Long Term Trend is at stake & Levels will confirm its formation that side bigger moves beginning
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 18 to Nov 22,2024
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Nov-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
5- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
6- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
8- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and corrective Wave-4 beginning.
9- Corrective Wave-4 continuation with recent bottom formations at 23484.20 on 14-11-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022. Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and impulsive Wave-3 started from this level.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completed at 20222.4 on 15-09-20235 and from this level corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 begun which completed at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023 and Wave-B begun from this level. Wave-B completed at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023 and Wave-C started from this levels which completed at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 begun started this level.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed with new life time top formations at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and Intermediate Term correction of Wave-4 started which is now in continuation with its recent bottom formations at 23484.20 on 14-11-2024. and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Nov-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- Its both lines %K(5) and %D(3) are kissing in Over sold zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 5.67 & %D(3)- 18.51.
3- MACD- In MACD Its both MACD line and Average line are kissing in negative zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- -351.03 & EXP(9)- -443.69 & Divergence- 92.66
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic its both %K(5) and %D(3) lines are kissing within Over sold zone therefore it will be understood Indian markets are completely Oversold. Whenever its both lines will move above Oversold Zone after its lines upward intersection then decisive upward moves will be seen.
2- As in MACD its both MACD line and Average line are kissing in negative zone therefore it will be understood that at present this indicator is not showing any side next trend formations and decisive moves beginning signals. Let any side clear intersection happen then that side next Short term decisive moves will be seen after next Short Term Trend formations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (14-Nov-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 23852
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 24270
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 244925
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 24719
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 23556
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Short and Intermediate Term Trends were already down and in previous week Nifty has tested Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA also in last 2 sessions as well as Nifty closed below it in last trading session i.e. last Thursday therefore it will be understood that Long Term Trend is at stake as well as once sustaining below it will mean deeper correction beginning after Long Term Trend turning down confirmations. As finally sustaining beyond 200-Day SMA will confirm that side bigger moves beginning therefore it should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for that side bigger moves beginning after that Long Term Trend formations confirmations .
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(14-Nov-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (14-Nov-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 120 Points down in first half hour
2- 172 Points sharp jump in 25 minutes.
3- Downward moves in Bullish Falling Channel
4- More than 4 hours consolidation Patterns formation between 23485-23569
5- Whole day actual trading between 23485-23675
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly 120 points down in first half hour but after that 172 points sharp jump was also seen in the next 25 minutes. As after this first hour high volatility firstly downward moves were seen in Bullish Falling Channel which is a consolidation pattern and then follow up more than 4 hours consolidation in sideways market through consolidation Patterns formation between 23485-23569 therefore it will be understood that good intraday consolidation pattern developed last Thursday.
As in previous trading session ie last Thursday good intraday consolidation patterns were seen therefore firstly strong bounce back or Pull Back Rally beginning will be seen in next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is at stake.
2- Intermediate Term trend is down.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed at 26277.30 on 27-09-2024 and from this level Corrective Wave-4 started which is now in continuation with recent bottom formations at 23484.20 on 14-11-2024 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts
Averages are confirming that Short and Intermediate Term Trends are down and Long Term Trend is at stake as well as finally sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA will confirm its next Trend in the coming week/weeks.
As Short Term indicators are Over sold and last Thursday intraday charts are showing good intraday consolidation therefore firstly upward moves or strong bounce back or Pull Back Rally beginning will be seen in the beginning of next week therefore firstly sustaining beyond following next resistances should be watched in the next week/weeks for the life and length of expected upward moves;-
1- 23915-24034
2- 24091-24242
3- 24264-24315
Next supports below last Friday closing are as follows:-
1- 23502-23530
2- 23358-23476
3- 23161-23206
4- 22961-23096
5- 22760-22871
6- 22291-22395
7- 21884-22191
8- 21502-21582
9- 21417-21500
Fibonacci Retracement Crucial levels of Wave-(iii) of Wave-3(18837.80-26277.30) are as follows which should also be watched for next Trend formation first indication and final confirmations:-
38.2%- 23,435 (Crucial Level)
50.0%- 22,557 (Crucial Level)
61.8%- 21,679 (Crucial Level)
Certainly Long Term Trend is at stake and firstly sustaining beyond above levels should be watched for its finally formation that side bigger moves beginning confirmations.