Mid-session Outlook(12-09-2012)

July IIP at 0.1% vs 3.7% (YoY)

Although Indian markets slipped from intraday higher levels after minor profit booking at higher levels but intraday patterns are indicating consolidation formations also. Indian markets are reacting today announced IIP data as well as preparing for post RBI Credit Policy moves on 17-09-2012.

All trends are up and Nifty is trading within strong resistance range(5380-5450),its break out will form next big moves. Forceful break out or sustaining beyond of today 15 points intraday trading range(5402-5417) will give first signal of mentioned resistance range break out direction therefore should be firstly watched.

Rally continuation after correction completion

Nifty-EOD Chart (11-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
2- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
3- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
4- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
5- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
6- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion but intraday selling  between 5362-5373 was seen on 10-Sep-2012 therefore firstly negative zone trading was seen yesterday. Intraday supports at lower levels and after that more than 1 hour trading above 5373 was seen yesterday therefore on going rally(Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3) continuation possibilities turned higher yesterday.

As strong resistances between 5380-5450 therefore complete consolidations is required for rally above 5450 and up moves may be slow also but expected that finally rally will be seen above 5450 .

FII Trading Data in Derivatives Segment on 11-Sep-2012

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 11-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 11-Sep-2012 1735.72 1312.13 423.59

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 11-Sep-2012 711.27 1077.07 -365.8

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(11-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- All the Indices closed in Green.
2- Long White Candle.
3- Closing near the highs of the day.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.13
Nifty P/E Ratio(01-Aug-2012): 17.22

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1557
BSE Declines : 1293
NSE Advances :  782
NSE Declines :  642

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Aug)- -104,400(-5.51%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Aug)-  977,500(12.15%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Aug)- -146,950(-3.38%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Aug)-  1,339,150(18.64%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Aug)- -527,800(-7.82%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Aug)-  1,650,200(58.34%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Aug)-  297,700(4.25%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Aug)-  190,750(15.48%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at   5,390.00(26.55 Points & 0.50%)
Sensex- closed at 17,852.95(86.17 Points & 0.49%)
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,278.25(23.75 Points & 0.33%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,579.68(38.03 Points & 0.58%)

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5472
R2 5432
R1 5411
Avg 5371
S1 5350
S2 5310
S3 5289

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5451     Trgt 2
H5 5437     Trgt 1
H4 5423     Long breakout
H3 5406     Go Short
H2 5401
H1 5395
L1 5384
L2 5378
L3 5373     Long
L4 5356     Short Breakout
L5 5342     Trgt 1
L6 5328     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5505
R2 5457
R1 5431
Avg 5383
S1 5357
S2 5309
S3 5283

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 5479     Trgt 2
H5 5462     Trgt 1
H4 5445     Long breakout
H3 5425     Go Short
H2 5418
H1 5411
L1 5398
L2 5391
L3 5384     Long
L4 5364     Short Breakout
L5 5347     Trgt 1
L6 5330     Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 12-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 10358
R2 10266
R1 10211
Avg 10119
S1 10064
S2 9972
S3 9917

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10305     Trgt 2
H5 10271     Trgt 1
H4 10237     Long breakout
H3 10197     Go Short
H2 10183
H1 10170
L1 10143
L2 10130
L3 10116     Long
L4 10076     Short Breakout
L5 10042     Trgt 1
L6 10008     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(11-09-2012)

Last more than 3 hours positive zone trading after gap down opening today.but on the back of sharp surge in US Futures therefore confirmations are required through sustaining above 5373.

All trends are up and finally sustaining above 5373 will mean rally continuation after minor correction completion. As lower levels intraday supports today and yesterday as well as trading above yesterday intraday selling range today therefore on going rally continuation possibilities turning higher.

Mid-session Outlook-2(11-09-2012)

Dow's Futures was more than 50 points down and also trading in Red since opening today but its sharp surge and now +35 trading triggered recovery in presently trading all Asian markets. 

Although today intraday supports at lower levels but today recovery is US Futures led also therefore confirmation is must through sustaining above 5373.

Mid-session Outlook(11-09-2012)

Nifty is trading between yesterday intraday supports range(5349-5358) after lower levels intraday supports today.As seliing was also seen between 5362-5373 yesterday therefore until Nifty will not sustain above 5373 till then next up moves will not be considered.

For next trend confirmations:-

1- Firstly watch sustaining beyond 5349-5358
2- Final confirmation will be sustaining beyond 5332-5373

Post-open Outlook(11-09-2012)

Negative zone trading after gap down trading but minor intraday recovery from lower levels and testing of yesterday intraday supports range(5349-5358) as well as trading just below it for the last one hour.

As sustaining below 5349 will be correction continuation and more down moves confirmation therefore should be firstly watched today.

Technical Analysis and Market Outlook(11-09-2012)

Nifty-Intra Day Chart (10-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in today intraday charts

1- Support between 5349-5358
2- Selling between 5362-5373
3- Whole day trading between 5349-5375

Conclusions from intra day chart analysis 

As both higher levels selling and lower levels buying were seen yesterday therefore following lines were told in Pre-Closing Outlook yesterday and being repeated today:-

"Next move first strong signal will be forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5350-5375 and should be firstly watched"

Pre-open Outlook(11-09-2012)

US markets closed in Red at the lowest of the day yesterday therefore sentiment weakened and most Asian markets are trading negative today morning as well as some opened gap down also. As depressed sentiment today and higher levels selling in Indian markets yesterday therefore firstly negative zone trading will be seen after weaker opening today.

