Watch crucial levels,supports and resistances for next trend formation confirmations amid Budget proposals led huge volatility possibility
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly
Outlook(Jan 30 to Feb 03,2023)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.
6- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure begun after corrective Wave-C of previous Waves structure completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022. Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 of on going Waves structure completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and after that corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 started which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.
Nifty traded sideways for the last 24 sessions like big period between 17762-18265 and this trading range was forcefully broken down on 27-01-2023 which has generated strong signal of corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation in the coming week/weeks
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17493.55 on 27-01-2023.
3- Last 24 sessions sideways trading range(17762-18265) broken down on 27-01-2023
4- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone.
5- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 27.96 & %D(3)- 46.19.
6- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line upward and its both lines are rising in negative zone.
7- MACD(26,12)- -26.91 & EXP(9)- -72.29 & Divergence- 45.38
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
As deeper correction beginning signals emerged last Friday after forcefully broken down of last 24 sessions like big trading range and Short Term indicator Stochastic is also suggesting some more down moves possibilities because its both lines are falling towards Over sold zone therefore some more down moves can not be ruled out in next week. Although in MACD indicator its both lines are are rising in negative zone and showing upward trend formation signals also but its both lines are just below 0.00 line therefore no confirmations and let its both lines to move into positive zone then will confirm strong signals of upward trend formations.
Both the indicators are showing adverse signals from each other therefore will be better to wait in the beginning of next week for the generation of one sided trend formation signals. Let it happen then should be understood from one sided trend formation signals from both these indicators.
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(27-Jan-2023)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (27-Jan-2023):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- More than 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel
2- 140 Points sharp recovery from lower levels in last hour
3- Whole day actual trading between 17494-17884
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
Although only 14 points weaker opening but after that down moves started which remained continued in the next 5 hours and once Nifty lost 398 points also. As these down moves were in Bullish Falling Channel therefore 140 points sharp recovery was seen from lower levels in last hour and Nifty closed 1.61% down last Friday.
As only intraday consolidation through more than 5 hours down moves in Bullish Falling Channel last Friday therefore view will not be Bearish and fresh consolidation with not sustaining below last Friday lowest(17494) will mean strong rally beginning in next week.
Conclusions (After putting
all studies together)
1- Short Term Trend is down.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is down.
3- Long Term Trend is up and finally sustaining beyond its decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17289) will confirm it after last Friday lowest formations(17493.55) little above it.
Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 continuation and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts but strong signals of its continuation emerged after last 24 sesseion like big sideways trading range forcefully broken down on 27-01-2023.
As Short Term indicator Stochastic has not turned Over bought yet therefore showing some more down moves possibilities hence correction continuation can not be ruled out in the beginning of next week but MACD is showing upward trend formation signals therefore fresh up moves beginning is expected after some more down moves.
Although once Nifty lost 398 points and closed 1.61% down also last Friday but whole day intraday charts are showing consolidation patterns formations and follow up consolidation with not sustaining below last Friday lowest will mean(17494) strong Pull Back rally beginning possibility which is expected also therefore sustaining above following crucial levels should be watched for decisive up moves beginning confirmations:-
1- Bottom of last 24 sessions at 17762 for 1st signal of decisive up moves beginning.
2- 100-Day SMA is today at 17950 for 2nd signal of decisive up moves beginning.
3- 55-Day SMA is today at 18259 for Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.
4- Top of last 24 sessions at 18265 for strong signal of corrective Wave-iv of Wave-1 completion and rally above life time top at 18887.6.
Next supports below last Friday lowest are as follows:-
1- 17381-17401(Gap support)
2- 17226-17374
Next resistances above last Friday highest are as follows:-
1- 17909-17941
2- 18109-18132
3- 18155-18192
4- 18216-18240
5- 18345-18387(Strong resistances)
As firstly Union Budget-2023-24 led uncertainty will prevail and finally Indian markets will react on Budget proposals also in next week therefore sustaining beyond above mentioned "crucial levels,supports and resistances" should be watched one by one in next week for next trend formation confirmations amid Budget proposals led huge volatility possibility.