Watch levels for next Trend formations after emergence of Indo-Pak war beginning and its escalation possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 28 to May 02,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Apr-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
7- Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
8- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of "ABC" correction beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024.
11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and Pull Back Rally beginning from this level.
12- Pull Back Rally continuation with recent top formations at 24359.30 on 23-04-2025.
13- Last 5 Sessions trading between 23848-24359
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous waves structure completion at this level. Impulsive Wave-1 started from this level which completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 stated from this level which completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-2023 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B started from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C begun which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 started from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this level.
Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this levels which completed at 24857.80 on 05-12-2024. From this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Pull Back Rally started from this level which remained continued strongly also but turned sideways in the last 5 sessions of previous week between 23848-24359 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life and length of on going Pull Back Rally.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Apr-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 74.53 & %D(3)- 87.62.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- 422.22 & EXP(9)- 62.24 & Divergence- 359.98
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Short Term indicator Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling from Over bought zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming Short Term correction beginning which may be seen in the coming week.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming Short Term upward trend formations and resultant on going upward moves continuation possibility also.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (25-Apr-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 24182(Very Short Term Trend decider)
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 23430(Short Term Trend decider)
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 23082(Intermediate Term Trend decider)
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 23399
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 24051(Long Term Trend decider)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Although Nifty has closed well above Short and Intermediate Term Trend decider 21 & 55-Day SMAs last Friday therefore these Trends confirmly up but Long Term Trends is at stake because Nifty has closed little below its decider 200-Day SMA last Friday. As finally sustaining beyond Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA will generate one sided bigger decisive moves after that side Long Term Trend formations therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for that side next bigger and decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(25-Apr-2025)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (25-Apr-2025):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 275 Points sharp fall in first hour
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Down moves with upward corrections
5- More than 5 hours trading between 23848-24278
6- Whole day trading between 23848-24365
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As Indo-Pak war beginning and its escalation possibility developed after Pahalgam Muslim Terrorists severe violent attack on innocent Hindu Tourists on 20-04-2025 therefore firstly 275 Points sharp fall was seen in first hour last Friday. Although firstly such sharp fall but after that further Downward moves were in Bullish Falling Channel in next hours therefore upward moves started from lower levels. As these Mid-session upward moves were in Bearish Rising Channel therefore Nifty could not sustain after some rise and again Downward moves started in last hours. As these downward moves were upward corrections therefore it will be understood that intraday selling patterns were also formed in last hours.
It is clear from the last more than 5 hours intraday trading patterns formations that Nifty traded more than 5 hours between 23848-24278 with both intraday consolidation and selling trading patterns formations therefore Nifty is not prepared for immediate one sided intraday decisive moves beginning and firstly will trade as well as prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 23848-24278 in the beginning of next week. Finally sustaining beyond this trading range should be watched in the beginning of next week for next one sided decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions (After putting
all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is up.
3- Long Term Trend is at stake.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 of that Waves structure completed at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 of which Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022.Now its corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21743.70 on 07-04-2025 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Pull Back Rally started from this level which is also in continuation with its recent top formations at 24359.30 on 23-04-2025 and no confirmation of its completion also on EOD charts As last 5 sessions sideways trading was between 23848-24359 and finally sustaining beyond this range will confirm the life and length of on going Pull Back Rally therefore it should be firstly watched in the begining of next week.
As in Short Term indicator Stochastic is confirming Short Term correction beginning which may be seen in the coming week but another Short Term indicator MACD is confirming Short Term upward trend formations and resultant on going upward moves continuation possibility also. As MACD indicator generates signals little later therefore as per Stochastic indicator firstly downward moves are more expected in the coming week/weeks.
It is confirm that Indo-Pak war beginning and its escalation possibility can not be ruled out in the coming weeks/months after Terrorists attack on 22-04-2025 therefore remain cautious because Stock markets never moves up during uncertainty and until this situation prevails till then following levels should be watched one by one for next Trend formations and accordingly that side next decisive moves beginning:-
1- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 24051).
2- More than 5 hours trading range(23848-24278) of last Friday.
3- Last 5 Sessions trading range(23848-24359).
4- Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA(today at 23082)
5- Short Term Trend decider 21-Day SMA(today at 23430)