As last 2 hours up moves started exactly after more than 7% down opening of most European markets(after 01:30 PM) and some consolidation was also seen at lower levels just before it between 10295-10392 therefore it will be understood that Indian markets out performed after getting good supports and firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming sessions for stopping/continuation of on going correction amid Corona Virus news led volatile Global markets. Let correction stop and Nifty to consolidate near about 10295-10392 then more decisive up moves will be considered and will be seen as well.

Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Mar 09 to Mar 13,2020)

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Waves structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis

(Waves structure)

As Wave-3 gained 3277.70 points in 1 year and 1 month and after that the correction which started from 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 completed within 1 month and 25 days after loosing only 1220 points therefore this correction was not previously considered price-wise and time-wise correction of Wave-3 but after this 3 impulsive waves(Wave-i,Wave-iii,Wave-v) and 2 corrective waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) have been seen therefore now Waves structure is being recounted with this correction consideration as Wave-4.

Now correction of Wave-5 is very much on with its recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020 and no indication of its completion yet.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(5th Wave structure)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion 
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-ii beginning
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion at 12103.05 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-iv beginning
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-5 completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corrcetion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(5th Wave structure)

5th Wave is constituted by its 5 Sub waves of which 3 are impulsive(Wave-i,Wave-iii and Wave-v) and 2 are corrective(Wave-ii and Wave-iv),now correction is on after 5th impulsive Sub Wave completion which is a strong indication of whole 5th Wave correction happening which started from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 

As impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and now its correction continuation therefore firstly 10637.15 should be watched be watched in next week for the depth and life of on going correction. 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Wave-5 Trend line)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion 
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 (11760.20 on 28-08-2018)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-5 (10004.55 on 26-10-2018)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 (12103.05 on 03-06-2019)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-5 (10637.15 on 23-08-2019)
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corretion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020
8- Wave-5 corrections trend line broken down and closing below it on 06-03-2020  

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Wave-5 Trend line)

A trend line has been drawn at the bottom of both corrective Sub Waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) of Wave 5 and this trend line has been broken down on and closing below it on 06-03-2020 which is a strong signal of on going correction continuation 
 

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis 

(Averages)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 5-Day SMA is at 11189.1
2- 13-Day SMA is at 11560.4
3- 55-Day SMA is at 12007.1
4- 200-Day SMA is at 11686.0

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Averages)

Nifty closed at 10989.45 on 06-03-2020 with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 same day which is much below above mentioned main averages and that is confirmation of Indian markets weakness.

Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis

 (Fibonacci retracement levels)

Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(9951-12430):-

1- 13.0%- 12107 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 11845 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 11760 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 11483 (Retraced)
5- 50.0%- 11190 (Retraced)
6- 61.8%- 10898 (Retraced)
7- 70.7%- 10677
8- 76.4%- 10536
9- 78.6%- 10481
10-88.6%- 10233 

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

(Fibonacci retracement levels)

61.8% retracement of Wave-5 has been completed last Friday after slipping below 10898. Next 70.7%(10677) is much important because it is just above Wave-iv of Wave-5(10637.15 on 23-08-2019) .As 70.7% retracement level has become crucial there it should be firstly watched in next weak for the life and length of on going correction.

Conclusions 

(After Putting All Studies Together)

Correction is very much on and all the trends are down. As such forceful correction after Wave-v of Wave-5 completion therefore it may correct whole 5 waves rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and finished at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020.

Following calculation as per Elliott Wave theory is suggesting that 12430.50 may be the final top of that rally which  from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016

As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3  gained.

Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3277.70 points(11171.50-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 2478.60 points(12430.50-9951.90)

As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-1 and Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained. Wave-5 correction started after gaining lesser points than  Wave-3 gained as well as Wave-5 correction begun from 12430.50 after completing 5th Sub wave of Wave-5 therefore it means correction begun from 12430.50 after completing all targets of price and waves which means strong signal of Nifty correcting whole rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and this correction will be both Price-wise and time-wise.    

Sub Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and 70.7% retracement level is just above it is at 10677 which should be firstly watched in the coming week for the life and length of on going correction because slipping below it will mean next target of correction at the bottom of Wave-5(9951.90).

Only hope for the bulls is that Short Term indicators have turned oversold and if any positive news come regarding Corona Virus then a strong Pull Back rally will be seen and if such news comes before slipping below 10637.15 then will be good for the health of Nifty because:-

1- Wave-v of Wave-5 will remain intact.  
2- 10637.15 is one of the strongest support because Wave-v of Wave-5 rally started from here after 33 sessions consolidation.
3- Forceful rally started from here after Corporate Tax cut announcements on 20-09-2019. 

Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility which should be firstly watched in the coming weeks. 

11083 will confirm fresh down moves amid Yes Bank negative news and crashing US markets

Intra Day Chart Analysis & Market Outlook

(06-03-2020)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (05-Mar-2020):-

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Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts

1- Consolidation between 11245-11292
2- Selling between 11138-11389
3- Last hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
4- Whole day actual trading between 11245-11389

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

Although firstly slipping after strong opening but lower levels consolidation developed therefore sharp up was seen in Mid-Session. As selling developed at higher levels therefore down moves were seen in last hours which were in Bullish Falling Channels hence lower levels buying and higher levels selling will be understood for today and that will mean Mixed Patterns formation between 11245-11389.

As RBI sets Rs 50,000 withdrawal limit on Yes Bank accounts and Dow Jones is trading more than 1000 points down today therefore SGX Niftry is trading more than 300 points weak below 10950 at this moment but lower levels buying today and immediate supports below today lowest are between 11083-11144 therefore firstly sustaining beyond 11083 should be watched tomorrrow for fresh down moves beginning confirmations.