Short term trading levels will produce first indication of next big moves
Technical Analysis,Research & Weekly Outlook
(Apr 27 to Apr 30,2020)
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Waves structure)
Nifty-EOD Chart (24-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns and Formations in EOD charts
1- Impulsive Wave-1 beginning from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 after 1 financial year(2015-16) correction completion
2- Impulsive Wave-1 completion at 8968.70 on 07-09-2016 and corrective Wave-2 beginning
3- Corrective Wave-2 completion at 7893.80 on 26-12-2016 and impulsive Wave-3 beginning
4- Impulsive Wave-3 completion at 11171.50 on 29-01-2018 and corrective Wave-4 beginning
5- Corrective Wave-4 completion at 9951.90 on 23-03-2018 and impulsive Wave-5 beginning
6- Impulsive Wave-5 completion after new life time high formation at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
7- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning
8- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis(Waves structure)
The rally which started from 6825.80 on 29-02-2016 completed at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and then corrective Wave-A of its "ABC" correction begun which completed at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020.
Now impulsive Wave-B of "ABC" correction continuation with recent top formation at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020 and no confirmation of its completion yet.
Nifty-EOD Chart Analysis
(Corrective Waves)
Nifty-EOD Chart (27-Mar-2020):-
1- Impulsive Wave-5 completion at 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 and Wave-A of "corrective ABC Waves" beginning
2- Corrective Wave-A completion at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and Wave-B beginning
3- Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020
4- Last 26 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602
Conclusions from EOD chart analysis
(Corrective Waves)
"ABC" correction which started from 12430.50 on 20-01-2020 is very much on,its corrective Wave-A completed at 7511.10 on 24-03-2020 and now its impulsive Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020.
Nifty
Last 26 Sessions intraday charts analysis
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (Mar 16 to Apr 24,2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in last 26 Sessions intraday charts
1- Selling(Resistances) in last 21 sessions between
A- 9254-9403
B- 9430-9584
2- Consolidation(Supports) in last 21 sessions
A- 8913-8972
B- 8700-8750
C- 8361-8449
D- 8056-8107
E- 7512-7970
3- Last 10 sessions(09-04-2020 & 24-04-2020) trading between 8822-9390
4- 26 Sessions actual trading between 7512-9602
Conclusions from 26 Sessions intra day chart analysis
As Last 26 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 with above mentioned higher levels 2 resistances and lower levels 5 supports therefore it will be understood that at present Nifty is not prepared for any side big moves and firstly will have to trade and prepare for those big moves within this range which will be firstly done in next week.
Let market prepare then will be decided according to intraday charts preparation and sustaining beyond or forceful break out of last 26 Sessions trading range(7512-9602) and its first signal will be after sustaining beyond last 10 sessions trading range(8822-9390).
Nifty-Intra Day Chart Analysis
(24-Apr-2020)
Nifty-Intra Day Chart (24-Apr-2020):-
Technical Patterns formation in today intraday charts
1- Consolidation between 9154-9227
2- Package news led volatility in last 4 hours
3- Whole day actual trading between 9142-9296
Conclusions from intra day chart analysis
As the news of Finance minister meeting with Prime Minister at 12 o'clock for Package to industry was in all the Business news channels since last Friday morning therefore firstly up moves were seen after lower levels consolidation between 9154-9227 but could not sustain at higher levels and slipped in last 3 hours after the news of meeting postponement.
Although closing was near the lower levels of the day but lower levels consolidation and volatility was seen in last 4 hours as well as clear selling patterns have not developed therefore firstly sustaining beyond last Friday lowest(9142) should be watched in the beginning of next week for decisive down/up moves beginning confirmations.
Conclusions
(After Putting All Studies Together)
1- Long term trend is down.
2- Intermediate term trend is sideways between 7512-9602 for the last 26 Sessions.
3- Short term trend is up.
Now Wave-B continuation with recent top formation at 9390.85 on 20-04-2020. As last 26 Sessions sideways trading between 7512-9602 and Wave-B is trading within this range since its beginning therefore finally break out of this range will confirm the life of Wave-B hence should be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks for Wave-B continuation/completion.
As 26 Sessions like big sideways trading period therefore finally break out of this range(7512-9602) will give more than 10% one sided following big moves:-
1- Above 9602 will mean Wave-B continuation towards following crucial Wave-A retracement levels:-
A- 50.0%- 9970 (Crucial)
B- 61.8%- 10551(Crucial)
{Fibonacci Retracement levels of Wave-A were updated in previous weekly Outlook(Apr 20 to Apr 24,2020)}
2- Below 7512 will mean corrective Wave-C(deeper correction) beginning after Wave-B completion confirmations.
As last 10 sessions(Short term) trading between 8822-9390 and finally sustaining beyond this range will produce first indication of above mentioned next big moves therefore should also be firstly watched in the coming week/weeks.