Finally fresh rally above Life Time Top after expected Short Term correction completion
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Nov 20 to Nov 24,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning.
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-3 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-(ii) of Wave-3 completion at 16828.3 on 20-03-2023.
6- Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 completion after life time top formations at 20222.45 on 15-09-2023 and Wave-A of "ABC" correction beginning.
7- Wave-A of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19333.6 on 04-10-2023.
8- Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 19849.8 on 17-10-2023.
9- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023 and impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 beginning.
10- Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation for the last 16 sessions with its recent high formations at 19875.30 on 16-11-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
New Waves structure started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 after corrective Wave-C previous Waves structure completion at this level. Now impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 continuation for the last 16 sessions with its recent high formations at 19875.30 on 16-11-2023 after corrective Wave-C of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3 completion at 18837.80 on 26-10-2023.
As per Elliott Wave Theory Wave-5 has to move above the highest of Wave-3 therefore on going impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 will move above highest of Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 which is at 20222.45. As highest of Wave-(iii) of Wave-3 is life time top also therefore on going Wave-(v) of Wave-3 will form new life timr top above 20222.45 in the coming week/weeks.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic- Its both lines are kissing in Over bought zone.
2- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 81.27 & %D(3)- 78.25.
3- Stochastic is showing negative divergence
4- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive and negative zone.
5- MACD(26,12)- 139.39 & EXP(9)- -70.43 & Divergence- 209.82
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- As in Stochastic its both lines are kissing in Over bought zone and this indicator is showing negative divergence also therefore suggesting Short Term correction beginning possibility in the coming week.
2- As in MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in positive and negative zone therefore showing indications of finally up trend formations possibility.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
1- 5-Day SMA is today at 19628
2- 21-Day SMA is today at 19346
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 19573
4- 100-Day SMA is today at 19525
5- 200-Day SMA is today at 18717
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
As Nifty has closed above all the Short to Long Term averages for the last 3 sessions therefore showed strong signals of all the trends turning up. Let Nifty to sustain above all the the averages in next week also and Short Term Average(21-Day SMA) to move above Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA) then will be confirmation of all the trends turning up and fresh rally beginning above life time top(20222.45)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(17-Nov-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Nov-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- More than 50 points up in first minute after 90 Points weaker opening.
2- Up moves with downward corrections in first hour.
3- Down moves with upward corrections in the last more than 5 hours.
4- Whole day actual trading between 19668-19806
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although 90 Points weaker opening last Friday but firstly more than 50 points up moves in first minute and after that again up moves with downward corrections in first hour therefore Nifty traded 40 points up also. As fresh selling started which remained continued in the last more than 5 hours through down moves with upward corrections hence good intraday selling will be understood and resultant firstly down moves are expected below last Friday lowest(19667.45) in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term trend is up.(confirmation required)
3- Short Term trend is down.
Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 is in continuation for the last 16 sessions with its recent high formations at 19875.30 on 16-11-2023 which is above the top of Wave-B of Wave-(iv) of Wave-3(19849.80) and it is confirmation of impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 formations for moving above the top of Impulsive Wave-(iii) of Wave-3(20222.45 on 15-09-2023).
Although Short Term indicator Stochastic is indicating Short Term correction beginning possibility but MACD is showing Up Trend formation signals also therefore expected that finally up moves will be seen after Short Term correction completion because Averages are also suggesting all the trends turning upward possibility. As intraday charts of last Friday are showing down moves possibility in the beginning of next week therefore sustaining beyond following supports should be watched in the coming week for the confirmations of expected correction continuation/completion:-
1- 19709-19720
2- 19651-19670
3- 19613-19646
4- 19495-19580(Gap support)
All the resistances above the closing of last Friday are as follows:-
1- 19760-19806
2- 19819-19858
3- 19932-19971
4- 19993-20050
5- 20051-20115(Gap resistance)
6- 20141-20167
7- 20172-20220
As above mentioned multiple resistances are also lying therefore follow up consolidation is also required for crossing life time top but expected that finally fresh rally will be seen after Short Term correction completion because Impulsive Wave-(v) of Wave-3 formations does mean up moves above life time top.