Weekly Analysis- 07-03-2011 to 11-03-2011
Rally seen in last week after Budget and closed little below weekly highs but selling seen at higher levels also in last week. Resistance levels are as follows:-
1- Immediate resistance range- 5540-5580
2- 200-Day EMA(Today at 5601)
Until Nifty will not sustain above 5580 till then any rally will not be imagined. Short and Intermediate term trends are up. Nifty faced resistance near 200-Day EMA 2 times in last 10 days and Long term trend is down. Intermediate term trend turned up after moving above 5520 in last week but seliing within 5540-5580 suggesting down confirm down moves. Following 2 National and international developments are main hurdle in Indian market rally:-
1- Libya and Middle-East countries geo-political problems are not going to resolve in short period and may take years to decades for stability and desired peace. Crude price hike will be hazardous for global economy,until it will not stabilise and confidence does not develop till then decisive rally will not be possible.
2- DMK withdrawing support from UPA Govt. will pose political uncertainity in the coming week and will push Indian markets down.
Both above news will create confusion and sentiment will remin depressed therefore Confirm down moves will be seen in the begining of coming week. Markets does not moves up in confusions therefore due to above mentioned news markets will not move up until confusion clouds will not clear.
As Indian markets post Budget bubble has been burst and markets showed hesitation to cross 200 Day EMA therefore down moves possibility is high and following possibilities will be kept in mind:-
1- Down moves begining and testing of levels near 5200.
2- Moving below 5200 will mean Nifty below 5000 and more lower levels possibility as well.
Big move trend deciding range Chart:-
5200 was strong support and Nifty gave support 2 times in last one month as well as 200-Day EMA(Today at 5601) has also shown resistance 2 times in last 10 days. Firstly Indian markets will be understood range bound within 5200-5600 and down moves toward 5200 will also be seen first. Indian markets will discount Budget,Middle-East and DMK withdrawing support issues within mentioned range and if some relief is seen in mentioned two problems then market will remain within mentioned range otherwise 5200 will be broken down and this possibility is high also.
5200-5600 is big move trend deciding range because sustaining above 5600 will mean sustaining above 200 Day EMA and turning up of all the trends as well as worst is over. On the other hand Nifty sustaining below 5200 will be confirmation of Long term trend failing to turn up and continuation of down moves to test levels below 5000.
Firstly weak begining of week and travelling towards 5200 will be seen. If mentioned 2 issues does not show any positive developments and relief then more down moves will be seen. More or less Indian markets are expected within 5200-5520 in this week. If mentioned 2 issues situations does not deteriorate then whole week trading and closing within 5200-5600 will be seen otherwise Nifty below 5200.