Firstly watch levels after Corona
Panic led crash beginning
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Dec 26 to Dec 30,2022)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C of "ABC correction" completion at 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure beginning
2- Wave-i of Wave-1 completion at 18096.2 on 15-09-2022.
3- Wave-ii of Wave-1 completion at 16747.7 on 30-09-2022.
4- Impulsive Wave-i of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 17428.8 on 06-10-2022.
5- Corrective Wave-ii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 16950.3 on 11-10-2022.
6- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
7- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17779.50 on 23-12-2022
8- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-iii of Wave-1 slipped and closed below Rising Trend Line on 23-12-2022
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Waves structure)
Impulsive Wave-1 of new Waves structure started from 15183.4 on 17-06-2022 and in continuation with recent top formation at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022. Its impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completed at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022 and its corrective Wave-iv begun which is in continuation with recent bottom formation at 17779.50 on 23-12-2022 as well as no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-iii of Wave-iii of Wave-1 completion at 18887.6 on 01-12-2022.
2- Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17779.50 on 23-12-2022
3- Stochastic- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone.
4- Stochastic:- %K(5)- 8.62 & %D(3)- 18.69.
5- In MACD- MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling.
6- MACD(26,12)- -151.87 & EXP(9)- 4.73 & Divergence- -156.6
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Positions of Short Term indicators are as follows:-
1- In Stochastic indicator %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line downward and its both lines are falling in Over sold zone. Althouugh Stochastic is completely Over sold but it has not generated any upward move beginning indication therefore let it happen first then fresh up moves will be considered.
2- In MACD its MACD line has intersected Average line downward and its both lines are falling therefore confirming Downward trend formation.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (23-Dec-2022):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 18187.8
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 18493.3(Short Term Trend decider)
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 18091.01(Intermediate Term Trend decider)
D- 100-Day SMA is today at 17839.0
E- 200-Day SMA is today at 17185.1(Long Term Trend decider)
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Averages)
Nifty has closed below all the above Averages except 200-Day SMA last Friday after 01.77% down moves last Friday therefore Long Term Trend is still up. As Nifty has closed below Intermediate Term Trend decider 55-Day SMA therefore firstly sustaining it beyond should be watched in the coming week/weeks for final confirmation of Intermediate Term Trend formations. It shoild be kept in mind that confirmation of sustaining below 55-Day SMA will mean 3 Weeks to 3 months long weaker markets and deeper correction beginning possibility as well.
Conclusions
(After putting all studies together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is at stake and finally sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA will confirm it.
3- Short Term Trend is down.
Corrective Wave-iv of Wave-iii of Wave-1 continuation with recent bottom formation at 17779.50 and no indication of its completion yet on EOD charts. As Nifty has moved below both 55 & 100-Day SMA therefore high risk of Intermediate Term Trend turning down which will confirm more down moves with longer term on on going correction.
Although MACD has shown strong indications of Downward trend formations but Stochastic is completely Over sold and a Pull Back rally may be seen toward following next resistances after getting supports within or near about following next supports/levels.
Watch following Crucial levels;-
1- Sustaining beyond 55-Day SMA(today at 18091.01)for Intermediate Term Trend confirmations.
2- 16747.7 for validity confirmations of on going Wave-iii of Wave-1.
3- Long Term Trend decider 200-Day SMA(today at 17185.1) which is just above bottom of on going Wave-iii of Wave-1.
Next supports up to the bottom of Wave-iii of Wave-1 are as follow:-
1- 17724-17765
2- 17655-17712
3- 17477-17591
4- 17381-17401(Gap support)
5- 17226-17374
6- 17106-17219
7- 16941-17029
8- 16760-16855
Next resistances up to the top of Wave-iii of Wave-1 are as follow:-
1- 17867-17877
2- 17898-17956
3- 17993-18029
4- 18131-18180
5- 18172-18258
6- 18345-18387
7- 18559-18586
8- 18674-18696
9- 18832-18854
As Corona panic and due to it economic issues surrounded all around therefore panic developed in all the Global markets and resultant most Global markets including Indian markets crashed in last 3 sessions of previous week. Let some clarity comes first then will be decided accordingly and till then just watch above mentioned levels/supports/resistances for all the Short to Long Term Trends formation confirmations which will be according to sustaining beyond its above mentioned deciding levels.