Watch Levels,Resistances & supports
after Indo-Pak war beginning
& its escalation possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(May 05 to May 09,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (02-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.
3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and Pull Back Rally beginning from this level.
6- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 24589.15 on 02-05-2025.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 after Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at this level which completed after new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and from this level corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction started.
Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and from this level Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024 and from this level corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation with it recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025. Pull Back Rally started from this level which is now in continuation with its recent top formations at 24589.15 on 02-05-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (02-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing below Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 75.70 & %D(3)- 76.63.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 678.89 & EXP(9)- 366.07 & Divergence- 312.82
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing below Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is not showing confirm signals of Short Term downward moves. Let Downward intersection happen then decisive downward moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming upward trend formations and resultant on going upward moves will remain continued.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (02-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24276(Very Short Term Trend decider)
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23569(Short Term Trend decider)
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 23137(Intermediate Term Trend decider)
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 23399
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 24050(Long Term Trend decider)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed well above Short and Intermediate Term Trends deciders 21 & 55-Day SMAs last Friday therefore these 2 trends are up but Long Term Trend is at stake because Nifty has hovered around its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 24050) in the last 8 sessions. Most time trading after Pahalgam terrorist attack from 22-04-2025 was within 193 points with much slower upward moves between 24109-24402 therefore it will be understood that Indian markets are preparing for next bigger moves within this trading range and finally sustaining beyond this trading range will confirm Long Term Trend according to sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA is which is today at 24050.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(02-May-2025)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (02-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- More than 200 points sharp up in first half hour after negative opening.
2- Selling between 24513-24589.
3- 349 Points fall in little more than 2 hours.
4- Consolidation between 24239-24319
5- Selling between 24361-24399
7- Volatility in last hours between 24284-24399
8- Whole day trading between 24239-24589
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly more than 200 points sharp upward moves in first half hour after negative opening but higher levels selling developed therefore 349 Points fall was seen in Mid-session. As lower levels consolidation developed and after that some upward moves were also seen but again selling developed and Volatility was in last hours.
As it is clear from last Friday intraday chart analysis that whole day Mixed Patterns formations developed between 24239-24589 therefore firstly Nifty will trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about this trading range as well as finally sustaining it beyond will confirm next decisive moves beginning hence it should be finally watched in the coming week for next decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at stake.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is up.
Although on going Pull Back Rally has gained 2845.45 points from the recent bottom of corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 which is also in continuation with its recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 but still no confirmations of Long Term Trend turning up because Nifty is hovering around Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA for the last 9 sessions which is today at 24050 and Nifty not sustained above it yet. Let firstly Nifty to sustain beyond Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA then that bigger decisive moves will be seen according to its sustaining beyond.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is signalling Short Term downward moves beginning possibility but another Short Term indicator MACD is confirming upward trend formations therefore finally upward moves beginning possibility can not be ruled out after Short Term correction completion.
As Indo-Pak war may start any day and after that one sided bigger moves and high volatility may also be seen therefore firstly following 2 levels should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next one sided bigger moves beginning after that side Long Term Trend formation confirmations:-
1- 24109-24402(Last 8 sessions 193 points most time trading range from 22-04-2025 after Pahalgam terrorist attack)
2- 23848-24589(Last 8 sessions actual trading range)
Next resistances above these 2 trading ranges are as follows:-
1- 24568-24624
2- 24725-24790
Next supports below 1st trading ranges are as follows:-
1- 23865-23967
2- 23274-23370
As big uncertainty after Indo-Pak war beginning and its escalation possibility and Long Term Trend is also at stake therefore firstly Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 24050) and finally sustaining beyond above mentioned Levels,Resistances and supports should be watched one by one for next that side one sided moves beginning confirmations.