Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 09 to Mar 13,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):- |
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1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
As Wave-3 gained 3277.70 points in 1 year and 1 month and after that the correction which started from 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 completed within 1 month and 25 days after loosing only 1220 points therefore this correction was not previously considered price-wise and time-wise correction of Wave-3 but after this 3 impulsive waves(Wave-i,Wave-iii,Wave-v) and 2 corrective waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) have been seen therefore now Waves structure is being recounted with this correction consideration as Wave-4.
Now correction of Wave-5 is very much on with its recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020 and no indication of its completion yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(5th Wave structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):- |
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1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 completion at 11760.20 on 28-08-2018 and corrective Wave-ii beginning
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-5 completion at 10004.55 on 26-10-2018 and impulsive Wave-iii beginning
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 completion at 12103.05 on 03-06-2019 and corrective Wave-iv beginning
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-5 completion at 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corrcetion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(5th Wave structure)
5th Wave is constituted by its 5 Sub waves of which 3 are impulsive(Wave-i,Wave-iii and Wave-v) and 2 are corrective(Wave-ii and Wave-iv),now correction is on after 5th impulsive Sub Wave completion which is a strong indication of whole 5th Wave correction happening which started from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018
As impulsive Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and now its correction continuation therefore firstly 10637.15 should be watched be watched in next week for the depth and life of on going correction.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Wave-5 Trend line)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):- |
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1- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-5 beginning from 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 after corrective Wave-4 completion
2- Wave-i of Wave-5 (11760.20 on 28-08-2018)
3- Wave-ii of Wave-5 (10004.55 on 26-10-2018)
4- Wave-iii of Wave-5 (12103.05 on 03-06-2019)
5- Wave-iv of Wave-5 (10637.15 on 23-08-2019)
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and its corretion beginning
7- Wave-5 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 on 06-03-2020
8- Wave-5 corrections trend line broken down and closing below it on 06-03-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Wave-5 Trend line)
A trend line has been drawn at the bottom of both corrective Sub Waves(Wave-ii and Wave-iv) of Wave 5 and this trend line has been broken down on and closing below it on 06-03-2020 which is a strong signal of on going correction continuation
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):- |
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1- 5-Day SMA is at 11189.1
2- 13-Day SMA is at 11560.4
3- 55-Day SMA is at 12007.1
4- 200-Day SMA is at 11686.0
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Nifty closed at 10989.45 on 06-03-2020 with recent bottom formation at 10827.40 same day which is much below above mentioned main averages and that is confirmation of Indian markets weakness.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (06-Mar-2020):- |
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Nifty-Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-5(9951-12430):-
1- 13.0%- 12107 (Retraced)
2- 23.6%- 11845 (Retraced)
3- 27.0%- 11760 (Retraced)
4- 38.2%- 11483 (Retraced)
5- 50.0%- 11190 (Retraced)
6- 61.8%- 10898 (Retraced)
7- 70.7%- 10677
8- 76.4%- 10536
9- 78.6%- 10481
10-88.6%- 10233
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
61.8% retracement of Wave-5 has been completed last Friday after slipping below 10898. Next 70.7%(10677) is much important because it is just above Wave-iv of Wave-5(10637.15 on 23-08-2019) .As 70.7% retracement level has become crucial there it should be firstly watched in next weak for the life and length of on going correction.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
Correction is very much on and all the trends are down. As such forceful correction after Wave-v of Wave-5 completion therefore it may correct whole 5 waves rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and finished at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020.
Following calculation as per Elliott Wave theory is suggesting that 12430.50 may be the final top of that rally which from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016
As per Elliott Wave theory "Wave-3 should not be shorter than both Wave-1 and Wave-5. Now impulsive Wave-5 is on and it should not gain more points than Wave-3 gained.
Impulsive Wave-1 gained=2142.90 points(8968.70-6825.80)
Impulsive Wave-3 gained=3277.70 points(11171.50-7893.80)
Impulsive Wave-5 has gained 2478.60 points(12430.50-9951.90)
As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-1 and Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained. Wave-5 correction started after gaining lesser points than Wave-3 gained as well as Wave-5 correction begun from 12430.50 after completing 5th Sub wave of Wave-5 therefore it means correction begun from 12430.50 after completing all targets of price and waves which means strong signal of Nifty correcting whole rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 and this correction will be both Price-wise and time-wise.
Sub Wave-v of Wave-5 started from 10637.15 on 23-08-2019 and 70.7% retracement level is just above it is at 10677 which should be firstly watched in the coming week for the life and length of on going correction because slipping below it will mean next target of correction at the bottom of Wave-5(9951.90).
Only hope for the bulls is that Short Term indicators have turned oversold and if any positive news come regarding Corona Virus then a strong Pull Back rally will be seen and if such news comes before slipping below 10637.15 then will be good for the health of Nifty because:-
1- Wave-v of Wave-5 will remain intact.
2- 10637.15 is one of the strongest support because Wave-v of Wave-5 rally started from here after 33 sessions consolidation.
3- Forceful rally started from here after Corporate Tax cut announcements on 20-09-2019.
Technically 10637.15 is last hope for Bulls amid only a strong Pull Back rally possibility which should be firstly watched in the coming weeks.