European markets turned from half percent down to positive and Dow futures mpved up from 50 points down and to 15 points up also therefore spike seen in last 1 hour in Indian markets. As last 1 hour up move is news based therefore confirmation required for sustained up moves in the same manner as defined in Mid-session outlook-2 a short while ago today.
ॐ ह्रीं श्रीं लक्ष्मीभयो नमः॥
Mid-session outlook-2(07-03-2011)
Nifty broke first 3 hours range both sides today,Firstly down and then up. As sentiment is highly depressing and whole market turned seller therefore such voltality is being seen. Until market will not form solid base and cross minimum one crucial resistance will not clear till then any decisive up move will not be seen.
As intraday support seen at 5410 today therefore next trend preperation range is 5410-5580 and its break out will be watched for next moves confirmations. As market will be news based also therefore UPA and Libya news should also be seen for next immediate move confirmations.
Mid-session outlook(07-03-2011)
Nifty is trading within 5420-5455 for the last 3 hours today with intraday charts selling patterns. More down moves are possible.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(07-03-2011)
Gap down opening and firstly trading within 5450-5500 expected. Moves above 5540 not expected and finally Red closing will be seen after whole day weak trading.
Weak Market but Watch Break Out of 5200-5600
Weekly Analysis- 07-03-2011 to 11-03-2011
Rally seen in last week after Budget and closed little below weekly highs but selling seen at higher levels also in last week. Resistance levels are as follows:-
1- Immediate resistance range- 5540-5580
2- 200-Day EMA(Today at 5601)
Until Nifty will not sustain above 5580 till then any rally will not be imagined. Short and Intermediate term trends are up. Nifty faced resistance near 200-Day EMA 2 times in last 10 days and Long term trend is down. Intermediate term trend turned up after moving above 5520 in last week but seliing within 5540-5580 suggesting down confirm down moves. Following 2 National and international developments are main hurdle in Indian market rally:-
1- Libya and Middle-East countries geo-political problems are not going to resolve in short period and may take years to decades for stability and desired peace. Crude price hike will be hazardous for global economy,until it will not stabilise and confidence does not develop till then decisive rally will not be possible.
2- DMK withdrawing support from UPA Govt. will pose political uncertainity in the coming week and will push Indian markets down.
Both above news will create confusion and sentiment will remin depressed therefore Confirm down moves will be seen in the begining of coming week. Markets does not moves up in confusions therefore due to above mentioned news markets will not move up until confusion clouds will not clear.
As Indian markets post Budget bubble has been burst and markets showed hesitation to cross 200 Day EMA therefore down moves possibility is high and following possibilities will be kept in mind:-
1- Down moves begining and testing of levels near 5200.
2- Moving below 5200 will mean Nifty below 5000 and more lower levels possibility as well.
Big move trend deciding range Chart:-
5200 was strong support and Nifty gave support 2 times in last one month as well as 200-Day EMA(Today at 5601) has also shown resistance 2 times in last 10 days. Firstly Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5200-5600 and down moves toward 5200 will also be seen first. Indian markets will discount Budget,Middle-East and DMK withdrawing support issues within mentioned range and if some relief is seen in mentioned two problems then market will remain within mentioned range otherwise 5200 will be broken down and this possibility is high also.
5200-5600 is big move trend deciding range because sustaining above 5600 will mean sustaining above 200 Day EMA and turning up of all the trends as well as worst is over. On the other hand Nifty sustaining below 5200 will be confirmation of Long term trend failing to turn up and continuation of down moves to test levels below 5000.
Firstly weak begining of week and travelling towards 5200 will be seen. If mentioned 2 issues does not show any positive developments and relief then more down moves will be seen. More or less Indian markets are expected within 5200-5520 in this week. If mentioned 2 issues situations does not deteriorate then whole week trading and closing within 5200-5600 will be seen otherwise Nifty below 5200.
