Indo-Pak war escalation/de-escalation situation & accordingly valid break out/down of last 13 sessions trading range will confirm next bigger moves beginning
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(May 12 to May 16,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
7- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
8- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.
11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and Pull Back Rally beginning from this level.
12- Pull Back Rally completion indications with recent top formations at 24589.15 on 02-05-2025.
13- Last 13 sessions trading between 23848-24589
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous waves structure completion at this level. Impulsive Wave-1 started from this level which completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 stated from this level which completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-2023 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B started from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C begun which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this level.
Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this levels which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. From this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.Pull Back Rally started from this level which is now in continuation with its recent top formations at 24589.15 on 02-05-2025 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD charts. Last 13 sessions trading between 23848-24589 amid Indo-Pak war situation and its final Break out/down will be according to War escalation/de-escalation situation therefore finally sustaining beyond this range should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next one sided decisive moves beginning confirmations.
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Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 31.88 & %D(3)- 44.78.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 577.78 & EXP(9)- 627.40 & Divergence- -49.62
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone and not turned Over sold yet therefore it will be understood that Short Term correction is very much on and will remain continued also in the coming week.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is signalling downward trend formations and resultant downward moves beginning possibility also in the coming week.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (09-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24307(Very Short Term Trend decider)
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23825(Short Term Trend decider)
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 23226(Intermediate Term Trend decider)
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 23382
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 24044(Long Term Trend decider)
Conclusions from EOD
chart analysis (Averages)
As Nifty has closed well above Short and Intermediate Term Trends deciders 21 & 55-Day SMAs last Friday therefore these 2 trends are up but Long Term Trend is at stake because Nifty has closed below its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 24044) last Friday- Firstly sustaining Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA should be watched in the coming week/weeks for next Long Term Trend formation confirmations because finally it will decide and confirm next bigger and decisive one sided moves beginning.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(09-May-2025)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (09-May-2025):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 228 Points sharp fall from intraday higher levels in first hour after negative opening.
2- More than 5 hours trading with consolidation like Patterns formation between 23963-24044
3- Whole day trading between 23936-24164
Conclusions from intra day
chart analysis
Although firstly some upward moves after negative opening but immediately after that 228 Points sharp fall was also seen from intraday higher levels in first hour. As more than 5 hours trading was with consolidation like Patterns formation between 23963-24044 last Friday therefore upward moves are expected towards the highest(24044) of last Friday in the beginning of next week but finally sustaining beyond 23963-24044 should also be watched for next decisive moves beginning confirmation because finally next decisive moves will be seen according to on going Indo-Pak war situation.
Conclusions (After putting
all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Long Term Trend is at stake.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 of that Waves structure completed at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 of which Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022.Now its corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Pull Back Rally started from this level which is also in continuation with its recent top formations at 24589.15 on 02-05-2025 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD charts As last 13 sessions sideways trading was between 23848-24589 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life and length of on going Pull Back Rally and next Trend also therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for its confirmations.
As both Short Term indicators Stochastic and MACD are signalling downward moves beginning possibility and Long Term Trend is also at Stake as well as finally sustaining beyond last 13 sessions sideways trading range(23848-24589) will confirm next one sided bigger moves beginning and next Trends formations also therefore it should be finally watched in the coming week/weeks for all these confirmations. All these Indian Stock Markets moves will be according to on going Indo-Pak war escalation/de-escalation situation therefore it should also be watched with sustaining beyond last 13 sessions sideways trading range.