Finally correction continuation below
18801 in the coming months
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Jan 23 to Jan 25,2024)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.6 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.8 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22124.2 on 16-01-2024.
11- Short Term correction continuation with recent bottm formation at 21539.4 on 18-01-2024.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completion at this level. Now its Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation with its recent high and new life time top formations at 22124.2 on 16-01-2024.
Although no confirmation of on going Wave-(v) of Wave-3 completion yet on EOD charts but Bearish Rising Wedge Pattern formation was seen and Short Term correction begun in previous week which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 21539.4 on 18-01-2024 as well as rising Lower line of Bearish Rising Wedge was broken down on 18-01-2024
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Rising Lower line of Bearish Rising Wedge Pattern broken down on 18-01-2024
2- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 21.66 & %D(3)- 40.40.
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 115.81 & EXP(9)- 180.68 & Divergence- -64.87
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Position of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- As in Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone and Short Term Trend has not turned Oversold yet therefore it will be understood that this indicator is signalling some more down moves possibility in the coming week.
2- As in MACD indicator MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in positive zone therefore it will be understood that this indicator is signalling down moves continuation with Short Term Trend turning downward possibility also.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 21757
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 21643
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 20749
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 20228
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 19494
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty is hovering about Short Term Trends decider 21-Day SMA for the last 3 sessions therefore Short Term Trend is at stake. Let Nifty to sustain one side then Short Term Trend will be decided accordingly. Nifty is well above Intermediate Term Trends decider 55-Day SMA and Long Term Trends decider 200-Day SMA hence both these Trends are up,
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Jan-2024):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 started from 16747.7 on 30-09-2022
2- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 completion expectations at 22124.2 on 16-01-2024.
3- Fibonacci Retracement levels from Wave-(i) of Wave-3 to Wave-(v) of Wave-3(16747.7-22124.2)
13.0%- 21,425
23.6%- 20,855
27.0%- 20,672
38.2%- 20,070(Crucial Level)
50.0%- 19,436(Crucial Level)
61.8%- 18,801(Crucial Level)
70.7%- 18,323
76.4%- 18,016
78.6%- 17,898
88.6%- 17,360
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Previous week started correction was of Wave-(v) of Wave-3. As this correction is of Wave-(v) therefore once correction beginning confirmation will mean it will correct 5376.5 points up moves of Wave-3 which started from 16747.7 and completed at 22124.2. Fibonacci retracement levels have been posted above which should be watched after expected correction continuation confirmations.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.
3- Short Term Trend is at stake and its turning downward confirmations will be after sustaining below its decider 21-Day SMA which is today at 21643.
As per Elliott Wave theory maximum target of On going impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3) is at 22231.95. Its calculations are as follows:-
Impulsive Wave-i gained=2912.8 points(18096.2-15183.4)
Impulsive Wave-iii gained=3394.15 points(20222.45-16828.3)
Impulsive Wave-v has gained 1453.75 points till 01-12-2023(20291.55-18837.80)
As according to Elliott Wave theory Wave-5 can not gain more points than Wave-3 gained therefore on going impulsive Wave-5 will gain lesser points than 3394.15.
Impulsive Wave-5 started from 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and it has to gain less than 3394.15 points therefore maximum target of on going impulsive Wave-5 is 22231.95(18837.80+3394.15)
As per on going Elliott Waves structure maximum target of On going impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3) is at 22231.95 and correction of Wave-(v) of Wave-3 begun just below it from 22124.2 on 16-01-2024 in following manner in previous week:-
1- Long "Shooting Star" Bearish Candle formation on 17-01-2024 in which once Nifty retraced 482 points and closed 461 points down on that day.
2- Nifty retraced 838 points in only 3 sessions between 17-01-2024 and 17-01-2024
3- Bearish Rising Wedge Pattern formation was being seen and its rising Lower line was broken down on 18-01-2024 as well as Nifty is hovering around it for the last 3 sessions.
On going Wave-3 has gained 5376.5 points till now during its up moves from 16747.7 to 22124.2. As Nifty has to correct Wave-3 up moves in which most likely Nifty will retrace all the 3286.4 points gains of Wave-(v) of Wave-3(From 18837.80 to 22124.2). It means that Nifty will slip below 18837.80 during expected correction which is just above 61.8%(18801) Crucial Fibonacci retracement level also.
Expected that Nifty will slip below 18801 during previous week started correction and Long Term Trend will also turn down because its decider 200-Day SMA is today at 19494 which is much above 61.8%(18801) Fibonacci retracement level.
As indicators are also suggesting some more down moves possibility in Short Term therefore on going correction continuation is expected in the coming week also. Although Pull Back rallies and Bounce backs will also be seen but Nifty will not move above 22231.95 before and after Interim Budget as well as expected that finally previous week started correction will remain continued below 18801 in the coming months.