Nifty Spot-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2011
R3 5673
R2 5640
R1 5589
Avg 5556
S1 5505
S2 5472
S3 5421
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy
H6 5622 Trgt 2
H5 5603 Trgt 1
H4 5584 Long breakout
H3 5561 Go Short
H2 5553
H1 5545
L1 5530
L2 5522
L3 5514 Long
L4 5491 Short Breakout
L5 5472 Trgt 1
L6 5453 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2011
R3 5552
R2 5581
R1 5558
Avg 5587
S1 5564
S2 5593
S3 5570
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 5529 Trgt 2
H5 5530 Trgt 1
H4 5531 Long breakout
H3 5533 Go Short
H2 5533
H1 5534
L1 5535
L2 5536
L3 5536 Long
L4 5538 Short Breakout
L5 5539 Trgt 1
L6 5540 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Levels & Trading Strategy for 07-03-2011
R3 11344
R2 11249
R1 11108
Avg 11013
S1 10872
S2 10777
S3 10636
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy
H6 11204 Trgt 2
H5 11150 Trgt 1
H4 11096 Long breakout
H3 11031 Go Short
H2 11010
H1 10988
L1 10945
L2 10923
L3 10902 Long
L4 10837 Short Breakout
L5 10783 Trgt 1
L6 10729 Trgt 2
Nifty Spot-Weekly Levels & Trading Strategy(07 Feb to 11 Mar 2011)
R3 5960
R2 5784
R1 5661
Avg 5485
S1 5362
S2 5186
S3 5063
Nifty Spot-Weekly Trading Strategy
H6 5849 Trgt 2
H5 5776 Trgt 1
H4 5702 Long breakout
H3 5620 Go Short
H2 5592
H1 5565
L1 5510
L2 5483
L3 5455 Long
L4 5373 Short Breakout
L5 5299 Trgt 1
L6 5226 Trgt 2
Pre-closing outlook(04-03-2011)
Indian markets Sharply slipped in last 30 minutes after North Yemen internal disturbance news. As per my view be Bullish either after settling down of Middle-East problems or Nifty sustaining above 5600.
If Nifty sustains below 5520 then it will be Bear market confirmation.
If Nifty sustains below 5520 then it will be Bear market confirmation.
Mid-session outlook-2(04-03-2011)
Nifty trading within 5545-5580 for the last 4 hours
Nifty Mar Fut is trading within 5538-5580 for the last 4 hours
Next move first confirmation will be break out of above ranges.
Nifty Mar Fut is trading within 5538-5580 for the last 4 hours
Next move first confirmation will be break out of above ranges.
Watch 5520-5600 Break Out for only next big move
Global sentiment was boiling today morning and Indian markets showed under performing indications therefore profit booking possibility was told immediately after opening in Post-open outlook today and also gave up move confirmation level at 5590.
Following intraday selling ranges were seen and also given in Pre-closing outlook yesterday:-
1- Nifty Mar Fut selling within 5470-5595 yesterday
2- Nifty spot selling within 5540-5570 yesterday
Nifty Mar Fut is showing weakness and trading below yesterday selling range while Nifty spot trading within yesterday selling range. As sentiment was extremely heated today morning therefore such intraday correction was possible and is being seen at this moment. Until Nifty spot is trading above 5520 till then up move hopes are alive and rally begining confirmation level is sustaining above 5600.
5520-5600 is trend confirmation range and break out conclusion of this range is as follows:-
1- Sustaining below 5520 will mean strong at resistance 200-Day EMA and intermediate term trend turning down and weakness confirmation also.
2- Sustaining above 5600 will be most Bullish confirmation because in that situation all trends will be up and will open the gate of strong rally.
Watch 5520-5600 Break Out for only next trend and big move confirmation. Although Indian markets moved from higher levels today but rally hopes are very much alive.
Post-open outlook(04-03-2011)
Sentiment heated and strong gap up opening today but profit booking also develop in such heated mood also therefore sustaining above 5590 is must and should be watched also for up move confirmations.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(04-03-2011)
Nifty closed above 5520 yesterday and sustaining above is confirmation of intermediate term trend turning up and clearing of a strong resistance also. 200-Day EMA(today at 5602) testing expected now,sustaining above will be strong rally confirmation and it is expected as well.
