Levels will confirm fresh big down
moves or next decisive up moves
Technical Analysis,Research &
Weekly Outlook(Mar 22 to Mar 26,2021)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Corrective Wave-C completion and Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 7511.10 on 24-03-2020
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 11794.30 on 31-08-2020 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 10790.20 on 24-09-2020 and Impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
5- Correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021
Conclusions from EOD chart
analysis(Waves structure)
The rally which started on 24-03-2020 from 7511.10 is in continuation and its impulsive Wave-3 completion strong indications after new life time top formation at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021.
Now Wave-3 correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021 and no confirmation of its completion yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Stochastic & MACD)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Stochastic %K(5) is at 23.11 & %D(3) is at 19.25
2- %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward
3- MACD line has intersected Average line downward
4- Last 32 sessions sideways trading range(14468-15421) broken down on 19-03-2021 but closing within it same day at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1
Conclusions from EOD chart
analysis (Stochastic & MACD)
As indicators and Nifty price action are not showing one sided moves in following manner therefore firstly Nifty has to prepare for next decisive moves in next week:-
1- As Stochastic has moves into Oversold zone and %K(5) line has intersected %D(3) line upward therefore suggesting some up moves in Short Term.
2- MACD line has intersected Average line downward therefore showing downward trend.
3- Although last 32 sessions sideways trading range(14468-15421) broken down on 19-03-2021 but closing was within it same day at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1 and strong recovery from lower levels therefore sustaining beyond last 33 sessions trading range(14468-15351) is firstly required for next trend formation confirmations.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Averages)
Nifty-EOD Chart (19-Mar-2021):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-3 completion indications at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021
2- Last 33 sessions correction continuation with recent bottom formation at 14350.1 on 19-03-2021
3- Double top formations
4- Averages:-
A- 5-Day SMA is today at 14772
B- 21-Day SMA is today at 14912
C- 55-Day SMA is today at 14688
D- 200-Day SMA is today at 12509
5- Last 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA)
6- Last 2 sessions hovering around Intermediate Term Average(55-Day SMA)
Conclusions from EOD chart
analysis (Averages)
Last 33 sessions correction continuation with Double top formations and previous 5 sessions closing below Short Term Averages(5 & 21-Day SMA) are showing that Short Term trend has turned down but Intermediate Term trend is at stake because Nifty is hovering around its decider 55-Day SMA. Let Nifty to sustain beyond 55-Day SMA then life of on going correction and next big moves will get confirmations accordingly.
Nifty-Last 2 Sessions
intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 18 & Mar 19,2021):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 2 Sessions intraday charts
1- 4 Hours selling between 14761-14875 on 18-03-2021
2- Sharp fall on 18-03-2021
3- Last hours support between 14479-14590 on 18-03-2021
4- 207 Points sharp fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening on 19-03-2021
5- Up moves with downward corrections on 19-03-2021
6- Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel on 19-03-2021
7- Up moves with downward corrections on 19-03-2021
8- Last 2 sessions actual trading between 14351-14875
Conclusions from 2 Sessions
intra day chart analysis
As 4 hours selling developed between 14761-14875 after strong opening on 18-03-2021 therefore sharp fall was seen after that but Nifty got supports in last hours between 14479-14590 and closed also within this support range.
As all the Asian markets were trading in deep Red on 19-03-2021 morning therefore 207 Points sharp fall in first 15 minutes after gap down opening but 186 points positive closing after strong recovery from lower levels with consolidations thorough Up moves with downward corrections and Down moves in Bullish Falling Channel.
4 Hours selling between 14761-14875 on 18-03-2021 and this range will be immediate resistances of Nifty as well as complete consolidation is firstly required for sustaining above 14875. As whole day consolidation on 19-03-2021 therefore complete fresh selling is also required for sustaining below last 2 sessions lowest(14351.10)
As both lower levels consolidation and higher levels selling was seen in last 2 sessions between 14351-14875 therefore Nifty will firstly trade and prepare for next decisive moves within this range and firstly sustaining beyond this range should be watched in next week for next decisive moves beginning.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long Term Trend is up.
2- Intermediate Term Trend is sideways between 14351-15421 for the last 33 sessions.
3- Short Term Trend is down
As last 33 sessions correction continuation with double top formations therefore strong indications of impulsive Wave-3 completion at 15431.8 on 16-02-2021. Although last 32 sessions trading range(14468-15421) was broken down on 19-03-2021 but strong recovery was seen from lower levels and Nifty closed within this range at 14744.00 after lowest formation at 14350.1 same day therefore 32 sessions trading range broken down no confirmation.
As finally sustaining beyond last 33 sessions range(14351-15421) will confirm life of on going correction and Intermediate Term Trend as well as big moves in following manner therefore should be firstly watched in next week:-
1- Sustaining above 15421 will mean fresh rally after correction completion.
2- Sustaining below 14351 will mean 33 sessions like big range broken down confirmation and resultant huge more than 10% correction of impulsive Wave-3
Next resistances above last Friday highest are as follows:-
1- 14761-14875
2- 14901-14949
3- 14997-15046
4- 15158-15196
5- 15201-15241
6- 15262-15319
7- 15335-15421
Next supports below last Friday lowest are as follows:-
1- 13817-13865
2- 13725-13776
3- 13606-13701
As sustaining below last 2 sessions trading lowest(14351) will generate strong indications of fresh big down moves beginning and sustaining above last 2 sessions trading highest(14875) will confirm next decisive up moves beginning therefore should be firstly watched in next moves for its confirmations.