Watch Levels for next Trend formation confirmations amid worsening
Israel-Arab war crisis
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 06 to Nov 10,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion after life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 at 19333.6 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 at 19849.8 on 17-10-2023.
9- Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023.
10- Pull Back Rally continuation for the last 7 sessions with its highest formations at 19276.25 on 03-10-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 which completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and and Corrective Wave-2 begun which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022 and Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 started.
Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completed after life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC' correction begun in the form of (iv) of Wave-3. Now its Wave-C continuation with recent bottom formations at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 63.98 & %D(3)- 52.52.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone.
4- MACD(26,12)- -344.70 & EXP(9)- -155.00 & Divergence- -189.7
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
1- As in Stochastic its %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising towards Over bought zone and has not turned Over bought yet therefore indicating some more up moves possibility in the coming week.
2- As in MACD indicator its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore it is showing downward trend formations and on going correction continuation possibility. .
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19114
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19429
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19545
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 19447
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18641
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Although Nifty has closed above 5-Day SMA but sustaining above it and 21-Day SMA is must for first signal of Short Term correction completion. As still Nifty has not slipped and sustained below Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA but Intermediate Term Trend is down because Nifty has sustained below its decider both 55 & 100-Day SMA which means that above mentioned above Averages should be watched in the coming weeks/months for next one sided Trend and next sided big moves beginning confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
Nifty-EOD Chart (03-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023 and Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 beginning.
3- Corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023.
4- Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-(iii) of Wave-3(16828.3-20222.45)
13.0%- 19,781.20
23.6%- 19,421.44
27.0%- 19,306.00
38.2%- 18,925.90(Crucial Level)-Retraced
50.0%- 18,525.40(Crucial Level)
61.8%- 18,124.89(Crucial Level)
70.7%- 17,822.80
76.4%- 17,629.30
78.6%- 17,554.60
88.6%- 17,215.20
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Fibonacci retracement levels)
As corrective Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation which will correct up moves of Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 according to Fibonacci Retracement levels therefore these levels have been updated above. 3 Crucial Level have been updated above because many times retracement completes at these levels.
Nifty has retraced 38.2% level and after testing this level Nifty has recovered 438 points from lower levels in last 6 sessions as well as closed at the top of last 6 sessions last Friday. As strong recovery was seen from 38.2% level therefore first signal of on going correction completion has been emerged in previous week.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(03-Nov-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (03-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Whole day sideways trading with selling indications between 19211-19276
2- Whole day actual trading between 19211-19276
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As all the Asian markets were trading with good gains and some were more than 1% up after previous day strong closing of US markets therefore sentiment turned Bullish and gap up strong opening of Indian markets was seen last Friday. Although such buoyant mood but whole day sideways trading was seen with selling indications therefore:-
1- Firstly sustaining above last Friday highest should be watched in the beginning of next week for next decisive up moves beginning confirmations.
2- Sustaining below last Friday lowest will mean correction continuation towards 18837.80.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend up.
2- Intermediate Term trend down.
3- Short Term trend is down.
Although some Arab countries have jumped into Israel-Hamas war to help Hamas and fear of Israel-Arab war escalation has been mounted but many Global Stock markets including Indian markets have shown good recovery from lower levels in previous week and Nifty has closed above the highest of last 6 sessions. As huge uncertainity and all the Global markets and Indian markets will react according to worsening or relaxation of this Global crisis therefore cautios approach adoption is must during Stock markets trading.
Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 continuation with recent bottom formations at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023. Although Pull Back Rally begun from this levels which is in continuation for the last 7 sessions with its highest formations at 19276.25 on 03-10-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD and intraday charts but firstly sustaining beyond 19211-19276 should be firstly watched in next week for its continuation/completion confirmations.
Although MACD indicator is showing downward trend formation but Stochastic indicator is suggesting some up moves possibility therefore more down moves can not be ruled out. Nifty is trading between 100-Day SMA & 200-Day SMA for the last 9 sessions and finally sustaining beyond these 2 Averages will confirm next Trend therefore break out of these 2 Averages should be watched for next Trend formation confirmations.