Sustaining above 5590 today will be strong signal of strong rally begining in Indian markets after gap up opening and it is expected also. Green closing expected after whole day positive zone trading.
Trading Levels for 04-03-2011
R3 5683
R2 5626
R1 5581
Avg 5524
S1 5479
S2 5422
S3 5377
Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 04-03-2011
R3 5721
R2 5659
R1 5601
Avg 5539
S1 5481
S2 5419
S3 5361
Bank Nifty(Mar Futures)- Levels for 04-03-2011
R3 11455
R2 11287
R1 11117
Avg 10949
S1 10779
S2 10611
S3 10441
Nifty Spot-Trading Strategy for 04-03-2011
H5 5615 Trgt 1
H4 5592 Long breakout
H3 5564 Go Short
H2 5554
H1 5545
L1 5526
L2 5517
L3 5507 Long
L4 5479 Short Breakout
L5 5456 Trgt 1
L6 5432 Trgt 2
Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 04-03-2011
H5 5637 Trgt 1
H4 5610 Long breakout
H3 5577 Go Short
H2 5566
H1 5555
L1 5533
L2 5522
L3 5511 Long
L4 5478 Short Breakout
L5 5450 Trgt 1
L6 5422 Trgt 2
Bank Nifty(Mar Fut)-Trading Strategy for 04-03-2011
H5 11211 Trgt 1
H4 11132 Long breakout
H3 11039 Go Short
H2 11008
H1 10977
L1 10916
L2 10885
L3 10854 Long
L4 10761 Short Breakout
L5 10682 Trgt 1
L6 10603 Trgt 2
Pre-closing outlook(03-03-2011)
When sentiment was most heated after Libyan peace agreement news then at that time following conclusive line was told in Mid-session outlook today:-
"Just watch sustaining above 5520 and if Nifty sustains above 5520 today then fresh rally will resume in Indian stock markets"
Nifty could not sustain above 5520 and slipped fast to 5481. News based huge voltality and technical positions reverses fast in such voltality.Selling within 5540-5570 and buying within 5470-5000 today therefore Nifty will trade within today range(5470-5595) in the coming sessions and break out of today range will give confirmation to next decisive moves in Indian markets.
Nifty trading near 5520 at this moment and firstly watch its sustaining side(above or below) of 5520 and then break out of today range because that will give confirmation to:-
1- Final reaction of Indian market on Budget 2011-12
2- Libyan problem final impact on Indian markets.
Mid-session outlook(03-03-2011)
Gaddafi accepted peace plan to end crisis in LIbya.Gaddafi Arab League Pres agrees on peace plan.
Nifty crossed and sustaining above 5520 after news announcement. Just watch sustaining above 5520 and if Nifty sustains above 5520 roday then fresh rally will resume in Indian stock markets.
Pre-Open Market Outlook(03-03-2011)
1- Nifty crossed and closed above upper line of falling channel.
2- Nifty got support near strong support at 5210.
3- Higher bottom formationwith intraday consolidation patterns last Friday.
4- MACD moved up after getting support at average line in MACD oscillator
Bullish Signals in EOD chart:-
Long term trend is down,short term is up,intermediate term is side ways,trend decider is 5520 and upmove confirmation point is sustaining above 200-Day EMA(today at 5603). Rally started from 5177 showed bullish signals and those are shown in above chart but sustainibility above 5520 is key and will give confirmation to next up moves in Indian markets.
Crude price hike and Libyan internal disturbance are immediate concern for global stock markets therefore all correctly sharply yesterday,Indian markets were closed and will react through Red zone trading today. Indian markets showed posive mood after Budget last Monday will react on above points and expected petroleum price hike today.
It will be fair to watch intraday patterns today and then decide and tell for next Indian markets otherwise will be guessing only.
Today expected first range is 5435-5470 and break out of this range will give next move confirmation. Up move confirmation point is 5520 and be cautious below 5435.
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