Firstly watch last 4 sessions trading
range amid crashing Global markets
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Mar 20 to Mar 24,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-[(i)] of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.
5- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.
6- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.
7- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 16850.2 on 16-03-2023.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
"ABC correction" of previous Waves structure completed at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and from this level Impulsive Wave-1 of new "Waves structure" started. Its impulsive Wave-[(i)] completed at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022 and corrective Wave-[(ii)] started which completed at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begun.Now its corrective Wave-C is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 16850.2 on 16-03-2023 and no confirmation of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction begining.
2- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-A of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 corrected 1113.3 Points.
4- Corrective Wave-B of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 16850.2 on 16-03-2023.
6- Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 has corrected 1415.1 Points till now.
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Corrective Wave-A of "ABC" correction started after impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022. Wave-A corrected 1113.3 Points till its bottom formation at 17774.3 on 26-12-2022 and from this level corrective Wave-B begun which completed at 18265.3 on 30-12-2022. From this level corrective Wave-C started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 16850.2 on 16-03-2023 after correcting 1415.1 Points till now and no confirmation of its completion yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Bollinger Band,Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (17-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Bollinger Band- Nifty is hovering around Lower Band for the last 5 sessions
2- Stochastic- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising in Over sold zone.
3- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 20.23 & %D(3)- 12.09.
4- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone
5- MACD(26,12)- -225.98 & EXP(9)- -202.32 & Divergence- -23.66
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Bollinger Band,Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Daily indicators are as follows:-
1- Bollinger Band:-
A- Nifty tested its falling Lower Band in first 4 sessions of previous week.
B- Nifty remained above its falling Lower Band in last session of previous week which is first signal of up moves beginning towards its Middle Band and Upper Band.
2- In Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward and its both lines are rising in Over sold zone therefore showing signals of Short Term up moves beginning.
3- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling in negative zone therefore suggesting Downward trend formations.
Nifty-Last 4 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 14 to Mar 17,2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 4 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 4 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 17024-17062
B- 17040-17066
C- 17137-17167
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 4 Sessions are as follows:-
A- 16959-17019
B- 16914-16969
C- 16955-16986
D- 16988-17070
3- Last 4 Sessions actual trading between 16851-17224
Conclusions from 4 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
Above supports were seen at lower levels in last 4 sessions during on going that correction which started from 18887.6 on 01-12-2022. As selling was also seen at higher levels between above mentioned resistance ranges therefore Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves within last 4 sessions trading range(16851-17224) which will be firstly done in the coming week. Let Nifty to to fistly prepare and finally to sustain beyond last 4 sessions trading range then that side big decisive moves will be seen.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(17-Mar-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (17-Mar-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Down moves after gap up strong opening
2- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
3- Consolidation between 16959-17019
4- Up moves with downward corrections
5- Whole day actual trading between 16959-17145
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although gap up strong opening last Friday but not sustaining at higher levels and down moves started immediately after opening. As Down moves started in Bullish Falling Channel after 1 hour and after that lower levels some consolidation also between 16959-17019 therefore up moves begun after 1:00 PM which remained continued till last minutes.
As last 2 hours up moves were with downward corrections also therefore whole day good consolidation will be understood last Friday and up moves are expected in the beginning of next week.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down .
3- Strong indications of Long Term Trend turning down after last 6 sessions closing below its decider 200-Day SMA which is today at 17451 and until Nifty will not sustain above it till then decisive up moves will not be seen.
Corrective Wave-C of Wave-[(ii)] of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 16850.2 on 16-03-2023 after correcting 1415.1 Points till now and no confirmation of its completion yet as well as indications of Long Term Trend turning down therefore more down moves can not be ruled out. Last Supports range within and below the lowest(16850.2) of on going correction is between 16760-16855. Immediate 3 resistance rangeS within last 4 sessions trading range(16851-17224) has been posted above. Next resistances above 17224 are as follows which are below and just above 200-Day SMA(17451) and should be watched for Long Term Trend formation next signals and confirmations:-
1- 17266-17293
2- 17378-17406
3- 17442-17473
4- 17491-17526
Although Stochastic indicator is showing signals of Short Term up moves beginning but MACD indicator is suggesting Downward trend formations also therefore fresh down moves beginning can not be ruled after some up moves. Lower levels consolidation in 4 previous sessions and last Friday also but Dow Jones closed 384 points down last Friday and US based Banks negative news led weakness iS being seen in all the Global Markets therefore firstly following levels should be watched in the beginning of next week:-
1- Last Friday lowest(16959)
2- Last 4 sessions lowest(16851)
3- Impulsive Wave-(i) of Wave-[(iii)] of Wave-1 beginning level(16747.7) because slipping below it will mean as per "Elliot Waves theory" recounting of whole on going waves structure which begun from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022.
As any decisive up move will be seen only after sustaining above last 4 sessions highest(17224) therefore firstly sustaining beyond last 4 sessions trading range(16851-17224) should be watched in next week amid crashing Global markets.