Watch 3 crucial levels one by one for next trend formations and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 06 to Jan 10,2025)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024.
10- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024.
11- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024
12- Last 11 sessions trading between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening on 19-12-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and from this level impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun which completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 started which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 begun from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.40 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 started which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023. Wave-B begun from this level which completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun from this level which completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started from this level.
Corrective Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completed at 23263.20 on 21-11-2024 and Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 begun from this levels which completed at 24792.30 on 13-12-2024 and from this levels corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 started which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts. Last 11 sessions trading was between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening below 24150 on 19-12-2024 and this huge gap was filled up after 483 points strong rally and Nifty closed above 24150 at 24188.7 on 02-01-2025. As finally sustaining beyond last 11 sessions trading range(23460.50-24226.70) will confirm the lenth of on going corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 and with it on going "ABC" correction also therefore should be watched for both these trends formation confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Last 11 sessions trading between 23460.50-24226.70 after 277 points gap down opening on 19-12-2024.
21- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 75.04 & %D(3)- 58.75.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- -391.63 & EXP(9)- -290.57 & Divergence- -101.06
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone and have not turned Over bought yet therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing on going Short Term upward moves continuation possibility.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is confirming Downward Trend formation and signalling more downward moves possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23845
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24170
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 24189
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24626
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23899
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is trading between and near about Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA and Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA for the last 12 sessions as well as hovering around Short Term Trend decider 21-Day SMA for the last 2 sessions therefore it will be understood that now all the trends are at stake. Finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA or 200-Day SMA will confirm next Trend formations and resultant that side decisive moves will beginning therefore it should be watched for all the trends formation and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(03-Jan-2025)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Jan-2025):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Whole day down moves in Bullish Falling Channels
2- Sharp up moves
3- 3 Times selling in sideways trading range.
4- Whole day actual trading between 23976-24196
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although flat opening but after that immediately downward moves started which remain continued till last minutes and Nifty closed 0.76% down also last Friday. As Whole day down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels which is a consolidation pattern also therefore once sharp up moves were seen but selling also developed 3 times in sideways trading range therefore whole day Mixed Patterns formations will be understood last Friday.
As whole day down moves were in Bullish Falling Channels therefore up ward moves are expected within last Friday trading range but until complete consolidation patterns will not develop till then Nifty will not be able to move above last Friday highest and fresh selling will not mean correction continuation below last Friday lowest also therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday trading range should be watched in next week for 1st signal generation of next decisive moves beginning.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at stake.
2- Intermediate Term trend at stake.
3- Short Term Trend is at stake.
Now corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 of that Waves structure is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23460.50 on 31-12-2024 which begun through its impulsive Wave-1 from 15183.40 on 17-06-2022. As no confirmation of on going Wave- C completion yet therefore firstly sustaining beyond levels will be watched in the coming week/weeks for its continuation/completion confirmations.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of some more upward moves possibility in next week but another Short Term indicator MACD is confirming Downward Trend formations therefore finally fresh downward moves beginning possibility can not be ruled out after some upward moves.
As last Friday intraday trading was also seen with Mixed Patterns formations between 23976-24196 therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched for 1st signal of next trend formations. It should be kept ion mind that finally sustaining beyond last 11 sessions trading range(23460.50-24226.70) will confirm the length of on going corrective Wave-C therefore should be watched for the life of on going "ABC" correction also.
Averages are suggesting that firstly Nifty will move between 55-Day SMA(today at 24189) and 200-Day SMA(today at 23899) in the coming week therefore finally sustaining beyond these 2 SMAs should be watched in the coming week/weeks for on going correction completion confirmations through sustaining above 55-Day SMA and/or correction continuation confirmations through sustaining below 200-Day SMA.
Firstly and finally sustaining beyond following 3 crucial levels should be watched one by one in the coming week/weeks for next trend formations and that side decisive moves beginning confirmations:-
1- Last Friday trading range(23976-24196)
2- Last 11 sessions trading range(23461-24226)
3- 55-Day SMA(today at 24189)-200-Day SMA(today at 23899)