Intraday supports were also seen 5349-5358 yesterday and sustaining below 5349 will be more down moves confirmations. Strong up moves were seen on 07-09-2012 after lower levels  good consolidations as well as strong supports were also seen. Following supports should be firstly watched for today started down moves completion/continuation confirmations;-

1- 5310-5325
2- 5260-5310(Gap support of 07-09-2012)
3- 5220-5230(Strong support)

Indian Stock Markets Closing Reports(10-Sep-2012)

Main features of today trading are as follows

1- Benchmark Indices closed positive with minor gains.
2- Whole day sideways trading.
3- Doji Candle formation.

Ratios

Nifty Put Call Ratio: 1.15
Nifty P/E Ratio(10-Sep-2012): 17.15

Advances & Declines

BSE Advances : 1499
BSE Declines : 1339
NSE Advances :  780
NSE Declines :  660

Nifty Open Interest Changed Today

Nifty- 5200 CE(Sep)- -186,500(-8.96%)
Nifty- 5200 PE(Sep)-  253,800(3.26%)

Nifty- 5300 CE(Sep)- 59,950(1.40%)
Nifty- 5300 PE(Sep)- 1,120,000(18.47%)

Nifty- 5400 CE(Sep)- 18,500(0.27%)
Nifty- 5400 PE(Sep)- -20,650(-0.72%)

Nifty- 5500 CE(Sep)- 589,000(9.19%)
Nifty- 5500 PE(Sep)- 299,150(32.05%)

Closing 

Nifty- closed at 5,363.45(4.75 Points & 0.09%)
Sensex- closed at 17,766.78(17.13 Points & 0.10% )
CNX Midcap - closed at 7,251.15(15.35 Points & 0.21%)
BSE SMLcap- closed at 6,541.65(45.42 Points & 0.70%)

FII & DII trading activity in Capital Market Segment on 10-Sep-2012

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 10-Sep-2012 2033.66 1340.93 692.73

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Julket Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 10-Sep-2012 665.1 983.42 -318.32

Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-09-2012

Nifty Spot-Levels

R3 5401
R2 5388
R1 5375
Avg 5362
S1 5349
S2 5336
S3 5323

Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy

H6 5389     Trgt 2
H5 5383     Trgt 1
H4 5377     Long breakout
H3 5370     Go Short
H2 5367
H1 5365
L1 5360
L2 5358
L3 5355     Long
L4 5348     Short Breakout
L5 5342     Trgt 1
L6 5336     Trgt 2

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-09-2012

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 5413
R2 5399
R1 5385
Avg 5371
S1 5357
S2 5343
S3 5329

Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6  5399    Trgt 2
H5  5392    Trgt 1
H4  5386    Long breakout
H3  5378    Go Short
H2  5376
H1  5373
L1  5368
L2  5365
L3  5363    Long
L4  5355    Short Breakout
L5  5349    Trgt 1
L6  5342    Trgt 2

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 11-09-2012

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Levels

R3 10325
R2 10262
R1 10179
Avg 10116
S1 10033
S2 9970
S3 9887

Bank Nifty(Sep Fut)-Trading Strategy

H6 10242     Trgt 2
H5 10209     Trgt 1
H4 10176     Long breakout
H3 10136     Go Short
H2 10122
H1 10109
L1 10082
L2 10069
L3 10055     Long
L4 10015     Short Breakout
L5  9982     Trgt 1
L6  9949     Trgt 2

Pre-Closing Outlook(10-09-2012)

Side ways market between 5,350-5,375 today with higher levels intraday selling and lower levels buying. Intraday correction expectations were updated in both previous Outlooks and it was seen also.

Following line was told in Mid-session Outlook today and being repeated because it will give next decisive moves confirmations:-

"Next move first strong signal will be forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5350-5375 and should be firstly watched"

Mid-session Outlook(10-09-2012)

Following line was told today in Rally continuation after correction completion

"firstly trade between last saturday  trading  range(5350-5366) and prepare for next moves"

Although today first 2 hours trading range is between 5350.40-5375.45 but Nifty traded most time within mentioned trading range(5350-5366).

Nesxt move first strong signal will be forceful break out or sustaining beyond 5350-5375 and should be firstly watched.

Rally continuation after correction completion

Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook

(Sep 10 to Sep 14,2012)

Nifty-EOD Chart (08-Sep-2012):-

Just click on chart for its enlarged view

Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts

1- 4531.15 on 20-12-2011
2- Wave-1(5629.95 on 22-02-2012)
3- Wave-2(4770.35 on 04-06-2012)
4- Sub Wave-1(5348.55 ON 10-07-2012)
5- Sub Wave-2(5032.40 on 26-07-2012)
6- Sub Wave-3(5448.40 on 23-08-2012)
7- Sub Wave-4(5215.70 on 05-09-2012)
8- Sub Wave-5 of Wave-3 is on after correction completion

Conclusions from EOD chart analysis 

All trends are up and closing near 10 days high on 08-09-2012 after huge gap up opening on 07-09-2012. Although no intraday selling seen in last 2 Bullish sessions but strong resistances between 5380-5450 therefore complete consolidations is required for rally above 5450. Sentiment is heated  and cooling down is a demand before next rally therefore some intraday correction may be firstly seen before next rally. As markets corrects at higher levels in Bullish markets therefore expected intraday correction may be seen at higher levels also if global sentiments turns strong.

Rally is on after correction completion and its continuation is expected in the coming week after complete follow up consolidations above 5320 and below 5450.

Pre-open Outlook(10-09-2012)

Although Asian markets are positive today morning but Indian markets have already shown up moves in short session last saturday therefore it is possible that Indian markets may not positively react good Asian markets mood today morning and firstly trade between last saturday  trading  range(5350-5366) and prepare for next moves.

Finally rally is expected after follow up consolidations.