Firstly watch next resistances amid
finally on going correction
continuation expectations
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 26 to Mar 28,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.40 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.60 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.80 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22526.60 on 11-03-2024.
11- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 21710.20 on 20-03-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and from this level Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started. Impulsive Wave-1 completed at 18887.60 on 01-12-2022 and corrective Wave-2 started from this level which completed at 16828.30 on 20-03-2023.
Impulsive Wave-3 begun from 16828.30 on 20-03-2023 and now its Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22526.60 on 11-03-2024 as well as no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction begun from this levels which is in continuation with recent bottom formations at 21710.20 on 20-03-2024.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22526.60 on 11-03-2024.
3- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottom formations at 21710.20 on 20-03-2024.
4- Bearish Rising Wedge pattern formations.
5- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.
6- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 60.40 & %D(3)- 37.91.
7- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone.
8- MACD(26,12)- -132.30 & EXP(9)- 59.62 & Divergence- -191.92
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows;-
Although Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22526.60 on 11-03-2024 and no confirmation of its completion yet but "Bearish Rising Wedge" pattern formation has also being seen which is now more than 2 months old also therefore it means that deeper correction beginning signals have been emerged on EOD charts. Technical positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone and till now not turned Over bought therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing some more up moves possibility in the coming sessions.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive and negative zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is showing stronger signals of downward trend formations and decisive down moves beginning possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (22-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 21964
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 22170
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 21914
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 21268
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 20350
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is well above Long Term trend Decider 200-Day SMA therefore it will be understood that Long Term trend is up but Short and Intermediate Term trends are at stake because:-
1- Nifty has closed(22096.75) below Short Term trend Decider 21-Day SMA and above 5-Day SMA last Friday.
2- Nifty has closed(22096.75) below Intermediate Term trend Decider 55-Day SMA last Friday.
3- Nifty is hovering around 5,21,55-Day SMAs for the last 8 sessions.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(22-Mar-2024)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (22-Mar-2024):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- 48 Points more downward moves after 79 points weaker opening
2- Up moves with downward corrections
3- Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel
4- Selling between 2106-22180
5- Whole day actual trading between 21884-22180
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although firstly 48 points more downward moves after 79 points weaker opening but lower levels consolidation was seen through up moves with downward corrections in first hour. As selling patterns developed firstly through Up moves in Bearish Rising Channel and after that higher levels selling also in last hour between 2106-22180 as well as lower levels consolidation patterns formations therefore last Friday whole day trading will be understood with Mixed Patterns formation between 21884-22180.
As one sided intraday trading patterns were not seen last Friday therefore expected that Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within and near about 21884-22180 in the beginning of next week. Let Nifty prepare for it then will be decided according to coming sessions intraday patterns formations and finally next decisive moves confirmation will be after sustaining beyond or forceful break out/down of 21884-22180.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is at stake.
3- Short Term Trend is at stake.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22526.60 on 11-03-2024. Although no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts but Short Term correction begun from this this levels which is in continuation with its recent bottom formations at 21710.20 on 20-03-2024 and no confirmation of its completion also.
As "Bearish Rising Wedge" pattern formation has been seen on EOD charts which is now more than 2 months old also as well as Short Term correction has already begun therefore once sustaining below on going correction lowest(21710.20) should be watched in the coming week for life and length of on going Short Term correction.
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is showing signals of some more up moves possibility but MACD is indicating decisive down moves beginning possibility after emergence of Short Term Trend turning down signals in MACD indicator. Its means that finally down moves will be seen below the lowest(21710.20) of on going correction after some up moves:-
Next supports below last Friday closing are as follows;-
1- 21886-22019
2- 21795-21860
3- 21711-21791
4- 21653-21690
5- 21544-21628
As finally down moves are expected after some up moves in next week therefore firstly sustaining beyond following resistances which are above last Friday closing should be watched in the coming week for the life of expected some up moves:-
1- 22100-22204
2- 22346-22452
3- 22494-22523